$50 NLHE 6-max: Making big pots with marginal hands

Deco

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$50 NL HE 6-max: Making big pots with marginal hands

This is a spot were i would normally go for pot control as even for someone this loose there are not many Kings I beat and this pot is gunna get very big if I bet.
However the board is very drawy and imo to have a VPIP of 73 you are playing all connected and suited cards so is it unreasonable to assign most their range to draws and make a very big pot with my marginal hand as they are not going to pay off a bet on the river with a draw now are they.

UTG: 73/1/22 (70hands)


SB: $50 (100 bb)
BB: $29.50 (59 bb)
UTG: $49.85 (99.7 bb)
MP: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $62 (124 bb)
Hero (BTN): $111.40 (222.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K:diamond: 9:heart:
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 6:diamond: 5:diamond: K:spade: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13.75) 8:spade: (2 players)
UTG checks


Should I bet and charge the draws or check to not inflate the pot?
 
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SONIC589

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I would bet again! You have TP and a gutshot straight draw. More than likely your ahead of villian! If the river is another drawy card and villian checks I would check also! If he bets I would proceed very cautiously!
 
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feitr

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This is not a marginal hand vs a person w/ a vpip of 73. I'd bet turn and bet almost every river - you can get called by so much worse on this board/vs this player.
 
Deco

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This is not a marginal hand vs a person w/ a vpip of 73. I'd bet turn and bet almost every river - you can get called by so much worse on this board/vs this player.

I did indeed bet the turn but don't you think betting the river is a little extreme. He may be an utter fishcake but tht doesn't mean he cant be dealt K6 or K8+ and even 70% VPIPs dunt stack off on 3rd pair or they simply wudnt have even reached 70hands before going bust :p
 
Richyl2008

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You don't have to bet really large on the turn or river. You could go like $9 on the turn and bet/fold for like half pot on the river. Size your bet to the type of hand your trying to get a call from. He can easily start with a drawing hand and backdoor something like 2nd pair and make a crying call. Preflop I might even size your isolation raise down to 3.5-4x. You don't need to make a big pot preflop since you probably don't have fold equity postflop, and your hand will rarely make something you'll be happy about stacking
 
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feitr

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I did indeed bet the turn but don't you think betting the river is a little extreme. He may be an utter fishcake but tht doesn't mean he cant be dealt K6 or K8+ and even 70% VPIPs dunt stack off on 3rd pair or they simply wudnt have even reached 70hands before going bust :p

Well your typical 70 vpip player will get to this river with MUCH worse than Kx and i assure you they certainly do call river with 2nd/3rd/4th pair hands, otherwise it wouldn't be suicide to try to bluff them.

Think about what you are saying - if villain can get to this river with far far wider than Kx and isn't going to call with 2nd/3rd pair then you should bluff this river 100% of the time and expect to see a giant profit; however, it should be pretty clear that bluffing a 70 vpip player is a bad bad idea because they suck and they can't fold. I certainly wouldn't expect villain to fold 78, 67, etc. type hands on the river. When you are playing small stakes you should be concentrating on extracting thin value, rather than trying to bluff (and this is a perfect example of a hand that seems marginal, but is actually a monster vs a 70 vpip calling station and one that you should be getting 3 streets of value). Think of it this way - the only difference between K9 and AK (which i'm sure you'd agree could get 3 streets) is KT-KQ and these hands are a tiny % of a loose passive calling range on the river. I'm not saying you have to bet this river every time, since it might actually be close vs some players depending on postflop tendencies and river card, since 73% of hands is narrowed way down when you consider flop and turn peeling range and river calling range. I'm just saying that you shouldn't be shy about betting hands for value against bad players by getting freaked out that this is the time they hit 2 pair or have KQ.
 
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SeanyJ

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Definitely bet the turn and the river, if he has you beat he will let you know with a raise. Bet folding is pretty much one of your greatest tools to use against someone like this. There is so many worse hands that a fish like this will call you with, you'll regret checking behind on the river for him to show you K4 or something.
 
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bfw0082

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I save the turn bet, as you say, to keep the pot small, he is calling you down, he most likely has you out kicked, best case is he pairs his second card with a diamond, that way he will lead out a bet and we can take his stake...

I check here because if Villain makes a river bet we can call and it will be the same as betting the turn. If we bet the turn, miss our two pair or flush then the river bet will be that much larger and we are out the same amount of money as we were by check calling, at least we have some chance to win with top pair.

I use this logic all the time, I play $1000NL on Carbon where Turn bets are roughly $250, and River bets can reach $500-$1000....

So I take pot size into consideration in each hand I get in, especially if I am weak praying on a draw.
 
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feitr

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I save the turn bet, as you say, to keep the pot small, he is calling you down, he most likely has you out kicked, best case is he pairs his second card with a diamond, that way he will lead out a bet and we can take his stake...

I check here because if Villain makes a river bet we can call and it will be the same as betting the turn. If we bet the turn, miss our two pair or flush then the river bet will be that much larger and we are out the same amount of money as we were by check calling, at least we have some chance to win with top pair.

I use this logic all the time, I play $1000NL on Carbon where Turn bets are roughly $250, and River bets can reach $500-$1000....

So I take pot size into consideration in each hand I get in, especially if I am weak praying on a draw.

This is absolutely horrible advice and should be completely ignored. You clearly do not understand the first thing about the point of taking a particular line in order to maximize EV.
 
widowmaker89

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I save the turn bet, as you say, to keep the pot small, he is calling you down, he most likely has you out kicked, best case is he pairs his second card with a diamond, that way he will lead out a bet and we can take his stake...

I check here because if Villain makes a river bet we can call and it will be the same as betting the turn. If we bet the turn, miss our two pair or flush then the river bet will be that much larger and we are out the same amount of money as we were by check calling, at least we have some chance to win with top pair.

I use this logic all the time, I play $1000NL on Carbon where Turn bets are roughly $250, and River bets can reach $500-$1000....

So I take pot size into consideration in each hand I get in, especially if I am weak praying on a draw.

Whats the minimum BI's someone should have to take a "shot"?
 
Deco

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Well your typical 70 vpip player will get to this river with MUCH worse than Kx and i assure you they certainly do call river with 2nd/3rd/4th pair hands, otherwise it wouldn't be suicide to try to bluff them.

Think about what you are saying - if villain can get to this river with far far wider than Kx and isn't going to call with 2nd/3rd pair then you should bluff this river 100% of the time and expect to see a giant profit; however, it should be pretty clear that bluffing a 70 vpip player is a bad bad idea because they suck and they can't fold. I certainly wouldn't expect villain to fold 78, 67, etc. type hands on the river. When you are playing small stakes you should be concentrating on extracting thin value, rather than trying to bluff (and this is a perfect example of a hand that seems marginal, but is actually a monster vs a 70 vpip calling station and one that you should be getting 3 streets of value). Think of it this way - the only difference between K9 and AK (which i'm sure you'd agree could get 3 streets) is KT-KQ and these hands are a tiny % of a loose passive calling range on the river. I'm not saying you have to bet this river every time, since it might actually be close vs some players depending on postflop tendencies and river card, since 73% of hands is narrowed way down when you consider flop and turn peeling range and river calling range. I'm just saying that you shouldn't be shy about betting hands for value against bad players by getting freaked out that this is the time they hit 2 pair or have KQ.


I'm not confident the combos of draws that have hit a pair along the way compare to the combos of Kings out there.

K5,K6,K8+, 55,66,88, 79s 74s 86combos
_____________________________________

78, 67, 77 99 Kd2d-Kd5d 75s K7 4d8d 55combos



ok countin those second combos was pretty hard and theres more than I thought (and i probably missed a couple) but so far this doesn't justify betting when we are not the favourite to win.
I'm sure we could debate on whether to add a few more combos in but i cannot see it getting to a number were the river bet is a mindblowingly obvious choice.

Add to his we are already making a presumption that this guy will make a crying call with these hands in the first place they shouldn't really be given the same weight as the upper hands were are opponent will certainly see us.
I think further presumptions (that he will call 3streets with K2o or that he will call down with A6 and many other bets that didn't have a draw as an excuse for the first two streets) is making our presumptions go truly wild and even then will not reach a significantly higher figure and should be weighted even more so.
 
dsvw56

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Honestly, against this player, if there was 8 streets to bet, I would bet them all until he raised.

Edit : You ninja posted me.


A) He's never folding any pair on the flop

B) He's never folding any draw on the flop

C) A lot of draws just made second pair + SD on the turn.

D) You picked up the straight draw as well

E) Only a couple of draws got there on the turn

You have every reason in the world to bet this turn, and no reason not to. Poker is an easy game and you're seriously over thinking very simple situations. Against a guy like this, with top pair, you should just keep betting until he raises. If he raises, you fold unless you have a monster. If he keeps calling, you keep betting. EZ game, imo.
 
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bfw0082

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This is absolutely horrible advice and should be completely ignored. You clearly do not understand the first thing about the point of taking a particular line in order to maximize EV.

I don't understand what you wrote here either.

maximize EV with increased risk while an underdog, I am lost...
 
Deco

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Honestly, against this player, if there was 8 streets to bet, I would bet them all until he raised.

Edit : You ninja posted me.


A) He's never folding any pair on the flop

B) He's never folding any draw on the flop

C) A lot of draws just made second pair + SD on the turn.

D) You picked up the straight draw as well

E) Only a couple of draws got there on the turn

You have every reason in the world to bet this turn, and no reason not to. Poker is an easy game and you're seriously over thinking very simple situations. Against a guy like this, with top pair, you should just keep betting until he raises. If he raises, you fold unless you have a monster. If he keeps calling, you keep betting. EZ game, imo.

I'm debating the river decision. tbh after counting the combos i feel a little embarrassed for posting the turn decision in the first place.
 
S93

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I don't understand what you wrote here either.

maximize EV with increased risk while an underdog, I am lost...

This is villains pre-flop range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.412% 79.55% 00.86% 602496 6507.50 { Kd9h }
Hand 1: 19.588% 18.73% 00.86% 141839 6507.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o,

Granted OP didnt post fold to c-bet stats but my guess would be a complete spaz like this villain is its some thing like 15%, witch means his range is something like this:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.883% 78.88% 01.00% 490042 6209.00 { Kd9h }
Hand 1: 20.117% 19.12% 01.00% 118765 6209.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }


How are we a underdog against this range?
Basicly villains range is more draws and second pair type hands then maked hands that beat us errgo we bet to charge thouse draws since missed draws dont call river bets.
And the logic lets let him bluff at us doesnt make much sense against calling station type villains.
 
c9h13no3

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I bet the turn & do a dance while I bet it, for the reasons Feitr & DSV mentioned. This is a 3-streets hand.
 
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bfw0082

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I dont see the risk reward in dealing with this player, he only has $50 to win, why build this large pot, when we can not get paid off at the end.

I don't think betting K 9 as a strong hand a very smart play, I highly doubt we are an 80% favorite here....

I also thought we had a flush Draw, but looking at it now, it is an unsuited hand...

I think your win 70% and this and that what ever doesnt make sense when the player is playing 1/2 the buy in, there is no reward for building a large pot.

I have been VERY successful at $1000NL and I have no clue all those numbers you put up there....

I am guessing they arent very important, I made my own odds, I look at Villains stack and use it to figure out risk/reward along with some other things, but I guess you all will have to wait until I write my book to learn them :p
 
c9h13no3

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I dont see the risk reward in dealing with this player, he only has $50 to win, why build this large pot, when we can not get paid off at the end.
Say no to drugs. Play money experience does not count as 1000$ NL btw.
 
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bfw0082

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haha funny, I have screen shots to show $0 to $9,000....

Played thousands of hands with DrexTheTex, Moose4Life, SmartAlex, Zulu, Xplicitagenda, nirzhar, Bob99999, pokerprodotsi, foxyuk, bullitpete, Cr4bbie, Nascar1949, DAduhWEEwah,

I can go on and on, the regulars on the big tables MERGE network

Cashed out in March, Spent December, January, February, March on these tables.
 
S93

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If im wrong im sorry.....
Just cause i was bored i did some research and the only playing history i found on any of the acounts in your profile is 0,01/0,02 and 0,02/0,05 on Fulltilt, all played April 3rd to May 1st(your 1$ down btw) 2009.
http://www.pokertableratings.com/fulltilt-player-search/usmc+assassin .

Why would a 5/10 "pro" that plays on Carbon be playing the smallest stakes on FTP?
 
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bfw0082

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I dont play on Fulltilt... never depo'd on FTP
depo'd Carbon in 2006 on neteller, havent depo since.

Ill start a look at how great I am thread,....
 
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