$50 NLHE 6-max: Live:3 handed river with the near nuts? calling instead of raising?

$50 NL HE 6-max: Live:3 handed river with the near nuts? calling instead of raising?

Sorry if this is a bad description, however it was live so i am recounting it in my mind.

I was the co with kjs. there was a 2 dollar in by player to my right, I called, 2 other callers. Two very loose agg players, one who is pretty tight passive. The flop is q 9 3, rainbow. The agg1 bets only 2 dollars, the other two call, so i also call to see my gutshot and over draw. turn is my miracle ten. agg1 bets 5, passive player folds, agg2 calls, I call. River is a 3. This somewhat worried me about a fh, but i still have the near nuts (especially considering what these two players had been showing down). agg1 checks, agg2 bets 12 dollars. I call, hoping the other player will call as well: i had seen him call the river with middle pair and worse type hands.

I had seen agg1 call many times when he was way behind, and in this situation if I had raised i was pretty sure I push him out. On the other hand, I didn't think that agg2 would call a raise with anything less than a fh (i have a tight image), and he is agg, but not reckless. Therefore, it seemed to me the way to make the most money is with a call not a raise. when it went to showdown, other players couldnt believe I didnt raise. I was just wondering what you guys think. Thanks for the help.

Well first of all I think you definitely should've raised the turn to at least $10, then you can make more on the river. You were IP too, have to raise there! Raise even more if that 10 on the turn made a flush draw...and remember someone else can have a J with say QJ, AJ since they're really loose...or less likely JJ. In that case they'd pay you off for their straight draw as well...

About the river, it depends on your read. If you are sure agg2 was bluffing or he really wouldn't call a raise with TPTK, 2 pair, trips or even a lesser straight sure just call since it's the correct decision in that situation.

But are you sure he wouldn't have called? He called without problems till the river and bet big - he was pot committed to a degree I would think...

ComplexPlaya said:

Well first of all I think you definitely should've raised the turn to at least $10, then you can make more on the river. You were IP too, have to raise there! Raise even more if that 10 on the turn made a flush draw...and remember someone else can have a J with say QJ, AJ since they're really loose...or less likely JJ. In that case they'd pay you off for their straight draw as well...

About the river, it depends on your read. If you are sure agg2 was bluffing or he really wouldn't call a raise with TPTK, 2 pair, trips or even a lesser straight sure just call since it's the correct decision in that situation.

But are you sure he wouldn't have called? He called without problems till the river and bet big - he was pot committed to a degree I would think...

Click to expand...

I can definitely see why I should have raised, that makes a lot of sense.

With the call on the river, I was pretty sure agg2 was bluffing, as he has a tendency to c flop, c turn, then bet big on the river on a bluff or semibluff with something like middle pair. However, he is on of the agg types who usually gives up to agg back at him. so I figured he would probably fold to my raise, unless he had been playing me for a sucker the whole time with a set(turning into a fh on the river). Also, agg1 is very loose, and makes lots of lousy calls so I thought it was more likely that agg1 called the bet than agg2 called my raise.

I'd play it the same way.. No way to get worse or better hand to call if you raised. Only FH will play back with a shove and you can't fold.

I have a simple rule for playing the river in similar situations - Don't raise if you can't call a shove.

If your read is solid on the river, then a raise probably has no real upside. However, I think people don't extend enough credit to what others will call with on the river. Then again, perhaps I value bet the river a tad too thinly.

You really should have raised that turn though. Only place you're going to get more value out of a hand like 10/j, a/j, q/j, etc. unless they suck out on you.