$50 NLHE 6-max: KK vs large reraise from unknown

polakpoker4

polakpoker4

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$50 NL HE 6-max: KK vs large reraise from unknown

HAND #1
--------------------

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $63.60 (127.2 bb)
BTN: $55.30 (110.6 bb)
SB: $72.90 (145.8 bb)
BB: $14.40 (28.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $50.75 (101.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with Kc Kd
Hero raises to $2, CO folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 4c 6c 2d (2 players)
Hero bets $3.60, BTN raises to $14, Hero ???


Okay, so this was like my 4th hand at the table so I pretty much have no reads. When villain flats on the button, I figure him for a pretty wide range here, something like decent suited Ax hands, pocket pairs and suited connectors. When villain pumps me that big on the flop, I'm putting him on a fd as a major part of his range as I don't see him going this heavy with a set on a board that misses most of my range.

My question is do you flat here and shove non club turn? Or do you come over the top and shove here? Thanks for any replies.
 
slycbnew

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I don't like playing oop here against an unknown - tbh, I'm usually going to fold here and watch how he plays hands for a future opportunity.

If I'm including overpairs and draws as a very large part of his range, I will usually come over the top on the flop oop.

If we're putting him specifically on a fd as a larger part of his range based on the raise size, I think we should be looking to c/r a non-club/non-straight turn rather than shoving the turn.
 
Deco

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I fold. This is a set most the time. Were either a small favourite to a flush draw or a huge dog to a set. Add to this that were out of position and I defo fold. without a read that he does apeshit with 77-TT or cold calls QQ/JJ I'm never calling.
 
BelgoSuisse

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you guys seriously fold this? I get it in all day long.
 
slycbnew

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you guys seriously fold this? I get it in all day long.

w reads, I'm more likely to get in - fish overvalue 99-QQ here and slowplay sets until the turn (or minraise their sets), and agg regs will definitely be raising w draws, so if I think he's one or the other I'll be happy to get it in - but I'm normally a nit here readless and take that play as a cue to study how he plays and hopefully get an opportunity to take a shot at him later.

Def not a mistake to get it in, I completely agree, but I didn't think it's a huge diff in Ev, sounds like you're confident it's -Ev to fold here even w no read? I'm sure I could be wrong here. Or is the size of the raise enough of a read, like polak is saying (I don't see a good reg raising that size whether it's a set, overpair, or a draw)?
 
ChuckTs

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yeah I jam.

He's going to be raise/calling lots of flush draws, worse overpairs, he could be a maniac stacking any pair, he could be bluffing tons...pretty easy stack for me.

sly: folding is always neutral EV. We're shoving because we think we're a favourite over his range, which we are most of the time against an unknown 50nl player.
 
Deco

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Belgo Chuck. I'm presuming you play higher stakes were people actually raise once in a blue moon?
Raising flushes is not the standard at 50NL. Neither is this 2NL were we can expect to see 99 and A6 here.

Seriously in my experience of 50NL most players ranges consist of sets here and negatively weighted flush draws. Heck I've booked this evening as a chance to get my head round Holdem analytics. I'm pretty sure its within that programs capabilities to define the range of people who raise the flop here for my stake.
 
ChuckTs

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Yeah you'll probably have a better grasp than I do of what the average 50nl unknown will raise with here, but I seriously doubt shoving is -EV, and therefore worse than folding here. His range might be more weighted towards better hands than an aggressive 200nl reg, but again I really doubt it's to the point where shoving is bad.

Analytics (now 'holdem vision', integrated into hem) is going to be useful for stuff like this, but without HUGE sample sizes we won't know what an %X flop raise cbet is going to mean without seeing shown down hands. Excited to see where people go with it though.
 
WVHillbilly

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I play 50nl, FR but that just means it's even nittier, and I get this in every time.

@ Sly, I don't like waiting for people to prove that they are fish. I'll let people prove that they aren't. If you wait for evidence that a player is bad it's often too late because they've already lost all their $$. I'd rather get 1st crack at them.
 
Deco

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This is my first shot at the ranges we stack off against.
Do these two groups not make up the majority of the players we face?
I haven't included the uberfish who will stack off 99 here as even the 30/10s don't do that it is a vast minority which do this sadly.The fold equity we get from the tag and the Lags bluffs isn't included as we don't stack off with it so pokerstove can't give an accurate representation of it. But even presuming the Tags range was 20% bluffs I still got only 33% equity.

Add to this that I have assumed that 50NL Lags never 3bet all those suited hands and that they always raise them (which they don't as 50NL LAGs suck.This is a scenario I see come up over and over again in the threads I aint saying am right I merely want a good discussion on this. Feel free to correct my ranges or call me a nit ;)
Tag's Range

Board: 4c 6c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.198% 20.50% 00.70% 2232 76.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 78.802% 78.10% 00.70% 8505 76.50 { 66, 44, 22, AcQc, AcJc, KcQc }

Tight Passive/set miners range

Board: 4c 6c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.260% 12.50% 00.76% 1114 67.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 86.740% 85.98% 00.76% 7661 67.50 { 66, 44, 22 }

Lags Range

Board: 4c 6c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.959% 41.43% 00.53% 9844 125.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 58.041% 57.51% 00.53% 13665 125.50 { 66, 5c5d, 44, 22, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c }
 
Deco

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@ Sly, I don't like waiting for people to prove that they are fish. I'll let people prove that they aren't. If you wait for evidence that a player is bad it's often too late because they've already lost all their $$. I'd rather get 1st crack at them.

Making the assumption that an unknown 50NL player will stack off with 77-99 here would be horrible. I'd have a double figured winrate if that was the case.:(
I believe to make this play we need the above assumption to be true. I'm confident it isn't.
 
WVHillbilly

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I disagree with your ranges Deco. Lots of OPs are raising that flop.
 
WVHillbilly

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Making the assumption that an unknown 50NL player will stack off with 77-99 here would be horrible. I'd have a double figured winrate if that was the case.:(

TT-QQ that wanted to see a "safe flop" will stack. 77-99 will sometimes stack. Pair + str8 draws might stack.

It's also a board that a lot of players with position and a couple of overs will raise just because it completely misses your range and you'll fold so often and when you don't they can still catch their pair or bluff you off an even bigger pot on the turn/river.
 
Deco

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I disagree with your ranges Deco. Lots of OPs are raising that flop.

I haven't included the uberfish who will stack off 99 here as even the 30/10s don't do that it is a vast minority which do this sadly.The fold equity we get from the tag and the Lags bluffs isn't included as we don't stack off with it so pokerstove can't give an accurate representation of it. But even presuming the Tags range was 20% bluffs I still got only 33% equity.

Yer I've gone and catergozied that under TAG bluffs as I don't think they stack off here.
Yes some bad players stack off and we get fold equity from bad Tags when they turn their hand into a bluff.

This makes my ranges a fair bit more negative than they should be. All the same I don't think it makes enough difference.
 
BelgoSuisse

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These are ridiculously narrow ranges. Villain is on the BTN. His range is super wide. Hell, I'm a nit and my range is super wide there. Pocket pairs 77+ are easily all there and all raising for protection. A bunch of suited cards that all have either a small pair, a gutshot straight draw or two overcards that villain may perceive as good, ...
 
BelgoSuisse

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Yes some bad players stack off and we get fold equity from bad Tags when they turn their hand into a bluff.

You have a very strange definition of "bad".
 
Deco

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These are ridiculously narrow ranges. Villain is on the BTN. His range is super wide. Hell, I'm a nit and my range is super wide there. Pocket pairs 77+ are easily all there and all raising for protection. A bunch of suited cards that all have either a small pair, a gutshot straight draw or two overcards that villain may perceive as good, ...

The ranges are stacking off ranges. As explained before I found it too hard to factor in fold equity using poker stove. I personally don't think it will make a difference but am perfectly open to being convinced otherwise.
 
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