$50 NLHE 6-max: JJ Preflop against aggressive 3better

$50 NL HE 6-max: JJ Preflop against aggressive 3better

BTN= 25/21 11% 3bet (50 hands)

With a decent sample size I would do this with air.
Is cold 4betting here too hasty or is 11% over 50 hands enough to suggest he is stepping out of line with his 3bets.

If you think the stat hasn't converged enough yet how many hands would you need?

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BB): $70.05 (140.1 bb)
UTG: $22.35 (44.7 bb)
MP: $70.60 (141.2 bb)
CO: $163.45 (326.9 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)
SB: $52.70 (105.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with J:heart: J:spade:
UTG calls $0.50, MP folds, CO raises to $2, BTN raises to $7.25, SB folds, Hero?

it's not really enough to conclusively suggest anything, given that because of the number of hands and %3bet you're only dealing with a sample that has 5 actual instances of villain 3-betting.

but we need to make assumptions from the information we have - so it wouldn't be out of line to assume that it's more likely villain is excessively 3-betting than not - and with the hand specified being a perfect spot for villain to 3-bet with a wide range (obviously because CO is generally opening with a pretty wide range), well, that only serves to strengthen our 'read'.

i think the real problem here is stacks. flatting isnt ideal because clearly we really don't want to play OOP against a wide range, shoving is excessive and we almost certainly only get called when dominated or flipping, and 4-betting to $20-25 leaves half or nearly half our stack in when playing OOP with the possibility of a lot of flops we're not necessarily going to like.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

but we need to make assumptions from the information we have - so it wouldn't be out of line to assume that it's more likely villain is excessively 3-betting than not - and with the hand specified being a perfect spot for villain to 3-bet with a wide range (obviously because you're opening from the CO with a pretty wide range), well, that only serves to strengthen our 'read'.

Click to expand...

I think he's BB; someone else opened in CO. Which of course doesn't make the analysis incorrect, just a tad more complicated as then we have to look at how wide CO opens and if Button knows this, ect. Plus we have to account for how CO might respond.


Heh, reminds me of the Hands Up game we did, Chris. Zach opened from the button, I 3 bet from SB, you 4 bet JJ from BB, Zach folded and I shoved. I remember Chuck saying in his video "I think I just flat JJ there" as you made the raise.

edited so now your post looks silly.

(cheers)

e: i don't think we can compare the two hands as we're OOP against the 3-bettor here and the 3-bettor goven our admittedly limited read probably 3-bets more than you do (and fwiw i think i remember that hand and agreed with Chuck - didn't you have AK and i folded to the shove or something trainwrecky like that?)

Dorkus Malorkus said:

it's not really enough to conclusively suggest anything, given that because of the number of hands and %3bet you're only dealing with a sample that has 5 actual instances of villain 3-betting.

but we need to make assumptions from the information we have - so it wouldn't be out of line to assume that it's more likely villain is excessively 3-betting than not - and with the hand specified being a perfect spot for villain to 3-bet with a wide range (obviously because you're opening from the CO with a pretty wide range), well, that only serves to strengthen our 'read'.

i think the real problem here is stacks. flatting isnt ideal because clearly we really don't want to play OOP against a wide range, shoving is excessive and we almost certainly only get called when dominated or flipping, and 4-betting to $20-25 leaves half or nearly half our stack in when playing OOP with the possibility of a lot of flops we're not necessarily going to like.

Click to expand...

+1 on the stacks - even if the stats have converged and it's likely he is light, I'm not thrilled with putting in 1/3 of our stack here, we're now assuming that both CO and BTN are light. I'm going to feel obligated to call a shove from either of them based on how much of our stack is in (neither should flat to our cold 4bet - yuck, I'm shuddering just thinking about it - I don't think we're going to play postflop after a 4bet), but I'm going to also feel really bad about calling a shove.

I'm folding even QQ in this situation (including the likelihood that the 3bettor is light), too much risk relative to reward imo.

NineLions said:

Heh, reminds me of the Hands Up game we did, Chris. Zach opened from the button, I 3 bet from SB, you 4 bet JJ from BB, Zach folded and I shoved. I remember Chuck saying in his video "I think I just flat JJ there" as you made the raise.

Click to expand...

In position with this hand, I flat as well, really hate playing JJ oop given the 3bet...

I've been giving this hand alot of thought.

I do this with air happily when I know this guys 3betting light as the fold equity is easily worth it.
QQ/JJ/AK I suspect will rarely be ahead here but can call here when we get shoved on.
Whether we call or fold when were shoved on seems to be the only difference in how we play 56o and JJ here.
Calling a shove with ranges this tight is basic maths and nearly always correct.
So surely if this is profitable to 4bet with air the fold equity that makes it profitable applies here also?
Then if they do shove and we have correct odds the call is EV+ as well.
So surely it is worth 4betting it in the first place as long as the fold equity is there?

This is blatantly great to do if we have a 3bet/4bet dynamic going on as were gunna get shoved on light and this counters well for all those times we have air and need to fold.
But should we be doing it without such a dyanamic?
Is my reasoning for this being +EV correct?
Or perhaps I should wait till I have air and avoid the increase in variance this will more than likely bring to my game?

I recently learnt from a stox video that if someone has a 3bet stat over 10% you can profitably shove Ax.
Can anyone mathematical confirm this?

If this is the case I suspect JJ is a no brainer here.
However as stated in the previous post I'm 4betting air here, JJs real value in this position would be after I've got a good dynamic going.
But alas just because I've gone and got a good hand shouldn't mean I have to fold.

this is a fold in this situation. With a call, a raise and a reraise, JJ is not a hand u want to be playing as ur most likely up against a bigger pair or at least 2 overs (AK AQ) so u r likely to be put to a tough decision on almost any flop excluding a flop with a Jack in it. U also have to consider what the original raiser has. He could easily have Aces and re-reraise so i think that u can easily fold considering u only have 1BB invested.