€50 NLHE 6-max: I just want to fold my set here.

Thinker_145

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iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 124.22 BB
CO: 115.04 BB (VPIP: 25.90, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 8.40, hands: 2,385)
BTN: 53.16 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 106.64 BB (VPIP: 26.60, PFR: 21.44, 3Bet Preflop: 7.93, Hands: 6,192)
BB: 191.94 BB (VPIP: 18.10, PFR: 14.42, 3Bet Preflop: 5.81, Hands: 7,509)
UTG: 67.08 BB (VPIP: 36.44, PFR: 5.17, 3Bet Preflop: 1.61, Hands: 121)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2:club: 2:heart:

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 4:diamond: T:club: 2:spade:
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 9:heart:
UTG bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 20.24 BB, CO raises to 44 BB, fold, Hero Really?

I check the flop because the CO loves to make a float bet. Him not betting is suspicious as it is to the point that I wouldn't really think he has 99 but 44/TT written all over this. Maybe he checks back 99 but noway he checks back T9 which is the only worse hand that can potentially 3 bet here. Given the stack and PFR of UTG I think the CO would understand that 3 betting TT isn't wise preflop.

There is just no way he makes this play with something like QJ. None of the regs make such an outrageous play at this level. No flush draw so really why not just fold? 22 always gets you in these spots but doesn't mean we always must go bust?

I know we aren't super deep or anything but this just seems so obvious to me. Do you think I am missing something here? Calling the turn only to fold to river jam doesn't make any sense to me. If I call here I am 100% calling the river.
 
John A

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Well you have to apply the fact that if he's going to check a set on that flop when it's checked to him, that he can check T9 as well. Obviously he should bet T9 much more often than a set. But yeah I think between him possibly checking 99, having 44, and I guess TT at these stakes, there's enough combos and strange action to fold bottom set.

Hurts to do though.
 
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Rorz1012

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CO seems to be a relatively decent player with those stats, however he's only going to have a set around 10% of the time, with an exaggerated range of 99+,44,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,ATo on the turn and therefore hero has an equity of 81%. While I agree, he could very likely have 10s,99 or 44, he has two pair more of the time (maybe even a slowplayed overpair?). Its a very strange hand considering he checked back on the flop but I think it is rather nitty for hero to fold here. I reckon a shove after the re-raise on the turn would be my play and if we ran into 10s,99s or 44, that's just an unfortunate cooler. Have a quiet rage move on.
Not too worried about UTG on this board as his stats tell me he's fishy (even with that sample size), his preflop bet size is strange and his PFR is very low, which would lead me to think he has two overcards.

So yeah, moral of the story, I think it's outrageous to fold here.
 
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No1eJoker

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No I would not fold here, he has neither 44 nor 99, he most likely have Jx!
 
John A

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CO seems to be a relatively decent player with those stats, however he's only going to have a set around 10% of the time, with an exaggerated range of 99+,44,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,ATo on the turn and therefore hero has an equity of 81%. While I agree, he could very likely have 10s,99 or 44, he has two pair more of the time (maybe even a slowplayed overpair?). Its a very strange hand considering he checked back on the flop but I think it is rather nitty for hero to fold here. I reckon a shove after the re-raise on the turn would be my play and if we ran into 10s,99s or 44, that's just an unfortunate cooler. Have a quiet rage move on.
Not too worried about UTG on this board as his stats tell me he's fishy (even with that sample size), his preflop bet size is strange and his PFR is very low, which would lead me to think he has two overcards.

So yeah, moral of the story, I think it's outrageous to fold here.

Sorry, but you think his 25/20 opponent of over 2.3k hands will be raising JT, 98, 87 and AT on that turn after a bet and a raise?

Yeah... that's pretty optimistic to say the least. Not to mention he has no real incentive with position to raise if he has a draw here. He's much more incentivized to just call and have UTG call as well.

T9/44/TT and 99 are the most likely hands and there's probably no air or draws in opponents range. I think we have to assume OP's opponent is semi-competent w/ those stats.
 
Omahahahaha

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It makes a lot more sense to check back T9 on the flop than it does to check back TT or 44.
 
DougPkrMonsta

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A lot of the time your instincts are right - if you think you are behind, seriously consider folding.

That being said there are enough weird hands that people show up with that I end up calling here against most players (I sleep very well lol).
 
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16clumsyandshy

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This is one of those hands that when you review later and see 44, it makes total sense. Feels like TT should be a squeeze preflop from this player, but I realize UTG is very tight, so maybe not. If villain has a set, why doesn't he just cold call your raise? I think T9 will raise for protection, whereas a set might try to keep other players in the hand.
 
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KFlint

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This is one of those hands that when you review later and see 44, it makes total sense. Feels like TT should be a squeeze preflop from this player, but I realize UTG is very tight, so maybe not. If villain has a set, why doesn't he just cold call your raise? I think T9 will raise for protection, whereas a set might try to keep other players in the hand.

That's what I was going to say, why would he raise a set here, seems odd as the board is not that scary and he has decent stats. I don't know what I would have done live, though call.
 
Thinker_145

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So just to update I didn't actually fold this hand. I tanked the turn but was running out of time so called. Then called the river shove and he showed TT. I think I would have folded this in a live game with enough time.
 
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mr_kommpa

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I play 10NL and would never fold in this spot, even regs show up with weird hands and I am also building a little bit of a table image.

At 50NL I can I can understand you making a fold here, I assume regs are playing fine even at there bad days so they should not be making a weird move here. But it is making a problem with your range, what are you calling with here then? 44+ I guess.

I think folding here is best at 50NL, you could probably get exploited but beacuse its a MW pot its kind of hard.
 
Diegol

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I would call in that spot, he could have some straight draws like QK JQ also 10 9 and even QQ JJ A10, i think he will have more bluff than valuebets in that spot
 
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CO: 115.04 BB (VPIP: 25.90, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 8.40, Hands: 2,385)

I check the flop because the CO loves to make a float bet. Him not betting is suspicious as it is to the point that I wouldn't really think he has 99 but 44/TT written all over this. Maybe he checks back 99 but noway he checks back T9 which is the only worse hand that can potentially 3 bet here. Given the stack and PFR of UTG I think the CO would understand that 3 betting TT isn't wise preflop.

If I call here I am 100% calling the river.

I think you have a good read on your opponent here. You've played 2400 hands, that being said I probably can't make that fold.
 
Aces2w1n

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A couple questions that should enter your mind.


1. How drawy is this board? Quite frank it's quite dry... so if he's now raising here he's either has us crushed or really overvalueing overpairs.

2. What mistakes is our opponent likely to make?
a. Overvalueing his hand strength? Likely to get it in with Overpairs here?
b. Bluff badly?
c. Only play strong with the top of his range?

3. How creative is our opponent here? Will he semi bluff an open ender?

4. Hand dynamics.... meaning how many in the pot? How the hand is played out.

................................................................................................


UTG bets 4.... and we raise.... our CO will see our strength and well really who doubles here with complete air seriously???? To think he's doing this with a semi bluff like an open ender... It's really hard to imagine.

Someone with his stats and how the hands played out and it's multiway.... it's a tight fold. If we are playing against fish or the hand was played out different i'd shove.



So yeah in summary.

Mistakes our opponent makes will be the deciding factor if we shove or fold here.

People unlikely to have 9/10 off here.. if it was suited and there was flush draw then it's more likely but we can reduce the % of him having that.

Bottom set is easy to fall in love with on dryboards and cost us a lot of money. But we need to make sure we change our play according to wet/dryboards.
 
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HalfordFairchild

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Monsters in the closet?

Sometimes set of set happens and you go broke. The odds are too long for that. 22 should be good here.
 
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pietpikel

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iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 124.22 BB
CO: 115.04 BB (VPIP: 25.90, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 8.40, Hands: 2,385)
BTN: 53.16 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 106.64 BB (VPIP: 26.60, PFR: 21.44, 3Bet Preflop: 7.93, Hands: 6,192)
BB: 191.94 BB (VPIP: 18.10, PFR: 14.42, 3Bet Preflop: 5.81, Hands: 7,509)
UTG: 67.08 BB (VPIP: 36.44, PFR: 5.17, 3Bet Preflop: 1.61, Hands: 121)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2<font color='black'>♣</font> 2<font color='red'>♥</font>

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 4<font color='red'>♦</font> T<font color='black'>♣</font> 2<font color='black'>♠</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 9<font color='red'>♥</font>
UTG bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 20.24 BB, CO raises to 44 BB, fold, Hero Really?

I check the flop because the CO loves to make a float bet. Him not betting is suspicious as it is to the point that I wouldn't really think he has 99 but 44/TT written all over this. Maybe he checks back 99 but noway he checks back T9 which is the only worse hand that can potentially 3 bet here. Given the stack and PFR of UTG I think the CO would understand that 3 betting TT isn't wise preflop.

There is just no way he makes this play with something like QJ. None of the regs make such an outrageous play at this level. No flush draw so really why not just fold? 22 always gets you in these spots but doesn't mean we always must go bust?

I know we aren't super deep or anything but this just seems so obvious to me. Do you think I am missing something here? Calling the turn only to fold to river jam doesn't make any sense to me. If I call here I am 100% calling the river.
Set over set in Holdem is a very infrequent event. If he has 44 or 1010 or 99 then so be it, but he could also have 9T suited or an overpair to the board. Either way, if he is not betting his set on the flop it's a mistake. He needs to build the pot and in dream land get the guy with the lower set (you) or 2 pair involved. It is sub-optimal for him to check there.

I don't fold here. If you are going to fold, then why did you call preflop with 22, because the flop is gold for you.
He has set over set so be it. Reload and go again.
 
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