$50 NLHE 6-max: Can i fold a set here? Pretty sure im behind villains range

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/20/2.2

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1936612
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $50.00
MP: $71.36
CO: $38.88
Hero (BTN): $66.98
SB: $50.00
BB: $39.36

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with T T
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.12, SB raises to $4.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.13

Flop: ($9.00) J 7 Q (2 players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($18.00) T (2 players)
SB bets $9.75, Hero calls $9.75

River: ($37.50) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $31.50 all in, Hero calls $31.50

so i have a fair few hands on villain. hes really 3b happy so i just flat pre hoping to hang him. hes not very aggro after 3bing which is lol, but thats why i call the flop as i know his 3b range in this spot is fairly wide and that hell check/fold the turn a lot

a few hands before he 3b me w ATo again from the SB when i was button and, flop came KTx rainbow and he check called 2 streets.

so when villain x3 barrel jams on me (inc ~pot OTR), is it reasonable to assume his range is JJ-AA, AK, AQ? i think AQ can be pretty heavily discounted as i dont think it jams the river on this board, but if that range seems legit, then this is a fold OTR considering im actually behind that range and am only getting ~2:1 on my call (after rake pot is like $35 when he jams in $31.50). thoughts?

I don't think he can expect you to fold after calling the turn on this board.

If he actually has the range you gave him (I gave him only AQs to discount the AQ hands heavily) it's a call. You need to be good ~32% and you have 40% equity against the range you assigned.

Edit: even if he never has AQs it still a call on the river with like 35% equity against JJ+/AK. So if he ever does this with an overpair it's a call.

baudib1 said:

I don't think he can expect you to fold after calling the turn on this board.

Click to expand...

thats what i mean, i literally never expect this to be a bluff obv, and since he played his midpair so passively the last time he 3b me he has to think he has the nuts here imo- whether KK/AA are the nuts to him here though im unsure... the only hand i could have here that folds is an awkwardly played KdTd i think :s

WVHillbilly said:

If he actually has the range you gave him (I gave him only AQs to discount the AQ hands heavily) it's a call. You need to be good ~32% and you have 40% equity against the range you assigned.

Edit: even if he never has AQs it still a call on the river with like 35% equity against JJ+/AK. So if he ever does this with an overpair it's a call.

Click to expand...

hmmmm i think i can only really give him AdQd cos im pretty sure other AQ combos dont play like this, but ye obv i didnt have the time to work this out while i was multitabling.

but ye i just stoved him myself giving him JJ+, AK, AdQd and ye 35%, so this is reaaaaaaally fkn close

its just so sick, i feel like im bluffcatching (slash picking off his overplayed overpairs which he has effectively turned into bluffs)

also, we do agree that ive ranged him pretty accurately, right? pretty raw to exclude KK and AdQd from this range but if we do then this is a shocking call. im so confuuuuuuuuuused

Honestly I think he'll always have some Axdd bluffs and you can't eliminate 77 either imo. Basically it's a hands you're going to lose a lot but you're going to win it often enough to always call.

WVHillbilly said:

Honestly I think he'll always have some Axdd bluffs and you can't eliminate 77 either imo. Basically it's a hands you're going to lose a lot but you're going to win it often enough to always call.

Click to expand...

actually yeah, 77 should def be in his range. yup i agree think i have to call, cheers. i really dont think he can x3 barrel bluff a busted draw on that board though if he isnt even willing to Cbet mid pair as 3ber unless hes just a total spazbox

If you're going to discount AQ then discount AA/KK. Because really, shoving the river with AA/KK is batshit crazy. His most likely hand is going to be AK and it's not really close.

You don't show KQ,QJ,JT or combos of K-T in your range of villain. From his POV, you are button stealing, so he will showup for that in the sb with many broadway hands.

It may be that you got coolered here, but I think your were right to call. A 2 pair hand will act the same.

dj11 said:

You don't show KQ,QJ,JT or combos of K-T in your range of villain. From his POV, you are button stealing, so he will showup for that in the sb with many broadway hands.

It may be that you got coolered here, but I think your were right to call. A 2 pair hand will act the same.

Click to expand...

No. 2pair is not looking to get it in here. 2pair is betting a lot more than half pit. On the flop and turn instead of playing that slow imo.

He also doesn't just think I'm button stealing. He knows that when I call his 3b it's game on (why he was checking through top pair mid kicker the rotation before as the aggressor)

QJ is literally the only 2p combo he could maybe have that plays like this. Thinking he value shoves the river w KQ or even JT is just lol. Sure, those hands are in his range pre but they're discounted by the river because we know how villain plays.

baudib1 said:

If you're going to discount AQ then discount AA/KK. Because really, shoving the river with AA/KK is batshit crazy. His most likely hand is going to be AK and it's not really close.

Click to expand...

It's lolbad I know, but I still can't be sure villain doesn't think overpair-da but I do know he doesn't do this w TPTK

Fold flop.

Does villain have a high enough 3-bet for us to 4-bet pre? I'd prefer that.

Turn & river play themselves IMO.

I think you can find a fold on that river vs most regs, especially this one. I'd 4bet TT here though most likely, don't really like giving all his air 2 streets or being blown off the best hand on some flops

Acky & c9, do you guys just like popping it up to $11ish then folding to a ship?

I call,look at AK and make a note.

JCgrind said:

Acky & c9, do you guys just like popping it up to $11ish then folding to a ship?

Click to expand...

4-bet folding is pretty spewy to me.

4 bet/calling off pre is a lot more spewy, also losing a tonne of value against a high % 3 bet villain.

Your flat pre is the optimum play here.
I'm prob folding flop though because it just hits his range really hard, and were going to have to play for pretty much our stacks here a lot of the time, which is never good in your case/hand.
When you hit your 'miracle' turn, you just have to call off all streets as, literally there is nothing else we can do as we've hit or set in a 3 bet pot.
We're beating nothing on the river only a bluff but there are a lot of hands that are in villains range that have missed, also the amount of times he overplays worse hands, so yah just call it off and kick yourself after for not folding flop.

c9h13no3 said:

4-bet folding is pretty spewy to me.

Click to expand...

at a higher level game id agree, but hes never 5b jamming worse (bar AK, in which case im willing to sacrifice $2.50 of EV and just gtfo), as his 3b range is the nuts + weird merged hands that fold to a 4b so calling ia 5b jam off imo isnt really an option.

The Messiah said:

4 bet/calling off pre is a lot more spewy, also losing a tonne of value against a high % 3 bet villain.

Your flat pre is the optimum play here.
I'm prob folding flop though because it just hits his range really hard, and were going to have to play for pretty much our stacks here a lot of the time, which is never good in your case/hand.
When you hit your 'miracle' turn, you just have to call off all streets as, literally there is nothing else we can do as we've hit or set in a 3 bet pot.
We're beating nothing on the river only a bluff but there are a lot of hands that are in villains range that have missed, also the amount of times he overplays worse hands, so yah just call it off and kick yourself after for not folding flop.

Click to expand...

yeah it does hit his range pretty hard. he was just so weak postflop that i couldnt bring myself to call it a day my bad

JCgrind said:

at a higher level game id agree, but hes never 5b jamming worse (bar AK, in which case im willing to sacrifice $2.50 of EV and just gtfo), as his 3b range is the nuts + weird merged hands that fold to a 4b so calling ia 5b jam off imo isnt really an option.

Click to expand...

If he jams AK & QQ+, we have a call. $2.50 in EV is a lot preflop. And you have enough hands on this guy to know his 5-bet range? And you don't think he's adjusted to you since then? Assumptions about a player's 5-bet range are typically just that, poor assumptions.

4-betting is probably better against this guy for sure.

I thought we 4b vs polarized and called vs merged. Wait no that makes no sense w TT. FML

JCgrind said:

Acky & c9, do you guys just like popping it up to $11ish then folding to a ship?

Click to expand...

$10 and obviously not folding our monster you mad bro

JCgrind said:

I thought we 4b vs polarized and called vs merged. Wait no that makes no sense w TT. FML

Click to expand...

I think you got it the wrong way around


edit: fwiw i think calling instead of 4betting is ok too but that river is such an easy fold imo. Look at the board, it smashes our perceived range, think of the standard of regulars, he'd need to be firing 3 streets with Ax a ton here for us to justify calling really

acky100 said:

$10 and obviously not folding our monster you mad bro

Click to expand...

rly only 20BB? thats kinda small man, or is the intention to make him 5b spew? not sure if serious or sarcasm when you say obv not folding?

acky100 said:

I think you got it the wrong way around

edit: fwiw i think calling instead of 4betting is ok too but that river is such an easy fold imo. Look at the board, it smashes our perceived range, think of the standard of regulars, he'd need to be firing 3 streets with Ax a ton here for us to justify calling really

Click to expand...

yeaaaaaaaaaaah i did hahaha. well ye i thought easy fold too btu then i did le' math. thought it definitely made for a curious spot and a good strat discussion. much better than 'guiz, was it okay to stack off with aces pre?'

What does this villain think of you, or have numbers on you.

Im deadly serious about 4bet calling and 20bb isn't really small here. It does the job perfectly, i laugh at people who still 4bet to 25bb cause 2p2 said it was standard back in the day. It's really hard to play against people who 4bet small because your 5bet ships are worth less, and they risk less so can 4bet bluff slightly more to begin with i guess, whereas when they 4bet to 25bb we are probably going to be 5bet stacking with a very similar range so that hurts their bluffs more, and if they do become unbalanced towards bluffs we have huge incentive to ship wider.