Originally Posted by baudib1
I don't think he can expect you to fold after calling the turn on this board.
thats what i mean, i literally never expect this to be a bluff obv, and since he played his midpair so passively the last time he 3b me he has to think he has the nuts here imo- whether KK/AA are the nuts to him here though im unsure... the only hand i could have here that folds is an awkwardly played KdTd i think :s
Originally Posted by WVHillbilly
If he actually has the range you gave him (I gave him only AQs to discount the AQ hands heavily) it's a call. You need to be good ~32% and you have 40% equity against the range you assigned.
Edit: even if he never has AQs it still a call on the river with like 35% equity against JJ+/AK. So if he ever does this with an overpair it's a call.
hmmmm i think i can only really give him AdQd cos im pretty sure other AQ combos dont play like this, but ye obv i didnt have the time to work this out while i was multitabling.
but ye i just stoved him myself giving him JJ+, AK, AdQd and ye 35%, so this is reaaaaaaally fkn close
its just so sick, i feel like im bluffcatching (slash picking off his overplayed overpairs which he has effectively turned into bluffs)
also, we do agree that ive ranged him pretty accurately, right? pretty raw to exclude KK and AdQd from this range but if we do then this is a shocking call. im so confuuuuuuuuuused