€50 NLHE 6-max: How to proceed with flopped nut flush draw?

Thinker_145

Thinker_145

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Total posts
848
Awards
1
Chips
1
iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 82.3 BB (VPIP: 79.71, PFR: 2.90, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, hands: 71)
CO: 135.98 BB (VPIP: 24.66, PFR: 16.40, 3Bet Preflop: 5.97, Hands: 29,275)
Hero (BTN): 121.38 BB
SB: 224.42 BB (VPIP: 23.90, PFR: 18.83, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 1,755)
BB: 103.2 BB (VPIP: 23.42, PFR: 18.47, 3Bet Preflop: 5.87, Hands: 8,348)
UTG: 124.66 BB (VPIP: 36.66, PFR: 25.52, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 440)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: 8:spade:

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 13.5 BB, MP calls 12.5 BB, CO calls 10.5 BB, Hero calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (54.5 BB, 4 players) T:spade: 5:spade: J:club:
BB bets 34 BB, fold, fold, Hero ??

That is surely a committing bet so no fold equity of shoving. We are totally priced to shove against QQ-KK but certainly not against JJ and AA. I do feel that bet size is unlikely with JJ and we block AA. So are we good to shove? Do you think it would be a terrible play to call the flop and fold a brick turn?
 
Lorpugo

Lorpugo

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2017
Total posts
495
Chips
0
with overcard and this draw i am shoving but i do play only microstakes and i am not very good player...
 
froggeedogs

froggeedogs

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2017
Total posts
291
Chips
0
shove or call

I would be tempted to raise here but the BB would probably call as half his stack is committed now. you have good odds for flush. If you just call, then you do have the option for a fold on the turn, but half your stack (almost) is in the middle. kind of a 50/50. tough spot.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Against range {TT+} hero has 38.9%, hero shoves 87.7bb to win 197.9bb, needs 44.3%. Given board is drawy villain most likely don’t fold, but sometimes might making shove vs fold egal.

If we read villain is nit 3 bettor in this spot, which might be the case because 3bet is so low, his range is QQ+ and we get 43.4% equity, again pretty much egal, but if we have any fold equity shoving comes profitable.

So doesn’t matter too much what you do?

If you call, you need to win rest of his stack about 25% of the time to break even, this sounds possible because you have the position? So call is my guess.
 
Last edited:
No1eJoker

No1eJoker

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2017
Total posts
1,877
Awards
14
Chips
0
I would call and see turn
 
Q

QA77

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Jan 30, 2017
Total posts
504
Awards
1
Chips
3
I don't think its terrible to call but folding on the turn doesn't seem great. Hands you could have here would be 1010, JJ, maybe 55. And you can go either way by calling or shoving the flop with those.

You would have 55bb and 122 already in the pot so folding 55bb to win 177 seems like a bad play to me. I would end up going with this hand on the flop or calling it off on the turn.
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 29, 2012
Total posts
4,966
Awards
1
Chips
1
Quite honestly I fold pre. I know you're getting a good price, but dude you are range f***** so often here.

As played, sigh. I guess we could raise and get it in, or we call, but then we fold turn alot.... at least you get paid off if you hit if you raise. A is probably good, and we have flush outs too of course, and a potential back door straight as well.

One could argue we could just flat, and dude might not stab air like A-Q or A-K on the turn. But he probably has PP like QQ or KK here, and he could def have JJ. Board is wet, I probably bet like that w/top set as well.


Honestly though, I probably just raise/get it in on the flop. It's whatever. But, we gonna lose roughly 65% of the time?


However, I really don't like the spot pre. Just fold IMO. We will often be faced with dicey spots post flop, and it all stems from the pre flop decision, compounding into a bit of a tough spot post.
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,492
Awards
3
Chips
37
Against range {TT+} hero has 38.9%, hero shoves 87.7bb to win 197.9bb, needs 44.3%. Given board is drawy villain most likely don’t fold, but sometimes might making shove vs fold egal.

If we read villain is nit 3 bettor in this spot, which might be the case because 3bet is so low, his range is QQ+ and we get 43.4% equity, again pretty much egal, but if we have any fold equity shoving comes profitable.

So doesn’t matter too much what you do?

If you call, you need to win rest of his stack about 25% of the time to break even, this sounds possible because you have the position? So call is my guess.

Not picking on you, but your math is off by a good amount. Hero is getting over 2:1 on his shove, and he has at least 40% equity versus opponents range.

The correct play is shove, even w/ no FE. It's not really very close.

But pre-flop is the debatable point in the hand. Fish only has ~80bbs, hero has position and a good price, but we're not super deep vs the people we'd want to be deep versus. It's close call/fold.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Not picking on you, but your math is off by a good amount.

Hero is shoving 89 to win 232 better? 34 was missing I assume (89+54.5+34 +55)

= 38%

Equity I stand for, because I gave the range {TT+}

Not arguing what you said, just I want to know if I have something more wrong here.
 
Last edited:
Full Flush Poker
Top