$50 NLHE 6-max: Flopped set facing a small donk on turn with a straightening and flushing board.

Cafeman

Cafeman

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$50 NLHE 6-max: Flopped set facing a small donk on turn with a straightening and flushing board.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed)

UTG ($56.41)
Hero (MP) ($57.75)
CO ($46.66)
Button ($81.97)
SB ($39.23) - 42/32/3, 3bet = 12%, WTSD = 25%, W$SD = 60%, 200 hands.
BB ($69.36)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9
diamond.gif
, 9
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1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.50) 4
diamond.gif
, 9
spade.gif
, 10
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(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.50) 8
heart.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $4.50, Hero ?

What do we make of this small donk bet on the turn? Is it a weak 10 trying to block and get to showdown cheaply? Is it a semi-bluff on a FD/SD? Is it a made straight? 2P? Difficult to narrow down villain's range too much as he is very loose. I just have no feel for what this bet might represent, and therefore what to do about it. Any thoughts?
 
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baudib1

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What's his donk%?

He's mostly blocking with some sort of mediocre SDV that picked up equity on the turn: J8, KJ, AJ, AQhh, etc.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Pretty gross turn card.

I bet the flop for near pot. Its such a wet board, someone will call, and we want max value.

As you say, its difficult to narrow villains range since he's so aggressive. If we can, we want to at least make these guys think they have fold equity. I think the board is running out in such a way that we can't call though. He's got $30ish behind, I think I just raise this to $18. It commits him, and maybe we can get him to think he has fold equity, and he'll shove his 8-out draws that should fold if we shove ourselves.

The other line is to call, and never fold the river. This guy is a stabbing & bluffing machine, and if we call here, we certainly get a half pot bet from him on the river. But I think the board is wet enough and our hand is strong enough that I'm just going to try and play a big pot on the turn.
 
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baudib1

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There's a mistake in here somewhere because stats listed are for SB, who folded on turn. BB has a much larger stack.

River is going to be tough to play because of stack sizes, I'd still raise pretty big because I don't feel he has us beat here.
 
Cafeman

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Oops, yes those stats are the BBs of course.

Thanks for your input, and I wish I had taken line #1 c9! However, I called and then the river was 7c. So it went check/check (I should have bet/fold river maybe). He showed QdTd. so he turned a GS to go with his TP.

I think I should stop playing for a bit, cos I've taken a couple of bad beats and that always turns me into Mr weaktight.
 
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baudib1

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Determining whether donks are fish betting small with the nuts because he doesn't want to lose customers or someone pot-controlling a showdown value hand can be really difficult and is one of the most important reads you can get. In general though, this kind of line from this play is always a pot-control/block bet because he'd c-r or donk flop with big draws like flush draws or open-enders and either c-r or donk huge with a straight on turn.
 
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