$50 NLHE 6-max: flopped set facing cbet - im lost?

Munchrs

Munchrs

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$50 NL HE 6-max: flopped set facing cbet - im lost?

This is a super common situation I find myself in where I really dont have a clue whats the best line to be taking on this hand.

THis is just an example of a general concept I want to discuss. Is calling and raising the turn better or just straight raise the c-bet to try so I have more leverage when I do this as a bluff to take down the pot?

Whats my line?

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HAND 1
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$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


Hero (BTN): $50.50 (101 bb)
SB: $19.15 (38.3 bb)
BB: $12.15 (24.3 bb)
MP: $55.25 (110.5 bb)
CO: $54.55 (109.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 6c 6s
MP folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) Td 5h 6d (2 players)
CO bets $2.50, Hero ?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Against maybe 80% of all players, I raise my sets on the flop. The ones I don't do it versus are the ones where they follow the basic pattern of "always cbet, barrel the turn only with air and monsters and check every other hand" - which is a common enough way to play for a lot of people that I think it comes out to about 1/5 - that I'm near certain of will play that way.

Against all the rest, just raise the flop when you have a set. Calling the flop and raising the turn is only better the times when he will VERY often bet again on the turn, because almost the only range that continues after your turn raise is the same that you stack off if you just raise the flop to begin with, but you get the added value of having him bluff a few extra dollars into you some of the time.

But for most opponents, those extra dollars won't make up even nearly enough to cover the immediate loss of raising the more passive opponents who will cbet the flop but not necessarily bet the turn with most hands (and there are a lot of those players). They'll call flop raises too often in general, though, and you REALLY hit the jackpot when they spazz out and think you're full of crap and 3-bet bluff shove. It doesn't happen often, but it's so valuable when it happens that it adds quite a few dollars of EV to raising the flop.

On this PARTICULAR flop, raising is mandatory versus 100% of opponents. With the straight and flushdraws available, there's a greater than average chance that he'll shove with a draw alternatively put YOU on a draw that not raising is borderline criminal. He'll shut down a lot of his value range on the turn if it's a third diamond and look to get to showdown cheaply. If you raise the flop, you can stack him when he's trying to get to showdown. If you don't raise the flop, you win half his stack as he's trying to play pot control - big difference.
 
Munchrs

Munchrs

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I think you just made a whole heap of sense to me FP. tyvm, pure gold.
 
Z

Zybomb

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Im basically reiterating FP's response but yea Easy Raise in this spot for the reasons mentioned.

To expand a bit further, on drawy boards like this a few things generally happen.

- Villains are prone to call raises down lighter (I'd pretty much never fold an overpair here readless) because of the fact that you can be raising a drawing hand

- A lot of the time there are action killers that hit the turn and river.

This meaning, we aren't necessarily raising our set to protect against the straight or flush draw bc we think that villain is on one (although he certainly could be), but more so because we don't want a draw to complete and kill our action. If we call and a diamond comes it slows both of us down. If he bets again we aren't super comfortable raising and if we bet he isn;t going to get a lot of money in the pot without a flush of his own. Straight cards are less readable, but stll should slow the action down somewhat.

Finally since I assume we're raising draws a lot HU IP raising sets is obvious for meta purposes to balance out our raising range


Exceptions to this would be if you have a read of some kind that villain will toss one pair hands to raises (in which case you should be raising your draws a boatload against this villain) but if you call he puts you on a draw and will make big bets on the turn if the draw blanks
 
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