$50 NLHE 6-max: Flopped oesd facing check raise from lag

At the time of the hands villains stats were 46/37 over 46 hands. 3bet was 16%, fold to cbet 0% (0/3), AFq 60%

Since this guy doesn't seem to like folding to cbets and is aggressive I really don't want to fold to his check-raise. His value raising hands are only really 66 and 88. Maybe he raises KQ/AQ as well but must people don't. So I think most of the time he has flush draws or just complete air. The problem is if I 3bet he may shove his flush draws and we'd have to fold cos they have us crushed. Calling doesn't seem that appealing either as he is probably going to barrel a lot of the time on the turn which will suck when we don't hit one of our outs. We're also not exactly loving it if we hit a 4 or 9 of hearts. So I guess that leaves folding as the best option but it just feels likes we're too easy to run over if we do that. Thoughts?

888 Poker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $52.29 (VPIP: 21.78, PFR: 16.83, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 105)
UTG: $55.35 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 22.34, 3Bet Preflop: 10.81, Hands: 195)
MP: $60.98 (VPIP: 22.16, PFR: 18.51, 3Bet Preflop: 6.77, Hands: 1,553)
CO: $62.23 (VPIP: 21.98, PFR: 17.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.51, Hands: 810)
Hero (BTN): $50.75
SB: $50.00 (VPIP: 40.79, PFR: 34.21, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 78)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 5:diamond: 7:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.31, SB calls $1.06, fold

Flop: ($3.12, 2 players) 6:heart: Q:heart: 8:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets $2.00, SB raises to $7.00, Hero?

If you feel he's aggressive and doesn't fold to cbets then the flop might be a good time to check back and keep your cbet stat in check (see what I did there). Don't know your reasoning for firing. Anyway, reraising as played would be terrible and calling with the intention of shoving over his inevitable turn bet is pretty ugly too imo, so yea folding is best here. Don't worry about being run over too much when you have 7 high. Your equity is quite poor in this spot.

Check back the flop. Your draw isn't that good and this is a flop he will play back at a ton.

Flop c-bet is standard.
Checking back this flop based on a 0/3 FCB is vile.
We've an openended straight draw ffs.

I call once we are raised, we cannot 3bet a draw this weak as there's no way we can comfortably stack it when 4bet. Treat this call as a float, if he checks turn take it down if he bets a reasonable size fold, we'll be folding to turn barrels an awful lot but we've great odds, 6outs with great implied odds, 2 alright outs, and we'll take it down when checked to on the turn a decent amount.

Villain is continuing on the turn just about always. Yes he'll have a good portion of bluffs and semi bluffs (which is why it's problematic to call off $5 with the intention of folding on the turn over 80% of the time.... you're not always going to get his stack in even if you bink), but if those hands give up at all they're more likely to do so on the river than on the turn.

Cbetting vs this villain is not standard by any stretch of the imagination it's borderline spew. And lol at calling here to float. I think you've been watching too many training videos of high stakes players.

Regarding the flop bet, my point was not to try and say it's a mistake but rather to get OP to think a bit about what impact his perception of villain has, if any, as he constructs a plan for this hand. Deco is right that the cbet here on Qxx twotone is pretty standard at 50NL but of course you're right yourself that checking back this hand on this board against this player is perfectly fine, and I'd take up that debate with anyone who considers it "vile" if they want to get into it.

I guess I'll also add that Deco is a pretty good player (I've been reading his posts on 2p2 for years) and even though I often don't agree with him I don't think I'd ever tell the guy he's been watching too many training videos. Heh.

I'd 3-bet the flop before checking back or folding vs. this guy. I mean, are you guys serious. His range is capped at around QJ/KThh.

lol

If he can actually fold, I like 3 betting the flop and GII, however if he is an aggro fish, then just fold and next time wait for a hand. If you don't know yet, I would just fold.

By GII do you mean calling off his 4 bet shove? There's no range you can give him where calling a flop jam isn't a significantly -EV. Giving this player an opportunity to 4 bet jam semi bluffs value hands etc is a terrible result for us should he go ahead and do so. You could jam yourself with the 3 bet, but it's kinda ridiculous given the pot size and a very expensive way to find out if he's bluffing or not. There are much better ways to make money at 50NL than to hope that players are going to check/raise/fold twotone flops... particularly bad players like this guy who play too many hands (enough that he has various 2 pair combos in his range) and don't seem to like folding.

I agree on the sentiment about folding and waiting for a better spot, but I think flat calling the raise is the way to go for anyone intent on continuing with this hand.

There are literally no better spots to make money than playing a big pot in position vs. someone who has a weak range.

baudib1 said:

There are literally no better spots to make money than playing a big pot in position vs. someone who has a weak range.

Click to expand...

That's a great reason to iso with a hand like for example 66 when a bad player limps in front of you (as you can play a bigger pot in position against a wide range). It's ~not~ a great reason to stack off with 7 high. I don't care how weak his range is you're still winning a showdown next to never without sucking out, and so you're clearly much better off being the first to get your stack in instead of the second. Jamming over the turn bet is superior to what you advocate. At least he has a chance to consider folding his Axhh since that's obv not happening otf.

Fold preflop. Not really likely to be profitable playing 57s even IP against this guy since he's going to 3bet wide, you're not going to make the best hand often enough, and he hates folding.

WVHillbilly said:

Fold preflop. Not really likely to be profitable playing 57s even IP against this guy since he's going to 3bet wide, you're not going to make the best hand often enough, and he hates folding.

Click to expand...

That's a good point actually, I automatically raised it but i do need to tighten my range right up against these guys that 3bet so much. What would your range be here on the btn when there's this guy in the blinds as well as an 8% 3better in BB?

High cards with medium+ kickers, also 4 bet them sometimes or flat call hands like KJ when you are IP as you will have them dominated.

DunningKruger said:

That's a great reason to iso with a hand like for example 66 when a bad player limps in front of you (as you can play a bigger pot in position against a wide range). It's ~not~ a great reason to stack off with 7 high. I don't care how weak his range is you're still winning a showdown next to never without sucking out, and so you're clearly much better off being the first to get your stack in instead of the second. Jamming over the turn bet is superior to what you advocate. At least he has a chance to consider folding his Axhh since that's obv not happening otf.

Click to expand...

Who says we're stacking off? ISOing 66 vs. a limper isn't creating a big pot, either. And he never has Axhh here.

Folding 6 clean outs to the stone-cold nuts is just totally LOLable in most spots and even more so when we don't have to hit to win.

I dunno about fold pre..

OMGITSOVER9K said:

I dunno about fold pre..

Click to expand...

With 14% and 8% 3betters in the blinds I don't think you're stealing often enough to make it outright profitable and like I said he doesn't like to fold so unless we make a hand we don't win postflop either. Need some high card value against this opponent.

folding pre definitely good

baudib1 said:

And he never has Axhh here.

Click to expand...

This is definitely wrong. I could pull up very similar HHs from this limit where the flop check/raiser showed up with the nut flush draw. A lot of those players may not be quite as loose as this player appears to be but I don't see how that would help your claim that he never has Axhh. If you've honestly never seen it then I have to ask just how much volume do you have at 50NL in the past year or two?

baudib1 said:

Folding 6 clean outs to the stone-cold nuts

Click to expand...

A minor correction here but there are only 3 outs to the stone nuts.

baudib1 said:

we don't have to hit to win.

Click to expand...

You don't have to miss to lose, because if villain jams over your 3bet (regardless of whether it's for value or a bluff) you have to forfeit your equity in the pot. To bet/3bet/fold your draw in position otf is probably the worst possible way anyone can play this hand.

DunningKruger said:

This is definitely wrong. I could pull up very similar HHs from this limit where the flop check/raiser showed up with the nut flush draw. A lot of those players may not be quite as loose as this player appears to be but I don't see how that would help your claim that he never has Axhh.

Click to expand...

It's not a matter of postflop, it's narrowing his range to hands he flats with.

Generally speaking, someone who 3-bets 16% is 3-betting any Axs and most Kxs vs. BTN open.

maybe I dislike folding SC's pre-flop OTB.

say situation was the same vs 2 regs in the blinds (pretty common spot in my games) we still folding?

OMGITSOVER9K said:

maybe I dislike folding SC's pre-flop OTB.

say situation was the same vs 2 regs in the blinds (pretty common spot in my games) we still folding?

Click to expand...

If they are 3betting as much as the 2 guys in this example, yes.

baudib1 said:

It's not a matter of postflop, it's narrowing his range to hands he flats with.

Generally speaking, someone who 3-bets 16% is 3-betting any Axs and most Kxs vs. BTN open.

Click to expand...

This 3bet stat is based on literally 40something hands so I wouldn't rely on it to extrapolate what this guy may or may not flat from the BB or what he decides to do against hero in particular. I think we can agree that villain will get to the flop with various flush draws even if you don't think he can have the nfd.

The post flop action is more pertinent here. I haven't read a good reason yet why we should be trying to make this 50NL player fold on the same street he just check/raised us. It's a terrible play in this spot imo, but maybe if someone else who agrees with that line offered an explanation for me then a different perspective would help me understand the rationale better.