$50 NLHE 6-max: Flop nuts in bloated pot, but nuts change on river

Villain is 45/15/1 3bet=13% over 150 hands. No concrete reads apart from this single note: "HUGE STATION - DNB!!!"


poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players

BTN: $91.03
Hero (SB): $53.27
BB: $32.46
CO: $27.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with K A
CO calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, BB calls $2, 1 fold, BTN calls $2

Flop: ($8.00) J Q T (3 players)
Hero bets $5.23, BB folds, BTN calls $5.23

Turn: ($18.46) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.08, BTN calls $12.08

River: ($42.62) 9 (2 players)
Hero ...

At the time I was obviously betting to get it in on the river (33 into 42). However, a backdoor flush comes in on the river. Do we still shove here? His range for getting this far is probably fairly wide, since he doesn't like folding, but is he such a numpty that he calls a shove here with 2 pair, a set, or a worse straight or something?

Shove ainec. He calls with any 8/K and probably calls all 2pair hands. The BDF is so remote that it shouldn't be a consideration.

fwiw I like betting bigger on the turn since he's basically always calling there but may give up on certain rivers. Make it $16.

Shove, he will be showing up with the flush such a small portion of the time that I don't think it's worth putting much consideration into, I would guess he has a K and chased the dead straight draw

Yeah i shove, 15 on turn too he's always gonna chase his draws and not fold a TP or 2pair or trips

Yes, I can see now that betting more on the turn would have been better.

At the time I wasn't concerned at all about the flush in terms of him having it, but more from the pov that he is now looking at a straight/flush board, and we all know how scary those look if all you have is a set/2P whatever. I wondered if shoving here was going to get called by his entire range, or just by his straights, or not even...?

Obv he actually had the flush himself lol, totally unexpected (A6s). But my initial question isn't whether we should be concerned about it (because it is such a tiny part of his range), but how it affects his calling range. I guess stations are gonna station no matter what right. Thanks for your input.

Bigger on every street.
$3
$6.50
$15

*Villain is a station
*Many pair+Gutshot hands will not pay off big shoves on the river and many twopairs/top pairs may be scared off by 4straight boards.

Not shoving the river would be absolutly vile vs anyone nevermind a station!

What WVH said

Yeah, I wouldn't worry about the flush in this hand. And it looks like he wants to call with a worse hand.

Shove for value, sir!

Did I miss it? What happened?!?

Panamajoe said:

Did I miss it? What happened?!?

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I c/f river obv

Deco said:

Bigger on every street.

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this, but you're not used to big things so I'll let you off

Jurn8 said:

this, but you're not used to big things so I'll let you off

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Thanks for your contribution mate, much appreciated.

Cafeman31 said:

I c/f river obv

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Nyuk Nyuk, wise guy eh?..... sorry I asked

I shoved.

Cafeman31 said:

I shoved.

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TYVM, figured. And he didn't have that fifth spade right?

Panamajoe said:

TYVM, figured. And he didn't have that fifth spade right?

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...

Cafeman31 said:

Obv he actually had the flush himself lol, totally unexpected (A6s). But my initial question isn't whether we should be concerned about it (because it is such a tiny part of his range), but how it affects his calling range.

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DOH!

I should read more carefully, geesh!