$50 NLHE 6-max: bet sizing on all streets

slycbnew

slycbnew

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$50 NL HE 6-max: bet sizing on all streets

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/16/3

Standard spot, nothing mysterious, I'll explain why I'm posting later if anyone cares.

Villain stats over 150 hands, 3bet% is 1.5, 6% on btn.

Betsize on all streets?

Whatever the betsize on the river, why?

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $68.80
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $50.65
SB: $50.00
BB: $85.00
UTG: $50.65

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with A:club: K:heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 3:heart: J:diamond: 6:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.40, BTN calls $3.40

Turn: ($11.55) A:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $6.95, BTN calls $6.95

River: ($25.45) 6:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets ???
 
Z

Zybomb

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I'd probably b/f this river with a blocker bet of $10ish although Im not quite sure what we're getting value from given that we've lead every street. C/Cing seems bad since villain doesn't bet worse too often... I almost wanna say c/f this river but that seems so nitty. Villain's calling range on the turn is strange. Unless he has a flush or AJ what is he peeling with that we beat? QhJx maybe or JhQx/Tx?? I prefer check/calling the turn since betting folds out a lot (/all?) of hands we beat, and checking masks our hand strength and might get us called down light on the river. Had I checked the turn and it checked behind I like leading the river for sure, but here I just dunno... unless villain is the type to peel w AQ or something I dunno what we beat once he calls our turn bet. I think its close between b/f and c/f unless villain is good enough to turn QhJx type hands into a bluff (or bad enough to call the turn with some nonsense and then bluff the river), in which case I'd c/c
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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I prefer check/calling the turn since betting folds out a lot (/all?) of hands we beat, and checking masks our hand strength and might get us called down light on the river. Had I checked the turn and it checked behind I like leading the river for sure,

Anyone else like this line? Does the nut fd impact this at all?

What does the turn betsize $6.95 into $11.55 look like to Villain?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I really, really, really think you should bet the turn. Your sizing is good. The reason for it is that he will call with weaker flushdraws pretty often (e.g. QhJh, ThTx, etc). I don't know if he can have 54s, but that's another hand we'll pick up some value from, plus various A-x hands that floated the flop. Not all opponents will float AT in position, but enough of them will that there's definite value in betting. Throw in AQ some of the time, also. Some of the time (half?) he'll try to get to showdown cheaply with JT, too, hoping that you'll give up on the river.

Optimal line for the river is harder to figure out but betting is definitely +EV, so I'd probably go with that by default. Check/calling might be better if we think he can have busted draws or turn some of his 9h9x into bluffs, but I don't think he will very often on average, so I probably just bet my hand. Probably $14 with the intention of folding to a shove; if he wants to bluffraise I'd think he'd do it on the turn, and he didn't.

Flop bet-sizing is fine.
 
Z

Zybomb

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Optimal line for the river is harder to figure out but betting is definitely +EV, .

Given that we've raised pre, bet the flop, bet the turn and bet the river What are you expecting to get value from on the river that we beat? Random AQ/AT(?) hands peeled and hit the turn and just go into calldown mode w top pair? Anything else? Do these hands show up more often than AJ or small flushes? Are they calling the majority of the time they do show up anyway?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Given that we've raised pre, bet the flop, bet the turn and bet the river What are you expecting to get value from on the river that we beat? Random AQ/AT(?) hands peeled and hit the turn and just go into calldown mode w top pair? Anything else? Do these hands show up more often than AJ or small flushes? Are they calling the majority of the time they do show up anyway?

No individual hand is going to show up very often, but there's just so many hands he thinks he can catch bluffs with. J-x is the obvious candidate for a value bet (KJ, QJ, JT), but also weaker aces, TT, etc. Yeah, he's not going to play TT like this very often, but those little percentages of times that he does play mediocre strength hands like these outnumber the flushes, sets and AJx hands he can have. At least I think they do.

Combinatorically, there are at most 15 combos of flushes (I'm taking a stab on this and exaggerating the numbers a bit - the fact that he can't have Ah or Kh should make his flush range quite a bit smaller) and then there's 3 combos of JJ, 1 of 66 and 3 of 33. Throw in Ac6c and AA for giggles, too, and we have at most 24 combos that beat us on the river. We probably need to discount that range quite a bit given the way he played, but by how much is debatable. Contrast that with him playing KJ, QJ, JT, J9, AQ, AT, QQ, KK, 99, TT like this even just some of the time (and making a hero call) and I think we'll be +EV to bet. I'm obviously not saying that he'll make a hero call with 9h9x very often here, just that it happens sometimes and those sometimes add up when you have a lot of different hands that he will sometimes show up with.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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fwiw, you guys nailed why I posted the hand - thanks.
 
Z

Zybomb

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I should probably expand on the turn decision also.

At higher stakes I really like betting the turn, simply bc it's such an obvious scare card that we should be double barreling with our entire range. Because of this villain should call with all pairs and certainly pair/ flush draws.

Here though, Im not giving villains credit for this line of thinking, and am assuming they are reverting to 'damn he cbet the flop and got there on the turn...good hand i fold' although I agree that QJ with one of them a heart will probably peel. I then think that the fact that villains calling range on the river becomes incredibly wider if the turn goes check check and we get value out of lesser hands, so checking the turn both disguises our hand and allows more value from the lower part of villain's range.

I've never played this low so I may be underestimating the abilities of players at this level (which is why I try not to respond to threads below 1/2 stakes but I've been opening up since there seem to be a lot of low limit and micro stakes grinders here) and they may be taking the thinking level of 'we are always double barrelling this turn' and thus call a lot and betting is correct, but i really don't know.

I still think the river is very weird though. Im not sure what we're getting value out of by blocker betting, I dunno what bluffs we induce by checking (Im assuming villains arent creative enough to turn QhJx or ThTx into a bluff here and there aren't reallymany draws that missed assuming most hearts have a pair as well), I dunno what value bets that we beat, and c/f ing seems super nitty. So basically all decisions suck. Rather than blocker bet/fold anormal 'blocker' amount, I might even try an incredibly small bet (like $5) with the intention of calling a raise since the bet is designed to get villain to spaz out. I dunno?? :confused:
 
slycbnew

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I've never played this low so I may be underestimating the abilities of players at this level (which is why I try not to respond to threads below 1/2 stakes but I've been opening up since there seem to be a lot of low limit and micro stakes grinders here) and they may be taking the thinking level of 'we are always double barrelling this turn' and thus call a lot and betting is correct, but i really don't know.

I've actually been shocked by how lightly I'm getting called on the turn, even from Villain's w reasonable TAG stats like this (I took a break from NLHE for a couple of months, still getting back into the swing of it) at 25nl and 50nl. My stats are pretty tight and not bluffy (though my style does change based on table dynamics), so I don't think it's a reaction to my play - I think it's more a case of "call and pray that my 2nd pair/TPGK/draw/whatever hits a miracle river".

I've been playing this spot as bet turn for between 1/2 and 2/3 pot, and have been switching back and forth between b/f river for a little over half pot (I bet $14 on this hand) and c/c river to catch bluffs if I think Villain's capable of it (I'm not getting enough value that way, I'm rarely catching bluffs on the river), and was posting this to make sure I'm not losing value due to betsizing.
 
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