Originally Posted by Zybomb
Given that we've raised pre, bet the flop, bet the turn and bet the river What are you expecting to get value from on the river that we beat? Random AQ/AT(?) hands peeled and hit the turn and just go into calldown mode w top pair? Anything else? Do these hands show up more often than AJ or small flushes? Are they calling the majority of the time they do show up anyway?
No individual hand is going to show up very often, but there's just so many hands he thinks he can catch bluffs with. J-x is the obvious candidate for a value bet (KJ, QJ, JT), but also weaker aces, TT, etc. Yeah, he's not going to play TT like this very often, but those little percentages of times that he does play mediocre strength hands like these outnumber the flushes, sets and AJx hands he can have. At least I think they do.
Combinatorically, there are at most 15 combos of flushes (I'm taking a stab on this and exaggerating the numbers a bit - the fact that he can't have Ah or Kh should make his flush range quite a bit smaller) and then there's 3 combos of JJ, 1 of 66 and 3 of 33. Throw in Ac6c and AA for giggles, too, and we have at most 24 combos that beat us on the river. We probably need to discount that range quite a bit given the way he played, but by how much is debatable. Contrast that with him playing KJ, QJ, JT, J9, AQ, AT, QQ, KK, 99, TT like this even just some of the time (and making a hero call) and I think we'll be +EV to bet. I'm obviously not saying that he'll make a hero call with 9h9x very often here, just that it happens sometimes
and those sometimes add up when you have a lot of different hands that he will sometimes show up with.