$50 NLHE 6-max: AK oop flop TP, do we triple barrel?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/10/0.72

Villains stats over 77 hands, F3B is 1/4

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $73.13
MP: $52.19
CO: $16.95
BTN: $44.26
SB: $63.76
Hero (BB): $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K:diamond: A:heart:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, fold, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN calls $3.00

Flop: ($9.25, 2 players) 9:spade: K:heart: 2:heart:
Hero bets $6.00, BTN calls $6.00

Turn: ($21.25, 2 players) J:spade:
Hero bets $13.00, BTN calls $13.00

River: ($47.25, 2 players) J:club:
Hero bets $26.50 and is all-in, BTN calls $20.76 and is all-in

smaller OTF and yeah tripling looks fine

edit:second thoughts the J is super bad for us but i still think a 40/10 is going to have enough worse to call and hes getting a good price but im starting to doubt myself already! doing uni work atm (or supposed to be) but count the combo's of his range that get to the river, seems like a ton of them are trips and straights our blockers to his kx also sucks big time

So are we x/c or x/f the river here?

just tested out my new 4 bet pot bet sizing skills and it worked a treat. Seems like we get calls way more often.

If we can get value from more combo's than we are beat too, we can bet. You'd also have to guess how often he would bluff when checked too or bet a worse hand, i'll probably end up working it out once all this uni work is done but i think you should do it cause its good practice

its not to get calls more often but yeah it just works better with your range, it gets folds on dry boards just the same as a half pot bet would and it still allows you to get stacks in with hands that want to get stacks in

Dont know how I got to 50nl being this bad! Must be on a mega heater.

Ah I see, we're realistically only getting called by Kx. Theres shit loads of combos that beat us. Do we count each available K as a combo.

For example, 2 combos of Kx that will call.

KQ = 8 combo's cause theres 2 left he can have and 4 queens he can have

QT = 16 combos 4*4

tricky bit is getting his opening range right, it should be more than 10% cause of hes position, so maybe 15-20%? was he opening more in lp etc

What about AK? Does that count as more combos. I have my HUD set by position but over such few hands its pretty irrelevant. I think its fair to say he would be opening QT.

3 aces left 2 kings so 6 combos, keep going

Haha okay, I understand now. So thats effectively 14 combos we beat.

The combos of QT alone mean we shouldnt bet right.

Then we have 8 combos of JT, 8 combos of QJ, 4 combos of KJ. Doubt 99 would have been dormant until the river, same for JJ.

So thats 36 combos that beat us and 14 combos we beat. We could maybe add KT for another 8 combos but I doubt we get that many calls, both pre and otr from KT.

So betting is bad right?

i think you can include KT and possibly K9 (but he might raise this otf) but this is where we kind of dont know too much and you can see how you could get two totally different answers pretty easily, depending on how much Kx the fish raises here (some will raise all Kx on the button and never fold a K, others might be more reserved) we might be giving fish too much credit here though he could also equally likely be raising a shit ton from the button and never folding T9 or something

Betting doesnt look great atm though, think its maybe easy to make a mistake and bet here and i probably have done if i thought it was an ok bet at first, notice the importance of blockers!

Can we really x/f here though with stack sizes? I doubt hes bluffing often but we'd be getting 3:1 on a call.

So we'd need to be good 25% of the time, how many combo's of bluffs do you think are in his range? Does he check behind missed flush draws do we think? How many combo's of them does he even have? (they only make 1 combo each and we block a shit ton of them with our Ah)

i'm gonna assume (again!) that check calling is probably not good because villain can probably bet all of his bluffing range unexploitably here

I think he checks behind tbh, bit too passive to be bluffing. So that makes this a x/f. Hmm... if only I could work it out in less than 2 hours.

Interesting hand, thanks for letting me stop doing this essay for the last 2 hours

youregoodmate said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/10/0.72

Villains stats over 77 hands, F3B is 1/4

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $73.13
MP: $52.19
CO: $16.95
BTN: $44.26
SB: $63.76
Hero (BB): $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K♦ A♥

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, fold, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN calls $3.00

Flop: ($9.25, 2 players) 9♠ K♥ 2♥
Hero bets $6.00, BTN calls $6.00

Turn: ($21.25, 2 players) J♠
Hero bets $13.00, BTN calls $13.00

River: ($47.25, 2 players) J♣
Hero bets $26.50 and is all-in, BTN calls $20.76 and is all-in

Disclaimer: I hold no responsibility for anyone that should be doing work but is more interested in the thread.

Click to expand...

See disclaimer above.

hmm seems really close between shove and ch/f I do think if you check it's a ch/f though. I think shove might be better though he doesn't call flop with that many Jx.

Yeah, just based on what could get there (without boring myself to death counting combos looool) and in real time it's probs close between a x/f and a ship, so I think you played it OK.

EDIT: Having now read the responses (v interesting; and I broadly agree), I wanted to add, let's not forget villain's apparent tendancies, so it's never a x/c imo.