$50 NLHE 6-max: AK in 3bet pot, river opions?

J

js520

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 28, 2012
Total posts
292
Chips
0
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/15/48

There's an argument for flatting pre but he raises 16% utg and his fold to 3bet is 40% so I think 3betting is definitely better. Other relevent stats are fold to flop and turn cbet's are both very low at 39% and 25% respectively. I haven't got any specific reads on him.

888 Poker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $50.00 (VPIP: 7.41, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 55)
UTG: $51.53 (VPIP: 25.65, PFR: 15.48, 3Bet Preflop: 5.42, Hands: 640)
MP: $13.62 (VPIP: 55.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
CO: $105.77 (VPIP: 20.87, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 117)
BTN: $53.05 (VPIP: 19.75, PFR: 18.47, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 162)
Hero (SB): $78.81

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A:spade: K:club:

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $4.50, fold, UTG calls $3.00

Flop: ($9.50, 2 players) 8:spade: 2:diamond: K:diamond:
Hero bets $5.00, UTG calls $5.00

Turn: ($19.50, 2 players) 9:spade:
Hero bets $11.00, UTG calls $11.00

River: ($41.50, 2 players) 3:diamond:
Hero?

he has $31 left on river
 
S

ScottishMatt

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2012
Total posts
2,394
Chips
0
50NL is a bit above my limit but I'm probably going B/F river for like $17. Guy doesn't like to fold so I think you can still get value, but X/C'ing is just a pain and we can't set the price.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Total posts
2,994
Chips
0
he has 31 on the river, we cant bet fold.

only diamond combos he has here are AQs imo

ship ship
 
J

js520

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 28, 2012
Total posts
292
Chips
0
yea bet/folding seems a bit ridiculous because we'd be getting like a million to one on a call if he ships. 9K I think he can have more flushes than that since he only folds to 3bets 40%
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

Bar Master
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 7, 2010
Total posts
7,139
Awards
3
Chips
21
I agree w/9k

If he's only raising 15% UTG, he doesn't have many diamond combos imo (AQs) , maybe AJs. Since he flats so wide to 3b, i'm shoving fo sho. Get all the Kx, 1010,JJ,QQ that don't like folding.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Total posts
2,994
Chips
0
over 640 hands though, how big is your 3bet sample and how much is that from UTG?
 
TylerN

TylerN

Kool-Aid & Frozen Pizza
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 2, 2009
Total posts
3,728
Chips
0
yea bet/folding seems a bit ridiculous because we'd be getting like a million to one on a call if he ships. 9K I think he can have more flushes than that since he only folds to 3bets 40%

even with his low ft3b the Kd is going to reduce a lot of the FD combos
 
S

smidjet

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 22, 2013
Total posts
285
Chips
0
the turn opens up so many more draws and me thinking maybe they are holding KQ which could even be spades im putting him in on turn and gonna be happy with pot if he quits
 
J

js520

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 28, 2012
Total posts
292
Chips
0
oh yea I didn't realise the sample size was so small on his fold to 3bets, it's only 4/10 and 1/1 from utg. That said I still don't think we can discount AJs,ATs,QJs,JTs and a few others. I mean his stats are 25/15 which kind of indicate he's a bad reg. That said it probably is still best to shove river cos there will obv be more Kx combos but does he call a shove that often with those?
 
frozensprx

frozensprx

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Total posts
271
Chips
0
with such a high fold to 3bet why would you 3bet? did you want to turn AK into a bluff and have him fold preflop? When players have a high fold to 3bet it means that when he doesn't fold to the 3bet he is continuing with a super strong range (probably QQ+/AK). I think betting the turn here is a bad way to play this cuz its a 3bet pot and I doubt the villain will call 3 streets with QQ or JJ. A better line would be bet flop then check/call turn and possibly small value bet on river. However, as you played this hand you basically have to either ship river or check/call, but you obviously can't bet/fold due to pot size and odds.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Total posts
2,994
Chips
0
if 40% is a high f3b then I dunno what to do in poker anymore

rivers a shove, he has 1 diamond combo.. maybe 2 at a stretch compared to all the other shit we beat and want value from

shoves pretty easy, dunno what else you want us to say
 
J

js520

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 28, 2012
Total posts
292
Chips
0
9k - i just want to hear your opinions, at the time of the hand i thought it was a pretty easy shove as well but on reveiw i don't think it is. Like if u think the only flushes he can have is AQs then surely the only hands he calls with that we can get value from is KQs of which there are only 2 combos and he will probably fold them to a shove a certain % of the time. Plus he could also have AA,KK,99
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I'm not sure why he can only have AQdd here; A5s and JTs are within a 16% range pretty comfortably, although he arguably folds some of those.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

PIRANHA-------->< (((º>
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 9, 2012
Total posts
4,393
Awards
1
Chips
1
i like check/ call on the river. you give him rope to hang himself and you get to re evaluate after he has made his move.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Total posts
2,994
Chips
0
baudib do you think he really calls a 3b from w/ JTs? even with our lol small sample we can assume fiddy regs are folding that and 4betting A5s > flatting it

vinyl, a lot of his range is QQ-TT and some Kx. he can have random backdoor spade floats but its more unlikely because of his position.

I give him a wider flatting range when he opens from CO+.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

PIRANHA-------->< (((º>
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 9, 2012
Total posts
4,393
Awards
1
Chips
1
OMGITSOVER9K: so you think shoving river is a must right?
 
B

bnasp2

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
Total posts
606
Chips
0
I would go check-call on river.
If we raises 31$, we are going to shove anyway.
I dont see much more value we could get from raising something small.
Witch check, we show weakness and give part of his range and option to semi-bluff, which we will call (there some extra value).
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Shove > C/f > C/C.

Its close but I feel there are more Kx hands to stack than flushes there should be 12 combos of {KQ, KJs, KTs} and around 6-8 strong diamonds {A9-AQ,QT,QJ, Q9, JT} perhaps. Sets may slowplay, 89s could be with us and kings may fold but we will also see QQ and KJo from time to time and may see some of our feared flushes checkraise the flop rather than get this far.
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Total posts
1,058
Chips
0
Didn't see 3 diamonds on board but still it's a Shove on the river, but close.

If we check-call we lose value from KQ,KJ and call it off against better hands only, check-calling is bad. Either shove or fold depending on what you put him on.

Also most flush draws are not calling the turn it he is any good.
 
forsakenone

forsakenone

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 24, 2009
Total posts
1,385
Chips
0
why check call? if we are going to call here might as well shove.'

Everyone seems to be talking about a flush here but there are much more hands that beat us and might have played this way, like AA (why not), 89s, 88, 99, 22.

I don't think he is calling a double barrel with TT to QQ and if he does he is not shoving them on the river because he has a decent showdown value and you could be double barreling a lot.
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Total posts
1,527
Chips
0
He has less than 1/2 pot otr. He has to call any bet.

Ergo, ship it.
 
Top