$50 NLHE 6-max: Aggression from IP with no hand just playing the opponents and the board?

$50 NLHE 6-max: Aggression from IP with no hand just playing the opponents and the board?

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 129.62 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 9)
SB: 143.56 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 28.7 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 91 BB
Hero (MP): 112.86 BB
CO: 77.88 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:club: A:club:

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 6 BB, UTG calls 5 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 3 players) 8:club: K:spade: 3:heart:
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 7.5 BB, fold, UTG calls 7.5 BB

Betted small to put BB under pressure if he calls then he is somewhat committed with his stack.

Turn: (36.5 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero bets 17 BB, fold

UTG did not re-raise preflop and also not on the flop with a K on board. Making me belief that hes less likely that he has a AK or AA hand. So my range looks stronger then his range as I 3 betted and showed aggression on the flop. So I bet the turn to get a fold from TT-JJ-QQ - AJ - AQ type of hands.
Betted just enough to let it look like I might move all in at the river.

What do you think of this play?

I'm interested to hear the comments. Note: villain has under 100bb, and UTG sizing tell so, we are dealing with massive fish here. He won't be folding easily and his range is quite interesting on the turn, and I don't really see the hands mentioned being in his range too much because all those hands would be brave enough to open bigger.

I'm just 3betting 4x & x folding flop
fish don't reconginse ranges or hand strenghts. You would just get called down by pocket 3s. if the BB shoves you'd have to call anyway

I get your reasoning on the flop, i think we should size up a bit though. I think BB is going to call/fold with the same hands to a ~15BB bet as he would to a 7BB bet, while UTG can fold more often to 15 than to 7. Using a bigger bet could knock out 2 birds with one stone.

Also, it increases value if we can successfully bluff the turn/river.

What are the stats on the UTG player?

Sidetracked said:

What are the stats on the UTG player?

Click to expand...

No stats on him and as I play the 6MAX Fast lvl not that long I assume he is a regular. So lets say VIP 18% / PFR 16% form UTG and 30% 3 Bet calling as that is about the average from what I can tell. And as there is a cold call in between on the BB UTG is priced in more. So my guesstimate % hands would be ~ 8% of the hands.

TenJack said:

I get your reasoning on the flop, i think we should size up a bit though. I think BB is going to call/fold with the same hands to a ~15BB bet as he would to a 7BB bet, while UTG can fold more often to 15 than to 7. Using a bigger bet could knock out 2 birds with one stone.

Also, it increases value if we can successfully bluff the turn/river.

Click to expand...

The reason I sized so small is both can have a real hand it is against two players so don't want to risk to much. It is hard to say if sizing bigger is better on the flop I risk more and if both fold the same % regardless of the size risking less is the better option.

My estimate is that I will not always make a second barrel (high cards have a good chance of hitting him so high cards would stop me form second barreling) so I believe that I win after the UTG calls, chance that I barrel * chance that UTG folds on the barrel, is smaller then 50%. This would make raising bigger on the flop not good. But still it are estimates.
Another reason to size small is that very good hands might raise my smallish size to try to get the money in.

Yeah I can see what you are saying. Multi-way villain could have a lot stronger hands and not choose to continue.

I think your analysis of turns is a bit off. (imo) Lets go through turn card by card...

Ad, Ah, As: We will have top pair, but weak kicker.
Kd, Kh: Another king decreases the likelyhood of him having one, very good bluff card if we think he has Ax hands.
Kc: Same as above but we also have the NFD
Qh,Qd, Qs: we pick up the str8 draw.
Qc, we have str8, NFD.
any Jack and we pick up 2nd pair top kicker.
Th, Ts, Td we pick up str8 draw, we can also comfortabley bluff any blank or king on the river
Tc we have the combo draw and can bluff lots of rivers.

So really the worst card for us is a queen or maybe an ace depending on what you think he has. Obviusly if he c-raises us we have to fold, and we loose 8 more BB so you are right there.

7 versus 15 is rather nitpicky of me as well, i think either one is an okay option.