$50 NLHE 6-max: 50nl trips in 3bet pot river spot..

OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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haven't posted one here in a while.. anyway have at it.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $78.05 (VPIP: 45.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, hands: 40)
UTG: $50.00 (VPIP: 21.90, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 106)
MP: $58.50 (VPIP: 23.46, PFR: 12.35, 3Bet Preflop: 13.16, Hands: 85)
Hero (CO): $50.75
BTN: $50.00 (VPIP: 27.06, PFR: 24.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 220)
SB: $41.10 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 39)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J:heart: A:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, BB raises to $4.00, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($8.25, 2 players) T:diamond: J:diamond: J:club:
BB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $5.50, BB calls $4.50

Turn: ($19.25, 2 players) 5:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets $11.50, BB calls $11.50

River: ($42.25, 2 players) K:club:
BB bets $4.00, Hero?
 
JCgrind

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sigh and flat, and if he rolls KJ, AQ, JT lol at him in the chat box for saving you your stack
 
igySK

igySK

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yeah I'd just call on the river, AQ,JT,KJ is definitely in his range and he could play that way.
 
Deco

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Shove!!

{AA,QJ,KQ,AK,KT} = 37 combos
{KJ,JT,AQ,TT} = 21 combos

All the potential negations come down against the range that beats us as well as the range we beat is far more likely to 3bet (AA,KQ,AK) and the range we lose to is far less likely to min bet/call -> check/call down. I've also gone and assumed villain never calls with Tx or QQ which with his potentially fishy stats is far from impossible.
 
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Deco

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Another thing worth mentioning is that generally regfish and fish are way more likely to donk the river tiny as a blocker bet rather than to induce with a monster. Especially with these stack sizes when a raise isn't needed to get stacks in.

If you shove and your beat it's just a cooler.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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figured it was a shove.

also KK is there too, its just a matter of if he plays his monsters vs his SDV hands this way right
 
Deco

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Oh ye thought I forgot one.

Even if it weren't for the 101 reasons to negate his monsters range the range we stack still out combos his monsters.
We even have room to add Q9 to his range although ignoring negations at this point would be painful and we'd need to add J9 and some Kxs to our moneymaking ranges.

I don't think this is close.
 
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Yoshimiii

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Ye, this is a shove vs this blocking bet.
 
JCgrind

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that doesnt make sense tho... blocking bets dont call shoves. hes inducing with the nuts or snap folding...... hes a fish. imo the question is more whether he thinks hes inducing with like QJ/J9 etc often enough
 
Deco

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Fish bet/call tiny more than they bet/fold imo.
I think the logic goes, "I'm scared of a big bet lets bet small"..."Oh no he raised me because I bet small, now I must call".
 
Yoshimiii

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that doesnt make sense tho... blocking bets dont call shoves. hes inducing with the nuts or snap folding...... hes a fish. imo the question is more whether he thinks hes inducing with like QJ/J9 etc often enough

Some of them make blocking bets then talk themselves into calling. I have seen it many times.
 
hackmeplz

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Kinda close but I still shove all day.
 
John A

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Raise more on the flop, bet slightly more on the turn, easy river shove. Looks like a fishly played AK/AQ/KQ/TT. It's a bulk of his range and if you add in some poorly played big pairs, it's value town on the river.
 
hackmeplz

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Raise more on the flop

Definitely this. Didn't think about sizing too much at first glance but your raise is really small against a range you want to put a ton of money in against. No reason not to make it like $8-10 here.
 
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