$50 NLHE 6-max: 50nl, to bomb river or not?

OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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31/18 over 64 hands. anyone like bombing/overbetting river here?

poker stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2089371
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $105.07
Hero (SB): $141.59
BB: $51.03
UTG: $73.18
MP: $65.41
CO: $66.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with J :spade: K :spade:
3 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) 7 :heart: 6 :spade: 2 :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2, Hero raises to $5.50, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($14.50) T :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8

River: ($30.50) 4 :club: (2 players)
Hero ?
 
Yoshimiii

Yoshimiii

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Seems like he has an overpair here, if you shove then you risk $90 to win $30, so you need to be correct 3:1 here I think. I think it's fine if you are confident enough that he doesn't have the straight ( but it is possible that he can have 8/9) or that he can actually lay an overpair down. Your basically repping 8/9 here, I think a smaller overbet would be enough to get him off of an overpair if he has I would think though.
 
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C

Cheecho

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Agree that you are reaping either 8/9 or your own over pair here. Just don't know how believable either really is. If you have you own over pair, it probably isn't tens or better, right? Otherwise, why flat from SB? Maybe Ts is the wrong break, but it isn't a super premium pair to my read. So, if he has even a semi-decent pair, will probably call.

Could be 8/9, but what are the chances of that really? You called from SB and 8/9 has gotta be near the bottom of that range, no? I suppose your range from the SB might be infinity if you are trying to protect against what you read as a steal from the button, but there are only six combos of 8/9 in the deck so ...

Further, you also rep the flush draw (which you actually have) and that failed. If I am him, and you jam the river, I would see that I am getting roughly 4:3 odds. So, if it's even 50/50 that you do not have 8/9, probably worth a call. Given that the flush draw line of semi-bluff raise to c-bet bluff on the turn is definitely a substantial part of the range as played, it's gotta be at least 50/50 that you do not have 8/9

disclaimer: Only been playing this game for 9 months, so I probably have more to gain from responses to this post than you have from my ideas themselves.
 
imboosted

imboosted

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To me it seems he is playing this to check call the river. I think you played it like a flush draw and "by the book"....which is not bad at all. I would almost snap call a river bomb and be more inclined to fold to a heavy v bet...just me though. Also, though when you raise my flop bet i dont call there. I 4bet maybe jam, so he may not be as strong, or just does not want to play a large pot
 
hackmeplz

hackmeplz

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Turn needs to be bigger, then river I think it's kinda w/e. It's fine to bluff here some people it'll be good against some it'll suck against. I think most 50nl regs are inclined to be on the level of "everything missed so he won't bluff here" and fold overpairs but there will definitely be some who are like "lol draw missed I cawl".

Also flop is definitely not bad or anything but think about ch/c a lot more here. If you're raising all your FDs on this flop you're going to be super weighted towards FDs when you raise this flop.
 
B

baudib1

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Give up, only thing he might fold is an Ace-high flush draw, bad runout to rep something that beats a pair on the flop.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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I give up OTR, dont think we fold out that many overpairs which is almost all of his range.
 
ChuckTs

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Not with that turn sizing. Since when does 2pair/set ever bet turn that amount?

Pretty great opportunity for a c/r/bet/bet line but the turn sizing is way too small. I bet turn large with the expectiation of getting called most of the time (88/99/8x/9x/T9/FDs/7x/overpairs etc), then betting tons of rivers like 3/4 pot with the expectation of getting tons of folds. We also get a bigger bet in when we hit. He's just never folding Tx/overpairs on this river to anything smaller than an overbet, and even those tend to get curiousity-called kind of often. Sizing just doesn't make sense.
 
acky100

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pussy bets once again haydn :) when you're polarizing tend to make it bigger, not for the sake of it, it makes sense theory wise to bet bigger for a few reasons, you want to put pressure on him when you're polarising, put his bluff catchers in tough spots, you want to maximize value when you hit, and the most important from a theory perspective the bigger you bet the MORE you can bluff!


personally just x/c flop and not bluffing like this at 50nl or 100nl without a read on the guy not liking to call down with one pair hands or something when facing similar spots.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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^ i'm working on it!
 
frozensprx

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yeah unless you have an insane read on this player, i'd say based on fishy stats that trying to bluff players like that at those stakes isn't the best idea, especially when you are OOP and have to act first on the river.
 
Deco

Deco

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I make the flop raise and the turn bet much bigger. When I play flush draws or nutted hands in deep pots I want to be setting stacks up so make those bets huge.

I'd flat the flop against a thinking player but this guys looking a little fishy. As played I aint betting the river againts a fairly fishy opponent who is most likely holding a straight/set or overpair and is very unlikely to fold his overpairs.
 
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