$50 NLHE 6-max: $40 NLHE: A-10 vs. QQ on 10-10-Q Flop

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tcc89

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Hey guys sorry if this post isn't in the right format, I'm new to the forums. I was SB and went heads up against BB.

I had A-10, and the BB's call off the flop was hesitant. I figured he had a Q.

I raised to $1.50, BB called.

Flop came out 10-10-Q, and I bet $3, BB called.

Turn card was 9, I went all in, and he called.

River was 8.

Should I have played that differently? If anyone knows quickly, what exactly is the probably that he had pocket Qs with a Q on the board?
 
bgomez89

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what site do you play on? Maybe we can figure out how you can grab the HH of there so it'll be easier to read
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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oh ok cool. Do you know what the stack sizes were?
 
bgomez89

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Why did you shove the turn when the pot is Only 9 dollars?
 
JamesDaBear

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Even if he doesn't have QQ, shoving that turn costs yourself a lot of value and kills you when you're beat. A check there would have looked like your flop bet was weak and got a lot of action from draws on a semi-bluff. If you then go for a check raise and get a lot of action back at you, you can consider folding, though I probably wouldn't. Your opponent played his hand really deceptively and really well actually. You didn't say whether it's someone you respect as a player, but I'd pay attention to how he plays if you get the chance to play him or even watch him play in the future.
 
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RVladimiro

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I had A-10, and the BB's call off the flop was hesitant. I figured he had a Q.

You lost me here. Why exactly did you think he had a Q? There are a number of reasons why he could be hesitant, some good for you, some bad for you. Not sure I understand why he should have a Q because he was hesitant.

If anyone knows quickly, what exactly is the probably that he had pocket Qs with a Q on the board?

Cards are dealt before the flop, so the probabily of getting QQ is (like any other pair) 0.45% if memory serves me right. The probabily that he hit a boat in the flop with a pair in his hand is 0.73% if google is right. :)
 
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johnnytt

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Turn bet is wayyyyyyyyyyy to big.
 
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tcc89

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If preflop then the probability of a pocket pair is .45% right? But isn't the probability lower that he has QQ, if there is a Q on the board?

He's one of the better players at table, but there would have been little reason for him to call the raises if he had absolutely nothing. Probability that he had a 10 was low so I figured he had a Q and was playing the 2 pair, even if he had trip 10s as well, I would have had the A kicker. I figured I had the nuts besides Q full 10s and I just played the probabilities.

He usually plays bluffs by raising, or just folding early.
 
JamesDaBear

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If preflop then the probability of a pocket pair is .45% right? But isn't the probability lower that he has QQ, if there is a Q on the board?

He's one of the better players at table, but there would have been little reason for him to call the raises if he had absolutely nothing. Probability that he had a 10 was low so I figured he had a Q and was playing the 2 pair, even if he had trip 10s as well, I would have had the A kicker. I figured I had the nuts besides Q full 10s and I just played the probabilities.

He usually plays bluffs by raising, or just folding early.

Still doesn't explain the size of the turn bet. It's a cooler for certain, but you're still either chasing away good value or value-towning yourself.
 
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Gunner57

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I think it would be very difficult to put him exactly on QQ without knowing what his pre-flop action is and what his history is. This guy is an unknown to everyone here so it is difficult to deduce what he could have pre flop which makes putting him on a range on the following streets more difficult.

With that being said what you should take from this hand is the need of controlling the size of the pot with your betting. If bet sizing done correctly it give you +EV and information on your villan both for this hand and future hands.

Before you bet think about why you are betting. With a hand like trip Tens you should bet for value if you think he has a Q. A large bet on the turn only pushes out hands that you beat and have weak draws while loosing you lots of money to hands like QQ, 99, J8, KJ, or QT. So you have everything to loose with nothing to gain which is why it is an -EV move.

Standard bets sizes would be 1/2-1x the pot on flop, turn and river. Maybe on the river 1.5x-2x the pot depending on previous hands on river. Each time you bet you should deduce something about his hand from his action. Let that new information help shape what action you are going to take next.

It is safe to say that the chances of him having QQ is very limited by the Q coming on the flop but it is still in his range by calling your flop bet (again not sure what chances are due to no info on preflop action or previous hands). On the turn you should have considered he had a hand, likely you had him beat but there was a chance he had you of had some outs. I would say agian though you bet for value to give incorrect odds to call with a Q or str8 draw.

Then on the river it gives you a chance to again evaluate what to do... If he just called you on the previous streets river card did not help much of anything. If you are now not sure if you are best check to hope to see cheap showdown or if you think you are ahead so you put another bet to get more value from him.

Trip tens are good but with the texture of the flop it is not the nuts. I will be the first to say that I am a river nit and in early position on the river I would rather check or check/call with a mid strength hand to see a showdown and loose a little bit of value than bet/fold when villan comes over the top of me after betting 3 streets.

So if he is bluffing when he raises and folds when he has weak hands then he must have something strong when he flat calls. This might be worth considering when thinking about betting the turn or river.
 
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