[50 NL FR] AKs in BB, flops draw

Tygran

Tygran

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Villain is running about 15/10/1.8 or so over ~100 hands. Is frequently stealing his COs and BTNs and this is a pretty obvious spot for one.

I think my image at the table is a bit on the aggressive side (I was running about 23/20 or so at the time.. ~75 hands or so) on this table which factored into my decision making a little bit as I kinda had a suspicion he might be playing sheriff on this one, but I can't be sure.

What range is the villain on and what do we do with the turn? Is the bet sizing on the flop ok? His flat call both pre and post flop sort of threw me a little even though this spot is somewhat normal I just wanted some feedback to see if my thinking is ok.


$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, February 08, 11:02:51 ET 2009
Table Ragazza III (real money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Villain ( $63.65 USD )
Seat 2: MoeCashMaker ( $55.70 USD )
Seat 3: JazzmanAHL ( $34.65 USD )
Seat 4: Hero ( $82.05 USD )
Seat 5: Tdub2368 ( $87.05 USD )
Seat 6: SARA PEZ ( $51.00 USD )
Seat 7: Squirrel54 ( $52.10 USD )
Seat 8: DuMacuk ( $50.50 USD )
Seat 9: ricecooka972 ( $50.50 USD )
JazzmanAHL posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kh Ah ]
Tdub2368 folds
SARA PEZ folds
Squirrel54 folds
DuMacuk folds
ricecooka972 folds
Villain raises [$1.75 USD]
MoeCashMaker folds
JazzmanAHL folds
Hero raises [$5.50 USD]
sevens113 calls [$4.25 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, Th, 3d ]
Hero bets [$7.50 USD]
Villain calls [$7.50 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
Hero ???
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Tough spot because nothing has changed from the flop and whatever he thinks is good on the flop he probably still thinks is good now. I guess I would probably barrel here and rep an overpair, but I'd prefer a CRAI on that flop actually. If we bet the turn and he jams over us we have to call and hope we still have lots of outs, so I'm betting pretty big on the turn because if I bet I'm committed and I want max FE.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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#1 - Tygran please be sure to always use the HH converter here or at Stox.

#2 - I don't mind the double barrel here but I'm fully expecting the villain to call whatever we bet. That will set us up VERY nicely if you finally hit the river A, K , or heart.
 
BelgoSuisse

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a lot of further reads would be nice. fold to 3bet%? fold to cbet%? wtsd? i know, 100 hands is not much. but it would be nice to know if we can hope to have some fold equity against part of his 3bet calling range. Anyway, let's assume we do.

If you've seen him float, i really like a CRAI on turn as you're deep enough for the move. Otherwise, double barreling is very good unless we're afraid he raises us. Of course, 1.8 aggression is pretty average so neither line is a clear favorite for me.
 
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WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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a lot of further reads would be nice. fold to 3bet%? fold to cbet%? wtsd? i know, 100 hands is not much.

If you've seen him float, i really like a CRAI on turn as you're deep enough for the move. Otherwise, double barreling is very good unless we're afraid he raises us.

Do you think we're deep enough for a CRAI on the turn? If we check and villain bets $20 into $25, our raise is only another $30.
 
Chris_TC

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The odds of him pure floating you are probably ~1%. This turn is a pretty obvious c/f to me. If you do somehow decide to bet it, you'll have to ship any river.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Do you think we're deep enough for a CRAI on the turn? If we check and villain bets $20 into $25, our raise is only another $30.

yeah, depends on villain's bet size. If he bets $15 it's really much nicer... :D
 
Tygran

Tygran

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a lot of further reads would be nice. fold to 3bet%? fold to cbet%? wtsd? i know, 100 hands is not much. but it would be nice to know if we can hope to have some fold equity against part of his 3bet calling range. Anyway, let's assume we do.

If you've seen him float, i really like a CRAI on turn as you're deep enough for the move. Otherwise, double barreling is very good unless we're afraid he raises us. Of course, 1.8 aggression is pretty average so neither line is a clear favorite for me.


Not enough hands to have much in the way of meaningful stats. He had folded to 2 3bets (one from me, one from someone else) prior to this at the table. So I have not seen him even be in a position to float someone at this table yet (in a 3b pot anyway). My impressions of him at the time were that he was pretty fit or fold.

My general feel after the flop action at the time was that he legitimately had something. And given that he called a 3bet with it I would have to think that something is most likely JJ or QQ for an overpair or TT for a set (maybe)... I wasn't sure he'd be calling with much else preflop but of course I could be wrong. I can't imagine him being on a draw since I had the A and K, I didn't really think he's floating overcards or an underpair to the T and I was also thinking a single random ten would have been odd, (didn't seem like the type to flat AT, TJ, etc pre).
 
Tygran

Tygran

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Tough spot because nothing has changed from the flop and whatever he thinks is good on the flop he probably still thinks is good now. I guess I would probably barrel here and rep an overpair, but I'd prefer a CRAI on that flop actually. If we bet the turn and he jams over us we have to call and hope we still have lots of outs, so I'm betting pretty big on the turn because if I bet I'm committed and I want max FE.

Agreed with all parts... Looking back I think I do like a CRAI line better than what I took. He does seem capable of laying down a good but not great hand...I kinda thought I'd get a raise out of him with JJ or QQ and I was planing to shove over top. I think I would have had some FE in that spot (depending on raise amount) against this player (maybe not but that was my thought at the time)...but I do like the CRAI line better thinking about it now.

#1 - Tygran please be sure to always use the HH converter here or at Stox.

#2 - I don't mind the double barrel here but I'm fully expecting the villain to call whatever we bet. That will set us up VERY nicely if you finally hit the river A, K , or heart.


#1 - my bad, just forgot..

#2 - Yeah exactly and that's the problem...I can't think of anything short of an intended bluff float (which I agree with Chris is extremely unlikely here) that doesn't call the second barrell.
 
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