$50 NL FR, aggression vs nice draws

I think I min-raised pre-flop twice this game. I'm not making a habit of it. I was active in a couple other tables and took the easy route. That also explains why I haven't rebought to $50 yet. Believe me, it was pending.

Stats are my totals on them after the session.

Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/06/02 - 23:40:40 (ET)
Table 'Dike' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: ironsteve ($57 in chips) 57/14/1
Seat 2: NiteProwler ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 3: H_Brasil ($50 in chips)
Seat 4: SvgePenguin ($46 in chips)
Seat 5: Urdawg ($48.95 in chips) 27/3/2.7
Seat 6: rexlard ($79.90 in chips)
Seat 7: Keep Honking ($53.60 in chips)
Seat 8: teachergreg1 ($51.45 in chips)
Seat 9: mattk20 ($59.10 in chips)
teachergreg1: posts small blind $0.25
mattk20: posts big blind $0.50
H_Brasil: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SvgePenguin [9d 8d]
ironsteve: calls $0.50
NiteProwler: folds
H_Brasil: checks
SvgePenguin: raises $0.50 to $1
Urdawg: calls $1
rexlard: calls $1
Keep Honking: folds
teachergreg1: folds
mattk20: folds
ironsteve: calls $0.50
H_Brasil: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [6s 7d 4d]
ironsteve: checks
H_Brasil: checks
SvgePenguin: bets $3.60
Urdawg: raises $3.60 to $7.20
rexlard: folds
ironsteve: raises $7.80 to $15
H_Brasil: folds
SvgePenguin: ?

Beuller?
Beuller?
Beuller?

Open ended straight draw and flush draw means that you are favourite against a made hand. So folding is out.

Either raise/push now, or call and push the turn depending on how likely you think that they'll both stay in the pot if you push (you might as well maximise returns if you hit, as you are going to win nowt if you miss).

and you'll have to explain the min raise to me again, sorry!?

robwhufc said:

Open ended straight draw and flush draw means that you are favourite against a made hand.

Click to expand...

No you're not. Against a set you are only 40% to win this hand. You're 36% dog against a higher flush draw. You're about 50% against two pairs and only clearly beat (60%) single pair hands.

Nightmare scenario: you're against AdTd and 6d6h. Then you're less than 17% to win the hand against both villains.

I don't mean to say that a oesd/flush combo draw is not a nice hand, but it's not the monster people often think it is.

BelgoSuisse said:

No you're not. Against a set you are only 40% to win this hand. You're 36% dog against a higher flush draw. You're about 50% against two pairs and only clearly beat (60%) single pair hands.

Click to expand...

Yep, but 3 handed 40% and 36% are still enough - higher flush draw is a cooler, and if you are up against 2 sets then they are holding a number of each other's outs.

Another flush draw would suck, but worst case scenario is still 17%. i'd gamble my $46 her on a possible triple up.

robwhufc said:

Yep, but 3 handed 40% and 36% are still enough - higher flush draw is a cooler, and if you are up against 2 sets then they are holding a number of each other's outs.

Another flush draw would suck, but worst case scenario is still 17%. i'd gamble my $46 her on a possible triple up.

Click to expand...

pokerstars Game #17878846031
*** FLOP *** [6s 7d 4d]
SvgePenguin: bets $3.60
Urdawg: raises $3.60 to $7.20
ironsteve: raises $7.80 to $15
SvgePenguin: raises $30 to $45 and is all-in
Urdawg: folds
ironsteve: calls $30
*** TURN *** [6s 7d 4d] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [6s 7d 4d Jd] [2c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ironsteve: shows [4s 4h] (three of a kind, Fours)
SvgePenguin: shows [9d 8d] (a flush, Jack high)
SvgePenguin collected $99.95 from pot

I just moved up from $25NL and have been in a few $100+ pots, being a favorite in most, but was never able to win one. This was sooooo close to being my first $100 pot.

I have myself to blame though. Not adding on quick enough cost me $4.

Oh, and afterwards the guy said something about how he should have been smart enough to fold his set. I guess he didn't know that he was a favorite.

even if his entire range is sets, straights, and two pair (which is prob not far from the truth at all.. the check-practically min 3bet is ridiculously strong), shoving is still slightly +EV for you. only hand you're really worried about is a larger diamond draw, but they never play a bigger flush draw this way, so you're fine

so with that method being +EV, the only question remaining is if just calling can be more +EV. sort of depends on how much of a retard he is or isn't. you're getting nice direct odds now, but will you get paid? a 5 will scare the crap out of him, so your implied odds are weak for those 4 outs. a diamond will worry him, but maybe not enough for him to get away from his set/whatever unless perhaps it's the 3d. how he'll react to the flush draw getting there in particular is pretty player dependent. a non-diamond T is great for you, but that's only 3 outs. also, you don't know if he'll give you a price to even see the river. and there is the very minor, miniscule chance that he's screwing around and will fold to a push, or has a real hand and will hero-fold

you're basically stuck in a gambol-ish spot that doesn't have a ton of EV in it, but more than 0EV (folding) and i think shoving is generally better than calling here

combuboom said:

you're basically stuck in a gambol-ish spot that doesn't have a ton of EV in it, but more than 0EV (folding) and i think shoving is generally better than calling here

Click to expand...

The one caveat to this is that by calling you could make this a 3-way pot instead of staying heads up. And if your outs remain clean outs with the extra player, than this could be more +EV

robwhufc said:

and you'll have to explain the min raise to me again, sorry!?

Click to expand...

I was four tabling. At this table I had just come off a loss, and was active in two in multi-player hands on two other tables, so those two hands had my attention. In a mix of frustration and laziness I clicked the raise button instead of typing in $1.50 for the bet.

Dealt to SvgePenguin [9d 8d]
ironsteve: calls $0.50
H_Brasil: checks
SvgePenguin: raises $0.50 to $1

Click to expand...

It's not a terrible move. I was just sweetening the pot, but an observant player would have known I was on a draw.

Usually if I'm in a pot I make a standard raise, or I call a standard raise. And in this case with two limpers in the pot ahead of me, I'd have normally made it $2.50 instead of my usual $1.50. I don't limp with low pairs/suited-connectors and bet the big pairs and Broadway hands. I see people do that all the time. Heck, I see CC'ers do that all the time. It telegraphs their hands and means that if they do hit, their implied odds against an observant player aren't very good.

I had 5 people in the pot on the flop. Bleh!

you're right belgo, i didn't realize urdawg was still live in the hand. that does change/complicate things. vs. the right players, preferably ones who won't get away when your draws hit, and/or will give you a good price to see the river even if you miss, calling could be the more profitable option

I'm normally a big proponent of jamming with the OESD/FD combo to maximize fold equity against made hands and to force out higher flush draws. Given the heavy action, I'd say getting two folds is almost impossible, so the main incentive is forcing out higher flush draws. On a less coordinated flop, I like jamming better, because it is less likely you are up against a higher flush draw that will call your shove. In this spot, 6x, 5x, and 3x of diamonds are all likely to call your shove. And it's possible that the bare nut flush draw will call, especially if he's expecting 3-way action. On top of that, there's something to be said for encouraging 3-way action by just calling, so you can pot commit two players for when you hit your hand.

I do love shoving these kinds of draws in general, but this is probably one of the worst spots for it.