[50 NL 6max] Yet another WA/WB spot

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
Classic WA/WB. Villain is 31/17/5 over 36 hands. Do we call the river bet?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $69 (138 bb)
CO: $24.35 (48.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $91.15 (182.3 bb)
SB: $43 (86 bb)
BB: $55.85 (111.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K
spade.gif
K
diamond.gif

MP folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.75) 6
diamond.gif
A
club.gif
2
spade.gif
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($10.75) 8
heart.gif
(2 players)
CO bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: ($16.75) 3
club.gif
(2 players)
CO bets $16.35 and is all-in, Hero ???
 
Blazing_Saddler

Blazing_Saddler

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2007
Total posts
214
Chips
0
I am folding this one. He checked the flop, shorter stacks will check a flop with an ace, with the intention of check raising you probably all in. His play also could be that of someone with a set.

The odds you are getting aren't that great to call it.
 
S

sw7104

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 1, 2008
Total posts
37
Chips
0
I think you are correct PF & Flop, but bet too little on the turn. You need to bet enough to define villain's hand. Calling your $3 told you nothing. If you really thought you were beat, then check & prepare to surrender if he doesn't give you the right odds on his turn bet. If you were unsure, then bet enough to verify that villain has something.

What I would do on the river? At that point, you still don't know what villain has, but you have poor odds and no more chances to find out, save calling.

Have you seen enough to know what villain is capable of in this spot? How were you represented at the table? If answering those questions doesn't clarify what you need to do next, then I fold.
 
S

sw7104

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 1, 2008
Total posts
37
Chips
0
I'm not happy w/ my answer above, so let me clarify -- What did you put villain on after he called your PF bet? What did villain out you on?

You're beat by a many cards -- AA; AK; Ax; 88; 66; 33; 22; any two pair....

But ... you also beat Kx; QQ; JJ; 10; 99.

So, the real question is, given everything that has led up to this hand, what are the probabilities that villain holds any of the above? You only need 33% to break even on the river... to really determine your river call (or fold), you need to assign percentages to possible holdings then compare it to your 33%.

Without knowing the history, I assume villain (and you) is solid and would only call a large reraise of a standard raise holding QQ and better. Possibly JJ/AQ/AJ. That puts the odds somewhat against you, and worse if you throw in JJ/AQ/AJ.
 
joos

joos

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 7, 2008
Total posts
272
Chips
0
I think you are correct PF & Flop, but bet too little on the turn. You need to bet enough to define villain's hand. Calling your $3 told you nothing. If you really thought you were beat, then check & prepare to surrender if he doesn't give you the right odds on his turn bet. If you were unsure, then bet enough to verify that villain has something.

What I would do on the river? At that point, you still don't know what villain has, but you have poor odds and no more chances to find out, save calling.

Have you seen enough to know what villain is capable of in this spot? How were you represented at the table? If answering those questions doesn't clarify what you need to do next, then I fold.

Hero is not the one making the bet on the turn.

I have seen opponents go crazy and go to felt with middle pair but might just have to fold here since the odds are terrible
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
BTW, I called river and villain had A8. I'm not sure it's a huge mistake as we'll sometimes see middle pair here, but i'd say it was a mistake indeed.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Belgo, do you ever check back, say, AQ/AK on this flop for balance? You're getting to the point where you're running into enough regs that balancing your game has merit, yes?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
Belgo, do you ever check back, say, AQ/AK on this flop for balance? You're getting to the point where you're running into enough regs that balancing your game has merit, yes?

I'm not sure i really need to worry about regs that much yet. But yes, I'll check back AQ/AK on this flop at least 1/3 of the time.
 
JimmyBrizzy

JimmyBrizzy

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 14, 2007
Total posts
916
Awards
1
Chips
1
I have been noticing this similar kind of donk bet on the river lately, through other's posting and what I have been experiencing (although I play 5NL).

They are usually fishier than the type of villian you face in this hand, but they seem to call my raises preflop with substandard hands, a lot of the time OOP, maybe float a c-bet here or there, then push all in sometimes way more than what's in the pot. I would have to go back and start tracing my hands, but it seems like a good amount of the time they do have a decent hand. I guess it comes down to knowing your opponent. I usually fold in these spots unless something jsut doesn't make sense, because I find it more profitable when I put them all in, than the other way around. Usually if they are the type of player that has pulled this move against me, for one reason or another, they seem more likely to call me when I pull it against them with a better hand.

Just my 2 cents.
 
V

viking999

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 4, 2005
Total posts
512
Chips
0
I guess the whole play hinges on whether you play AK or AQ like this. If you do, then you might have to fold. If you don't, then you might have to call. I can definitely see checking behind AK/AQ on the flop, as you have admitted you do. The real question is whether you would just call the tiny bet on the turn with those hands. I would normally interpret a call on the turn as scared kings or queens, not as an ace. That would increase my chances of bluffing the river, making a call more appropriate from your perspective.

Given your weak call on the turn and the aggressiveness of the villain, I'd say a call is roughly as good as a fold. If he can turn over A8 here, then he could probably have KQ, QQ, JJ, TT, etc. In this case, his tiny turn bet was a low value bet with a weak ace, however it could have been a probing bet by one of the hands you beat.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
I guess the whole play hinges on whether you play AK or AQ like this. If you do, then you might have to fold. If you don't, then you might have to call.
A 31/17 is not taking into account how you balance your range. I fold river like always. If this was a reg who I had 2000 hands on, and who knew what a WA/WB spot was, then I might be convinced to call, or bet the flop to shake things up.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
A 31/17 is not taking into account how you balance your range. I fold river like always. If this was a reg who I had 2000 hands on, and who knew what a WA/WB spot was, then I might be convinced to call, or bet the flop to shake things up.

Yeah. But a reg wouldn't flat a 3bet oop with A8o anyway, so the hand would have been over preflop.

On the other hand a bad aggro fish could very well play JJ like that convinced that he's ahead.

I guess a 31/17 is just neither good enough nor bad enough to push here without at least TP.
 
Top