$.50/1 FLHE Full Ring: Fit or fold (where fit=2p+) profitable?

Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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$.50/1 FL HE Full Ring: Fit or fold (where fit=2p+) profitable?

full tilt poker $0.50/$1.00 Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 246851
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2 posts a big blind (1 SB)

UTG+1 posts a big blind (1 SB)

Pre Flop: (3.5 SB) Hero is CO with 9
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T
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1 fold, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB checks

Flop: (6 SB) 9
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6
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8
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(6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, Hero
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I called pf obv due to the two posters and the limper, however, this was not really a flop I was hoping for.

Is this an ok board to give up on and pretend I completely missed? I've got so many to act behind me who can checkraise and I'm unlikely to improve my hand (7 is pretty much the only card I'll like unless we're heads up, where I wouldn't mind a 9). I know it's limit, but get over it
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If I stay in I obviously have to raise, but my main question is can I play this fit or fold (where fit=2p+ or a draw) profitably in this spot?
 
S93

S93

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I kinda like betting here to earn they check on the turn and get to the river for free.
If we check back the flop we can be 99% sure some one is betting the turn so why not try to thin the field when the betting is small and we can get cheaper to showdown.
If raised we prolly have to peel one street and give up if villain fires turn(and the turn isnt a 7,9,T).

As for playing fit and fold in these spot i think u have to make moves when u flop TP+gutter other wise your just better off folding prf imo.

Oh and just so u know i only have like 100hands of limit this month and i completly suck so just do the exact oposite to what i suggested and u should be fine :p....
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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I'm actually facing a bet. Do you mean raising to hopefully squeeze the other players?
 
S93

S93

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oops sorry thought it was checked around :S.
That changes alot imo. I think i just fold here then since leading into 6players just look to strong and i just give him credit.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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oops sorry thought it was checked around :S.
That changes alot imo. I think i just fold here then since leading into 6players just look to strong and i just give him credit.

k.

Anyone else? FP perhaps? lol
 
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(I'm a little removed from FL so some of this analysis may be slightly off)

Summary: If you can not raise this, you should not be overlimping this (there isn't enough info to tell if the overlimp was correct). Thus, assuming the overlimp was correct, raise and call one more.

Explanation: We flop trips+ 2.8% of the time and a good chunk of the time, we should be good. Note that two pair (which we flop another 2%) is extremely dangerous with T9 as there are 48 OESD possibilities (32 realistically: QJ, 87). Even if you account for the times we flop an OESD (9.7%), we still can not just fit or fold as the math does not work out.

So looking at where we are now, the hands that crush us are TT+, any set, TP J+ kicker and the unlikely flopped straight. Unless the blinds are nits, TT+ should not be in anyones range, and the blinds are the only ones who reasonably flop a straight here and the odds of them doing so is extremely small. Thus, the only hands we should really expect to see continue here are, TP J+ kicker, sets, two pair, OESD (with potentially a pair), and flush draws (with potentially a pair).

Through combinatorics, OESD and flush draws are much more common here than TP J+ kicker and sets which are the hands that crush us. Furthermore, because there was no preflop raise, checking with a set here would be pretty bad unless the table was maniacal and could expect a flop bet a majority of the time. Thus, we can discount the hands that crush us from SB, BB and UTG+1.

Furthermore, we have a T which slightly increases our equity against any 7x hands. We have top pair with a gutshot on a non monotone board. Raise/call one more, and re-evaluate on the turn.
 
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