$.50/1 FLHE 6-max: Middle pair/weak kicker in contested pot.

Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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$.50/1 FL HE 6-max: Middle pair/weak kicker in contested pot.

poker stars, $0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $8.35 (16.7 bb)
MP: $49.20 (98.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $27.05 (54.1 bb)
BTN: $32.05 (64.1 bb)
SB: $17.75 (35.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J
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5
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MP folds, Hero raises, BTN calls, SB folds, BB calls

Flop: ($3.25) J
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K
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3
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(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN raises, BB calls Hero???

K, reasons for raising: All opponents are 60/0/1ish and we're 5 handed in decent position

Flop comes nice against those kinds of stats, but my bet gets raised and the other calls. Should I be overcalling? There's honestly a chance I'm still best here, and while I can't expect another J to give me a winner, the 3 fives probably will. So let's say I have 4 outs. I'm getting about 12:1 immediate odds, can this occasionally be a call?
 
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WurlyQ

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Summary: Peel one. Fold on a blank turn.

If you think you have the equivalent of 4 outs (which I think is about right considering counterfit possibilities but on a relatively dry board), you need about 12:1 implied odds to continue which you definitely have.

Also, why can we not expect a J to give you the winner? I would prefer a J over a 5 to be honest so you can't get counterfitted and because K5 could easily be in villain's range.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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Summary: Peel one. Fold on a blank turn.

If you think you have the equivalent of 4 outs (which I think is about right considering counterfit possibilities but on a relatively dry board), you need about 12:1 implied odds to continue which you definitely have.

Also, why can we not expect a J to give you the winner? I would prefer a J over a 5 to be honest so you can't get counterfitted and because K5 could easily be in villain's range.

I'm not too confident about another J because as you know in FL people coming along for the ride often have middle pair, and I doubt my J is the best one out there. I'll still see a showdown with 3 jacks, but I'm not 100% I'll win it
 
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WurlyQ

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I'm not too confident about another J because as you know in FL people coming along for the ride often have middle pair, and I doubt my J is the best one out there. I'll still see a showdown with 3 jacks, but I'm not 100% I'll win it

Summary: What's to say that jacks up would win? Remember reverse implied odds and hidden outs associated with two pair. Trips > 2 pair and are thus, rarer.
It's not that important to understand the concepts below but I wouldn't get into the mindset that two pair > trips if I were you.

Long winded explanation:
You have to consider some of the reverse implied odds of getting counterfitted on the river if you hit your 5 on the turn (if you've read SSHE, this is the hidden outs concept for this situation):

1. If they hold a pair of kings, they most likely have 8 outs (2 Ks, 3 3's, and 3 of their kicker)

2. If they hold QQ or AA (depending on how big your sample size of PFR # is), they have 8 outs (3 Ks, 3 3s, 3 Qs or As)

Compare this with the scenario of you hitting a jack on the turn. They essentially are drawing to two outs.

Also, 60VPIP means villain holds K5 and K3 in their range and that if you hit trip Js, there is only 1 remaining J in the deck along with not losing to better two pair. Trips > 2 pair so you have to remember that they are a much more vulnerable holding. Yes, there are more combinations of better Jx (28 excluding JK) than K5 (12) and K3 (9) combined but it's relatively close and a lot of the Jx holdings may not have a kicker that plays by the river. Yes, I will admit that your implied odds are lower because a paired board is much more apparent to everyone but in a hand where no one can fold, I'd much rather be holding a stronger hand.

Trips are rare so when you get them, bet/raise with confidence. If you value bet well on the river, not playing trip Js strong is comparable to checking the river whenever a draw comes in when you have a strong hand (basically something you shouldn't be doing).
 
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WurlyQ

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fold preflop?

If BB is a fish that folds too much, I don't mind this raise at all, but yes, under most circumstances, J5s should not be in a CO open raise range.
 
Emperor IX

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You've definitely made me rethink that. Very good analysis and I think you're right.

Here's the rest of the hand:

I called, 5 on the turn

I bet, he raises again, I flat along with bb

river: a beautiful 5. betting gets capped.

Button has K8, bb has J4s, I drag a nice pot
 
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