Originally Posted by Emperor IX
I'm not too confident about another J because as you know in FL people coming along for the ride often have middle pair, and I doubt my J is the best one out there. I'll still see a showdown with 3 jacks, but I'm not 100% I'll win it
Summary: What's to say that jacks up would win? Remember reverse implied odds and hidden outs associated with two pair. Trips > 2 pair and are thus, rarer.
It's not that important to understand the concepts below but I wouldn't get into the mindset that two pair > trips if I were you.
Long winded explanation:
You have to consider some of the reverse implied odds of getting counterfitted on the river if you hit your 5 on the turn (if you've read SSHE, this is the hidden outs concept for this situation):
1. If they hold a pair of kings, they most likely have 8 outs (2 Ks, 3 3's, and 3 of their kicker)
2. If they hold QQ or AA (depending on how big your sample size of PFR # is), they have 8 outs (3 Ks, 3 3s, 3 Qs or As)
Compare this with the scenario of you hitting a jack on the turn. They essentially are drawing to two outs.
Also, 60VPIP means villain holds K5 and K3 in their range and that if you hit trip Js, there is only 1 remaining J in the deck along with not losing to better two pair. Trips > 2 pair so you have to remember that they are a much more vulnerable holding. Yes, there are more combinations of better Jx (28 excluding JK) than K5 (12) and K3 (9) combined but it's relatively close and a lot of the Jx holdings may not have a kicker that plays by the river. Yes, I will admit that your implied odds are lower because a paired board is much more apparent to everyone but in a hand where no one can fold, I'd much rather be holding a stronger hand.
Trips are rare so when you get them, bet/raise with confidence. If you value bet well on the river, not playing trip Js strong is comparable to checking the river whenever a draw comes in when you have a strong hand (basically something you shouldn't be doing).