$5 NLHEFull Ring: Turn spot, 3-bet flop with overcards, hit on turn, barrel?

LuckyChippy

LuckyChippy

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Villain is 13/2/4.7 over 175 hands. On the turn I feel he's basically always folding, It's a spot where I'm always barrelling and a spot where he folds a ton. During the hand I actually thought do I not bet cause he'll just fold. Do I check or just stfu and bet? :p

full tilt poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 957305
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $3.77
Hero (MP1): $5.00
MP2: $5.59
CO: $7.35
BTN: $4.83
SB: $3.32
BB: $9.27
UTG: $4.95

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP1 with A J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 4 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42) 9 2 7 (2 players)
BB bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.62) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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[ ] Flop 3-bet.
[x] Hero should stfu and bet the turn.

I also think this is a pretty bad flop to bluff raise given how wet it is. Lots of JT/hearts/mid pair type hands that aren't going to give up to your small raise.

And that kinda influences my decision to bet the turn. Almost all of his hands have some equity here (except for like, 88), and even though he's going to fold a lot, we need to give him the opportunity to make a mistake. Its better to bet, and have him fold, then to check and let him play well against us. I'd stick in $1 and see what happens.
 
LuckyChippy

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Yeah sorry about the misuse of terms there, it's just a raise.
 
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baudib1

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Once in a while when you barrel this turn you need to actually show up with an ace in this spot to give your bluffs credibility as well as giving more balance to your flop-raising range.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Once in a while when you barrel this turn you need to actually show up with an ace in this spot to give your bluffs credibility as well as giving more balance to your flop-raising range.
Cuz all of this means absolutely nothing at these stakes.
 
Pascal-lf

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Once in a while when you barrel this turn you need to actually show up with an ace in this spot to give your bluffs credibility as well as giving more balance to your flop-raising range.

I'VE GOT A FLUSH DRAW AND A STRAIGHT DARW IM CALLING LOLLLLLLL OH NO HES GOT AN ACE

Above is general thinking by 2NL player
 
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ComplexPlaya

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[ ] Flop 3-bet.
[x] Hero should stfu and bet the turn.

I also think this is a pretty bad flop to bluff raise given how wet it is. Lots of JT/hearts/mid pair type hands that aren't going to give up to your small raise.

And that kinda influences my decision to bet the turn. Almost all of his hands have some equity here (except for like, 88), and even though he's going to fold a lot, we need to give him the opportunity to make a mistake. Its better to bet, and have him fold, then to check and let him play well against us. I'd stick in $1 and see what happens.

Villain is a 13/2 nit, are we really expecting second pairs and alot of draws there? If he's positionally aware at all, he will play even less from the blinds.

I think his range is mostly pocket pairs, that either hit a set or are in-between like 66, 88 or TT-JJ, maybe QQ+ as well. Some flush draws of course, but not that many - KQ, maybe QJ and JT, ATh+ but less likely since we have a blocker. Since he plays 13% straight draws are unlikely, and I really don't see top pair / 2nd pair here (almost) ever

Keeping that in mind, you can bet but fold to a raise imo, and I don't hate pot controlling either thinking a set will play it like that alot of times.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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A 13/2 is not a nit. A 13/2 is a bad player.
 
LuckyChippy

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I bet, he folded.

Oh and I bet like $1.20.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Forget results.

My point was we can't just say this is 5NL, get it in they will have 2nd pair etc. - if villain shoved / raised the turn it was a clear fold imo. Look at stats and the dobk bet and try to assign a range, it's easy for a 13% cold calling the blinds imo
 
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LuckyChippy

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Forget results.

My point was we can't just say this is 5NL, get it in they will have 2nd pair etc. - if villain shoved / raised the turn it was a clear fold imo. Look at stats and the dobk bet and try to assign a range, it's easy for a 13% cold calling the blinds imo

I'm not saying results matter at all. The discussion died down, so I posted the results.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Yeah, $1.20 seems fine to me.
 
bgomez89

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oops i was looking at the turn pot size and not the river, my bad
 
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