Originally Posted by c9h13no3
[ ] Flop 3-bet.
[x] Hero should stfu and bet the turn.
I also think this is a pretty bad flop to bluff raise given how wet it is. Lots of JT/hearts/mid pair type hands that aren't going to give up to your small raise.
And that kinda influences my decision to bet the turn. Almost all of his hands have some equity here (except for like, 88), and even though he's going to fold a lot, we need to give him the opportunity to make a mistake. Its better to bet, and have him fold, then to check and let him play well against us. I'd stick in $1 and see what happens.
Villain is a 13/2 nit, are we really expecting second pairs and alot of draws there? If he's positionally aware at all, he will play even less from the blinds.
I think his range is mostly pocket pairs, that either hit a set or are in-between like 66, 88 or TT-JJ, maybe QQ+ as well. Some flush draws of course, but not that many - KQ, maybe QJ and JT, ATh+ but less likely since we have a blocker. Since he plays 13% straight draws are unlikely, and I really don't see top pair / 2nd pair here (almost) ever
Keeping that in mind, you can bet but fold to a raise imo, and I don't hate pot controlling either thinking a set will play it like that alot of times.