$5 NLHE6-max: River spot, call/fold vs whale draw hit.

LuckyChippy

LuckyChippy

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Villain is 77/46/3.7 over 37 hands.

Probs gonna get top 2 vs fish caaaalll but I think it's at least worth looking at as I did have to pause.

Villain is drawing here like always imo which is why I hated the river. Are we always calling? Probably but I'm not sure. How does it change if it was a heart? Qh?


full tilt poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 965067
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $5.48
SB: $5.93
BB: $7.37
UTG: $4.46
MP: $8.90
CO: $5.07

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with J T
UTG raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) T J 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, UTG calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.97) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1, UTG calls $0.75

River: ($2.97) Q (2 players)
UTG bets $1.88, Hero ?
 
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ComplexPlaya

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This is a fold imo, he donk-bet twice and called raises, it's not like you're inducing him to bluff he knows you're strong. I think he can do this with Qhxh for instance but not always, and I doubt he's bluffing with air ever
 
cjatud2012

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pretty sure I'd raise both the flop and turn more since they're so wet. On the river he probably has 9x less than you'd think here, and he probably wouldn't donk three times with it. Still kind of a cruddy spot, probably have to make the crying call though.
 
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baudib1

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Fold the river. UTG will show you AK, 9x here like 80% of the time imo.
 
LuckyChippy

LuckyChippy

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pretty sure I'd raise both the flop and turn more since they're so wet. On the river he probably has 9x less than you'd think here, and he probably wouldn't donk three times with it. Still kind of a cruddy spot, probably have to make the crying call though.

I thought my sizing was ok, but I see I could have made it bigger, wouldn't say it was small by any stretch though.

Fold the river. UTG will show you AK, 9x here like 80% of the time imo.

Really? 80%? Even against a villain like this?
 
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baudib1

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yah, against a tighter, passive player I think they have it 100%, 20% represents chance of a frush draw or like AQ.
 
LuckyChippy

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Is it just me that thinks his range looks like this by the river:

ATs+,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,KTs+,Kh9h,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo.

And this is what he would bet if he NEVER bet busted draws:

AJs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo.
 
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baudib1

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do you really think he's betting strong with like 2nd pair on this board after you raised his mini-bets twice?
 
c9h13no3

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I thought my sizing was ok, but I see I could have made it bigger, wouldn't say it was small by any stretch though.
On the flop, potsized is like 50ish. You made a 3/5ths pot sized raise on a wet flop against an opponent who will call a 7/5ths pot sized raise. So yeah, you were about 40c too small. Hero raises to $0.70, IMO.
 
LuckyChippy

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Ok, raise bigger, that seems like a big improvement I can make. I've always felt bound by the 3x rule and thought my 4x was big. I'll be looking to make more pot-sized bets in future in these spots.

We need about 40% equity on the river, with only one straight AK in his range imo, as I dont think a 9 pretty much ever, and sets don't make sense to me against an aggro villain like this.

Is this more reasonable?:

AQs+,KQs,QTs+,JTs,AQo+,KQo,QJo.

We're about 50/50 according to stove.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Ok, raise bigger, that seems like a big improvement I can make. I've always felt bound by the 3x rule and thought my 4x was big. I'll be looking to make more pot-sized bets in future in these spots.

We need about 40% equity on the river, with only one straight AK in his range imo, as I dont think a 9 pretty much ever, and sets don't make sense to me against an aggro villain like this.

Is this more reasonable?:

AQs+,KQs,QTs+,JTs,AQo+,KQo,QJo.

We're about 50/50 according to stove.

It's not reasonable, you're looking for excuses on making the call imo.

If you got 5-1 pot odds on the river here, it's still a fold. 7-1, a fold. I think 10-1 can be a call because you know, wtf :)

I'm not kidding either. This is a black and white situation, you either play an aggro donk who you'll beat alot here, or any other player (tag, nit, calling station WHALE, they'll always beat you.)

Now all that was for future reference in situations like this. I see villain is 77/46/3.7 which smells of bluff bluff bluff, so if you think he's that kind of player you're way more than 50% and should definitely call.

Up to you to know if he's bluffing spots like that, keep in mind it's a weird way to bluff for an aggro donk too btw, most slow down once you raised them, unless he's a total maniac that goes all in every hand or something
 
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baudib1

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I don't know how you can not say someone who is 77/46 doesn't have 9x in his range here when you put him on a draw on the flop, wtf.

against most sane people you will see them play this board pretty straightforward and you could arguably fold 9x against most of them.
 
LuckyChippy

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I don't know how you can not say someone who is 77/46 doesn't have 9x in his range here when you put him on a draw on the flop, wtf.

against most sane people you will see them play this board pretty straightforward and you could arguably fold 9x against most of them.

Yeah I take it back, I see combos of like Q9/K9/A9 in there.

So the general consensus is it's a fold? Or more my personal read dependent? Basically a fold unless I can find reasons/reads to call.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I don't know how you can not say someone who is 77/46 doesn't have 9x in his range here when you put him on a draw on the flop, wtf.

against most sane people you will see them play this board pretty straightforward and you could arguably fold 9x against most of them.

Well firstly it was over 37 hands, so lol sample size. Countless times I've been 10/5 on some table over 200 hands being card dead, others way fishy stats when I was getting 'em.

The other issue is the line taken imo, b/c twice then bet river. This and his bet sizing is not consistent with an aggro monkey bluffing imo.
 
LuckyChippy

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I called and he ended up having KQo which kinda made sense. My read that he was drawing was correct but I'm thinking now that against his range and this type of player we can find a fold. I think KQ might be the only hand we beat that bets river here except for maybe AQh.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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I called and he ended up having KQo which kinda made sense. My read that he was drawing was correct but I'm thinking now that against his range and this type of player we can find a fold. I think KQ might be the only hand we beat that bets river here except for maybe AQh.

Yeah, just watch his tendencies, not all bluffy players bluff the same way. His was pretty strange and made little sense. Also the # of hands, 37 isn't that much to make a hero call...what if he shoved for instance ?
 
LuckyChippy

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Yeah, just watch his tendencies, not all bluffy players bluff the same way. His was pretty strange and made little sense. Also the # of hands, 37 isn't that much to make a hero call...what if he shoved for instance ?

Shove would make me almost 100% to fold I think. Is that bad/wrong?
 
forsakenone

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i would call, don't care what others say. i read a few, everyone says fold, i call and if i lose so be it. he is too big of a fish, plus, if i lose at least i get the information for later.
 
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