$5 NLHE Full Ring: Typical 5NL hand (value betting goes wrong and I get stacked by a fish)

$5 NLHE Full Ring: Typical 5NL (value betting goes wrong and I get stacked by a fish)

full tilt poker Game #32728619914: Table Zi - NL Hold'em - $0.02/$0.05 - 20:25:54 ET - 2013/05/27
Seat 1: SB ($2.49)
Seat 2: BB ($5)
Seat 3: UTG ($6.55)
Seat 4: UTG+1 ($6.48)
Seat 5: Hero ($6.27)
Seat 6: HJ ($6.87)
Seat 8: CO ($4.83)
Seat 9: BTN ($2.24)
SB posts the small blind of $0.02
BB posts the big blind of $0.05
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8d 8h]
UTG folds
UTG+1 raises to $0.10
Hero calls $0.10
HJ folds
CO calls $0.10
BTN calls $0.10
SB folds
BB folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd Td 8s] (Total Pot: $0.47, 4 Players)
UTG+1 bets $0.10
Hero raises to $0.35
2 folds
UTG+1 calls $0.25
*** TURN *** [Kd Td 8s] J♣ (Total Pot: $1.17, 2 Players)
UTG+1 checks
Hero bets $2.20
UTG+1 calls $2.20
*** RIVER *** [Kd Td 8s Jc] Q♥ (Total Pot: $5.57, 2 Players)
UTG+1 bets $3.83, and is all in
Hero calls $3.62, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $0.21 returned to UTG+1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
UTG+1 shows [Ad Jd] a straight, Ace high
Hero mucks
UTG+1 wins the pot ($12.17) with a straight, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $12.81 | Rake $0.64

OK I have converted this crap by hand since HEM export of FT hands is garbage.

UTG+1 is a MEGA fish who is only winning pots against me and bleeds money all over the place otherwise.

This type of hand is basically the main reason I am losing at 5NL. There are mistakes and leaks but this is BY FAR the loss leader. None of this shows on any EV diff. or anything like that... BTW I checked and I am breaking even when calling all ins so only if I could improve this hand type I would be easily in the black instead of bleeding money slowly.

Scenario is always the same, I value bet into a mega fish and in 80% of the cases he hits what he needs on the river (nevermind that his equity is 25% even with the combo draw).

I call the river shove since he is a retard and will shove any 2 pairs or even some kind of medium pair/broken draw because why not.

0. 3betting is pretty questionable since I get the money in 100% of the time with a set if the whale hits any piece of the board and he isn't folding to a 3bet anyway.
1. Overbet on the turn is because he WILL call 100% of the time if he called the flop raise and pretty much always he is drawing to something. It is large enough to even make a combo draw unprofitable (in theory). He will also call the river shove 100% of the time since he definitely has some kind of pair here and he doesn't know the fold button exists.
2. Is it really profitable for him to call the turn 100% of the time with any draw (note that in this case the draw is pretty good and STILL his equity is only 25%)?
*** Seriously, people who do this against me are minting money at a truly astonishing rate and I always find that purely mathematically it is unprofitable to call. Maybe I suck at math?

Edit: Yes I can shove the turn but MAYBE he folds... note that I fired 2x pot and he cold called it easy peasy so the max amount is somewhere between 2x and a shove. It just looks ridiculous when I overbet like this (I do it exclusively against this player type and it SHOULD be profitable but instead I am getting murdered).

you lost a flip /thread

Not really losing a flip, question imo is whether or not to call the donk shove otr.

We can probs raise more on the flop. We're multiway and there's 0.50c otf, so if we raise to 35 we're giving people like 2:1 to call. Think we can raise to like 45 without getting people to fold, so we're getting people to make a -ev peel.

Shoving the turn would be lolwtf bad.

Otr, I dunno, I think it's a fold unless we have any reason to think that he might be doing this as a bluff with busted flush draw or something.

Bad call...

-

Really bad call.

You can't just give respect to a fish on the river, and yes I have checked my river calls of shoves in these situations and they are breakeven. He shoves all flush draws that missed.

My own shoves are massively +EV here (he always has at least a pair after this line and these guys don't fold pairs), it is just that there are so few of them... these draws just come so often that it seems that 75% equity on turn is a "flip".

Flop/turn is the key here, since he had such a big draw his turn call is too borderline (he does the same with just a FD and then it is a big mistake). I just didn't think more than 2x pot is justifiable... probably 2.5x is best just in case of a combo draw.

Also, the flop raise needs to be bigger for sure. He never folds anyway so why I made it so small is a mystery.

baudib1 - Your remark is totally off mark, I am losing hands in this manner super often and it is the main problem as far as money drain. Presumably this can't last forever BUT if it is not just runbad then I have to fix my play here.

Yeah you do have to fix your play. You need to stop calling here.

Your perceptions of his play are miles off. If he was aggro enough to shovebluff a missed draw, then he is a player who is getting it in on that flop. He simply isn't shoving that river with something you beat.

ScottishMatt said:

Yeah you do have to fix your play. You need to stop calling here.

Your perceptions of his play are miles off. If he was aggro enough to shovebluff a missed draw, then he is a player who is getting it in on that flop. He simply isn't shoving that river with something you beat.

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This. Most villains are not shoving this river often enough OOP to make it +EV call. Any worse hand he checks down and any draw that bricked probably raises flop if he was the type of player to just jam this river with a bricked draw.

Hmm. I will have to go back and review past rivers but missed draws do get shoved into me quite often with these big pot sizes. Meaning, this kind of line is not so rare.

This is the logic:
His 3.83 shove into 5.57 pot doesn't need many folds to be profitable (only 41%), while if he gets it all in on the flop he actually needs to hit his outs (and he is only 35% to win).

Basically it is kind of an advantage to be OOP here since he puts me to a decision and since you all think the call is bad this is minting money without even needing to hit anything. I need you guys on my tables people who always fold sets to shoves, yey!

Just kidding, but you get my point... I think his shove is not so bad regardless of what he has, but I am pissed off about my flop/turn sizing, his turn call and how freaking often these things hit.

I do very much appreciate the feedback and would love to hear what you guys think about the above line of thought? If the shoe is on the other foot, do you bluffshove the river if you miss the draws (assume you have KQs for 2 pairs but put the other guy on a set)?

LD1977 said:

Hmm. I will have to go back and review past rivers but missed draws do get shoved into me quite often with these big pot sizes. Meaning, this kind of line is not so rare.

This is the logic:
His 3.83 shove into 5.57 pot doesn't need many folds to be profitable (only 41%), while if he gets it all in on the flop he actually needs to hit his outs (and he is only 35% to win).

Basically it is kind of an advantage to be OOP here since he puts me to a decision and since you all think the call is bad this is minting money without even needing to hit anything. I need you guys on my tables people who always fold sets to shoves, yey!

Just kidding, but you get my point... I think his shove is not so bad regardless of what he has, but I am pissed off about my flop/turn sizing, his turn call and how freaking often these things hit.

I do very much appreciate the feedback and would love to hear what you guys think about the above line of thought? If the shoe is on the other foot, do you bluffshove the river if you miss the draws (assume you have KQs for 2 pairs but put the other guy on a set)?

Click to expand...

Villain is just never bluffing here. So many worse hands check it back and won't call a shove or shove river. All draws don't shove either because he has to be scared HERO has an Ace or a 9. He just shoves for value because he is scared of HERO checking back. If villain was IP and was a good player that was capable of shoving all bricked on the river once he was shown weakness then it would also still be a fold. Too many 9's and Ace's in his range and so few draws.

Also don't post results and use a hand converter, horrible to read.

Really? If opponent is IP I often (not always) check river here to induce a shove from a missed draw and it pretty much always comes, it is automatic. Against better players I sometimes fire a very small bet that makes him think he might induce a fold with a shove. It works great.

I didn't actually represent an Ace with my line, he has to think I have some kind of made hand and the turn bet sizing especially just screams of a made hand that wants to stop/charge draws. Ideal bluffing situation when any Broadway card hits the river, no?

LD1977 said:

Hmm. I will have to go back and review past rivers but missed draws do get shoved into me quite often with these big pot sizes. Meaning, this kind of line is not so rare.

This is the logic:
His 3.83 shove into 5.57 pot doesn't need many folds to be profitable (only 41%), while if he gets it all in on the flop he actually needs to hit his outs (and he is only 35% to win).

Basically it is kind of an advantage to be OOP here since he puts me to a decision and since you all think the call is bad this is minting money without even needing to hit anything. I need you guys on my tables people who always fold sets to shoves, yey!

Just kidding, but you get my point... I think his shove is not so bad regardless of what he has, but I am pissed off about my flop/turn sizing, his turn call and how freaking often these things hit.

I do very much appreciate the feedback and would love to hear what you guys think about the above line of thought? If the shoe is on the other foot, do you bluffshove the river if you miss the draws (assume you have KQs for 2 pairs but put the other guy on a set)?

Click to expand...

Clearly you don't appreciate the feedback enough. Your line of thought is wrong. What we do in villain's shoes is a mute point because we aren't villain.

Fact is you can use logic and maths all you want, you still made the wrong decision. Don't even attempt to justify your call here. It is unjustifiable. I'm so out of touch with poker maths and yet I make the correct decision here without a moments hesitation.

This once just listen to us and realise that you are wrong in these spots. Learn to fold here and you will have a considerable increase in winrate.

Ok I would Just like to chime in and say ur call is HORRENDOUS on the river. Please inform me of what you think he's shoving that u beat. It's almost like u got tunnel vision with a set and couldn't give him credit for a hand it was really clear he had a straight. A huge part of poker maximizing profit and MINIMIZING losses when they come. In this hand u lost the most possible with a hand that I have a feeling deep down u knew u were beat on the river but were like "nah man a set is unbeatable here" and happily committed ur entire stack with a hand that was obviously beat.

If you know its a fish, then you should know that they will call a raise if they have outs. Chasing a gutshot to the river is what fish do. 4 card open ended straight on the board. Def fold here.

LD1977 said:

Really? If opponent is IP I often (not always) check river here to induce a shove from a missed draw and it pretty much always comes, it is automatic. Against better players I sometimes fire a very small bet that makes him think he might induce a fold with a shove. It works great.

I didn't actually represent an Ace with my line, he has to think I have some kind of made hand and the turn bet sizing especially just screams of a made hand that wants to stop/charge draws. Ideal bluffing situation when any Broadway card hits the river, no?

Click to expand...

Well if that's working for you against those villains then by all means use it again. However the sample size probably isn't big enough.

Also this is where fish fail, don't make the same mistake, they presume that you are shoving bluffs on 4 to a straight all the time and call with all kind of junk.

ScottishMatt said:

Clearly you don't appreciate the feedback enough. Your line of thought is wrong. What we do in villain's shoes is a mute point because we aren't villain.

Fact is you can use logic and maths all you want, you still made the wrong decision. Don't even attempt to justify your call here. It is unjustifiable. I'm so out of touch with poker maths and yet I make the correct decision here without a moments hesitation.

This once just listen to us and realise that you are wrong in these spots. Learn to fold here and you will have a considerable increase in winrate.

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Bit harsh. I'm pretty sure he does like the feedback, it's just a hard game to master .

Yoshimii - I can't find any hand converter that works with Full Tilt. They changed their HH outputs recently and it seems no HC has adjusted. I contaced FT support and they said they don't care about that and the HCs should adjust (which is fair enough, just it is unclear why they changed the HHs and caused this problem in the first place). I also contacted HM support and they ALSO said they won't bother changing their outputs.

So I am stuck for now and this is why I stopped posting hand histories lately.

As for the feedback, it is interesting to hear what everybody thinks.

I admit it is probably a mistake to call this shove from a fish since everybody agrees.

However, it has become clear that this spot is in fact super turbo fantastic bluffing spot against anyone who appears competent since everybody would massively fold and the FE needed is lolsmall. Worth knowing and definitely the best EV from the thread.

I think call on river was wrong.
You say fish will shove any missed draw. But I dont see missed draws in that hand. If the river was dry, then you could hope for missed draw.

Yoshimiii said:

Bit harsh. I'm pretty sure he does like the feedback, it's just a hard game to master .

Click to expand...

Maybe so, but OP seems to negate everything everyone is saying. Which defeats the purpose of putting the hand up for analysis.

Oh and my .02 cents is im folding all day!

I am not negating anything outright, I have presented counter arguments and hopefully in a discussion some kind of truth emerges. This is how chess players normally analyze games, or have analyzed before computers became powerhouses.

Calling may be bad but then autoshoving in this spot is pretty great so there has to be some kind of balance (if you NEVER call then you are exploitable). Against a fish maybe not but I can imagine better players having fun in this spot with each other.

Just automatically accepting everything is not a path to improvement.

We're talking about 5nl right?

In my fairly limited experience, when a fish calls two streets and shoves a hand OOP with a four to straight connected board, you are toast if you don't have a straight. This is a VERY strong line from a fish. Do not call without close to nuts type of hand, which in this case your 8 set is not.

Fish are loose passive and are for some retarded or pussyfooted reason are more comfortable calling than putting money in themselves. When they do, they have something big.

Also let's see what you beat....?.actually given this board your hand is a bluff catcher. Most Fish don't bluff. You COULD put him on two pair if he's retarded but even retards get scared with this board while holding two pair, they rather see a cheap showdown and if you bet IP after they check, they will call to bluff catch (again, fish behavior, thinking everyone is bluffing them)



Also, raise your flop bigger, a LOT bigger, maybe 55 cents at the minimum. It's awesomely drawn board and your set is going to get owned by a lot of turnriver cards and you have so many players otf.

LD1977 said:

I am not negating anything outright, I have presented counter arguments and hopefully in a discussion some kind of truth emerges. This is how chess players normally analyze games, or have analyzed before computers became powerhouses.

Calling may be bad but then autoshoving in this spot is pretty great so there has to be some kind of balance (if you NEVER call then you are exploitable). Against a fish maybe not but I can imagine better players having fun in this spot with each other.

Just automatically accepting everything is not a path to improvement.

Click to expand...

Yes this would in fact I think would be a balancing spot at hire levels of play but really, this is 5nl, don't make playing fish more confusing than it really is.

Trust me, I toyed with the idea of balance and extracting more value with marginal hands but it mostly backfires. I get way more bbs/100 at 5nl once I go back to unbalanced play.

Think about it, most fish play stereotypically ( of course theres loose passive fish, agro fish and whatever other fish) all the time.

Now with a game of rock paper scissors, if a player is playing scissors every game, will you balance by playing 33 pct of each? Course you won,t you'll play 100 percent rock.

Thins is actually poker is an elaborate game of rock paper scissor, and fish are unknowingly playing only one of them every time.

Agree, I made a clear mistake on the flop. Better flop sizing would make turn 2x pot bet immediately good even vs a combo draw like he had. A learning point for sure.

The whole fish thinking angle seems to be correct even though I did catch quite a few bluffs this way. Maybe those were exceptions. They definitely check/call if I bet a huge majority of the time.

Yes, my hand is a bluffcatcher vs. 2 pair hands and flush draws that whiffed.

Presumably someone who reads hands would guess that I probably don't have an Ace and could bluff shove here but not a passive fishy type of guy.

You are clearly overanalyzing this and being results oriented. Your mentality and approach to this hh is totally wrong.

I think my original post in this thread says all that needs to be said really. You were destined to lose a big pot on this runout and the only mistake is in calling the river.

You got lucky because he played it passively and didn't 3-bet the flop and let you get away cheaply when the scariest river card came, but you paid him off anyway.

You could bet larger on the flop but that doesn't accomplish much. That's maybe a 5-10 bb mistake whereas calling the river is a 72 BB mistake. You have a monster; he has a monster. You did a decent job of extracting value even though the turn bet is pretty LOL and that's all you can really hope to accomplish on the flop and on the turn.

Forget balance, he's never bluffing nor value betting 2P (lol), just fold da riv yo.