$5 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK in 3bet pot, River decision

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eggerdy

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PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $5.32 (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.84, hands: 276)
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $4.80 (VPIP: 19.91, PFR: 4.63, 3Bet Preflop: 1.16, Hands: 216)
BB: $5.07 (VPIP: 12.17, PFR: 10.27, 3Bet Preflop: 1.19, Hands: 265)
UTG: $3.57 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: $7.04 (VPIP: 15.83, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 121)
MP: $5.07 (VPIP: 83.33, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP+1: $5.67 (VPIP: 10.76, PFR: 8.46, 3Bet Preflop: 3.30, Hands: 966)
MP+2: $5.25 (VPIP: 20.94, PFR: 19.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.27, Hands: 762)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A K

fold, fold, MP calls $0.05, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.65, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.42, 2 players) T K 2
CO checks, Hero bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.82, 2 players) 6
CO checks, Hero bets $1.62, CO calls $1.62

River: ($6.06, 2 players) J
CO bets $2.35 and is all-in, Hero?

Villain's fold to 3bet% is 44% and he has an AF of 2.14.

I'm pretty sure I'm beat when he donk shoves the river. But my question is, would it be a mistake to fold getting 4:1?

Thanks
 
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razzor94

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Sklansky had a concept in his book that was based on an idea that a poker is a game of mistakes. If you could see your opponents hole cards your goal should be to make no mistakes against them and make them make mistakes against you.
Ofcourse we cant see our opponents hole cards, but there are certain spots when we know we are beat and according to Sklansky we slouldnt make that mistake of calling, no mather what the price is.
The other thing i want to talk about is your turn bet.
You have to ask yourself what can this guy have that you beat that would call the 3bet and then the Cbet. He could have hands like tens trough queens, AK, KQ, and becouse of his fold to 3Bet stats ww can even assume he has KJ, KT and QJ. These are the hands that would call the 3bet and the Cbet.
Now that you 've put all that in your head there is another thing to think about and that is your relative hand strenght. Given his range what does my TPTK beat once he calls the Cbet on that board and can it sustain more betting rounds ? Is my hand good enough to put all my money in against his range?
I look at it this way: If the pot is getting to big for my relative hand strenght then i would much rather choose to control the pot and win small then to try to get him off of his draws and lose big if i am wrong.
If this guy was fishy your relative hand strenght would go higher in value, but in this certain situation i dont think my TPTK is good enough for a turn bet cause you are commiting yourself to the pot with a hand thats not good for putting all my money in and more times then not you are going to face tough decisions on the river.
 
Four Dogs

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It's KQ. No question about it. When it can't be a bluff the odds don't matter. Fold.
 
c9h13no3

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I'm calling. These donkey shoves are often not monsters and we're getting great odds.
 
Aces2w1n

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Yeah I'm calling as well... looks like a last tempt in desperation by villain
 
IPlay

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Last tempt what?

If this was like 60% pot shove you can find a fold here but for this price, sigh call.
 
weldphaser

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Yeah I'm calling as well... looks like a last tempt in desperation by villain

IDK brother, what does he have us beat with? JT, KJ, 66, he's not a nit more weak passive so when he donk shoves, we almost always beat especially @ 5nl
 
Lucothefish

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It's KQ. No question about it. When it can't be a bluff the odds don't matter. Fold.

You mean kj? We beat kq

I think youre beat and possibly should have checked back the turn if you didnt want to play tp for stacks
 
Four Dogs

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You mean kj? We beat kq

I think youre beat and possibly should have checked back the turn if you didn't want to play tp for stacks
Yuck. I hate it when i do that.

But the point is still that the villain is extremely polarized. It's either a bluff or a value bet. There's no value bet that you beat and is a guy with .84 3bet % ever bluffing? I don't think a pair is ever good here.
 
Last edited:
WVHillbilly

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Call. You'll run into worse often enough to make it profitable imo.
 
Aces2w1n

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IDK brother, what does he have us beat with? JT, KJ, 66, he's not a nit more weak passive so when he donk shoves, we almost always beat especially @ 5nl



LOL I meant call ... I said it's our villains last attempt at getting us to fold :)
 
Aces2w1n

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Last tempt what?

If this was like 60% pot shove you can find a fold here but for this price, sigh call.


I wasn't folding. I just need a translater sometimes lol.
 
Aces2w1n

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Yuck. I hate it when i do that.

But the point is still that the villain is extremely polarized. It's either a bluff or a value bet. There's no value bet that you beat and is a guy with .84 3bet % ever bluffing? I don't think a pair is ever good here.


Are you saying that because you know ppl post hands that they lose most of the time??
 
Four Dogs

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Are you saying that because you know ppl post hands that they lose most of the time??


No, I'm saying it because his stats suggest that he's a straight forward player and someone who 3 bets only twice in almost 300 hands probably doesn't have a bluffing range.
 
weldphaser

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No, I'm saying it because his stats suggest that he's a straight forward player and someone who 3 bets only twice in almost 300 hands probably doesn't have a bluffing range.

i'm leaning towards your dogs suggesion here. i just don't see this as a bluff @ 5nl.

And as for what your saying aces, yeah it's his last chance to get us to fold, but we have had the beatibg lead and then he donk shoves..... usually means a average to below average player is afraid we're not going to bet , and can't help himself w/ whatever he has, but it beats us I'll tell you that.
 
Aces2w1n

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No, I'm saying it because his stats suggest that he's a straight forward player and someone who 3 bets only twice in almost 300 hands probably doesn't have a bluffing range.


ohhh good point. I'm jealous :(
 
IPlay

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I think we are beat here a lot, but we only need to be good here 20% of the time. Do you guys think villain called pre with KJ? Do you think he got to this river with JJ? Seems like he may have AK here pretty often or some other random spaz hand which is really what we need to breakeven on the call. Larger bet, sure we fold but getting this price it is really hard to fold.
 
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eggerdy

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Checking back the turn was something I hadn't considered. It definitely would have made my decision on the river easier had he shoved his stack into a smaller pot.

Given the mixed responses, is it fair to say it's close either way? I think I'm calling against a lot of players, but I can see how in this instance the villain's low 3bet and fold to 3bet %s might edge it towards a fold.

Thanks for the feedback.
 
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