$5 NLHE Full Ring: Top set vs either lower set or a straight

LD1977

LD1977

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MP2 ($4.60)
Hero (CO) ($6.25)
Button ($4.73)
SB ($3.34)
BB ($4.41)
UTG ($13.04)
MP1 ($2.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9
diamond.gif
, 9
spade.gif

3 folds, Hero bets $0.15, Button calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) 8
heart.gif
, 4
club.gif
, 5
diamond.gif
(3 players)
BB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, Button calls $0.20

Turn: ($1.07) 9
club.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.53, Button raises to $1.06, BB calls $1.06, Hero calls $0.53

River: ($4.25) Q
spade.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $2.12, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.12

Total pot: $8.49 | Rake: $0.42

BB is 34 / 22 (UTG raise = 18%) with 4.2% 3bet over 1.1k hands (losing 44 bb/100). AF 1.9 (32%).

Notes:
- 3bets vs PFR and caller with 88 from BB (!)
- set IP checks back flop and bets 3/4 pot on turn

BTN is 20 / 10 / 2.8% 3bet over 3.8k hands, most of it in 2NL. AF 2.5 (29%). I don't have the notes here right now but I regard him as pretty weak and passive player even though he has positive win rate.

Thoughts:
- On the flop I am not folding to a donk bet with my overpair since I don't trust BB to have a clue about what he is doing.
- On the turn I pick up a top set and now I am definitely unlikely to go away against BB, but when BTN raises I know he has a set or better. Now, in the heat of battle I am unsure on the number of combinations for either so I pick the line which is 100% certain to keep all his lower sets in the hand.
- River - This is pure math question. Sets have 9 combos, straights have 12 combos (is this correct)? Raise or just call? I thought I should call since straights > sets.

1. Line check and thinking process evaluation?

Results below:
Button had 8
club.gif
, 8
diamond.gif
(three of a kind, eights).
Hero had 9
diamond.gif
, 9
spade.gif
(three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Hero won $8.07
 
B

baudib1

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bet more on the turn, shove the river, not close.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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WVH chk private messages :)

Yeah turn sucks. He surely bets river though?
 
B

baudib1

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BTW button never has 76o here and facing a raise and no callers, rarely has 76s and that's only if he expands his btn range. So that's at most 4 combos, you have the effective nuts.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Damn it, you are right, 76o is not really likely :( yeah, easy shove.
 
Aleksei

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- On the flop I am not folding to a donk bet with my overpair since I don't trust BB to have a clue about what he is doing.
- On the turn I pick up a top set and now I am definitely unlikely to go away against BB, but when BTN raises I know he has a set or better. Now, in the heat of battle I am unsure on the number of combinations for either so I pick the line which is 100% certain to keep all his lower sets in the hand.
- River - This is pure math question. Sets have 9 combos, straights have 12 combos (is this correct)? Raise or just call? I thought I should call since straights > sets.
A fish is never ever folding anything he can bet. So, if you have a comfortable lead vs his betting range you should be happy getting it in.

But... something about the idea Villain has a set or better just rubs me the wrong way. A completed straight was made on the flop and the 9 completed YOUR set, so why did we not hear from him otf?

I think he has 89, honestly.

Also on that river there's 32 straight combos (20 if he only has 76s, and 8 of he also only has QJs).
 
LD1977

LD1977

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"Also on that river there's 32 straight combos (20 if he only has 76s, and 8 of he also only has QJs)."

That seems a bit much. 76s is 4 combos, JTs (not QJs!) is pretty damn unlikely considering the action but even then it is only additional 4 combos.

Where did you get 32?
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

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16+16, I was counting every straight combo.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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I think baudib1 is correct and he is too tight to go in with offsuit hand there.

I made mistake in that regard (and miscounted straights).
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

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Well then he just has a grand total of 8 straight combos vs like 11-13 worse hands he can have (depending on whether he can have 45). That said honestly I don't think call flop, raise turn makes sense if he has 76 or a lower set -- I think he has 89 and only 89 (or maybe like 97 or whatever but that seems less likely).

In either case just GII. A passive player of any type is NEVER folding anything he shows aggression with and you're ahead of his betting range.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Actually he donked flop and raised turn against my lead :D

OK, 89 is possible but I think sets/straights play like this most of the time. In any case math says I need to GII on the turn.
 
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micromoi

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why only a call on the flop u r the preflop agresser and someone leading to u u must raise so u can get informations if he has 67. on the turn the 9 improves u but change nothing for the others players hands so without more infos u did fire for value but i dont that much of value out there, u get called that will makes u worry about the 67, i will fold the river.
 
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