$5 NLHE Full Ring: Semi-thin value on the river?

HAND 1: VILLAIN 14/9/1.5

Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($3.81)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($6.12)
MP - MP ($15.04)
CO - CO ($5.00)
BTN - BTN ($5.73)
SB - Hero ($5.00)
BB - BB ($5.72)

Preflop: ($0.07, 7 players) Hero is SB with Qh Ac
2 folds, MP calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, BB calls $0.20, MP calls $0.20

Flop: Ts Ah 4s ($0.75, 3 players - MP: $14.79, Hero: $4.75, BB: $5.47)
Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50

Turn: 7h ($2.25, 3 players - MP: $14.29, Hero: $4.25, BB: $4.97)
Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50, 1 fold

River: 2c ($5.25, 2 players - Hero: $2.75, BB: $3.47)
Hero ?


HAND 2: VILLAIN 17/12/3

Stacks:
UTG - Hero ($5.00)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($6.53)
MP - MP ($5.00)
MP2 - MP2 ($7.29)
CO - CO ($5.13)
BTN - BTN ($5.00)
SB - SB ($5.28)
BB - BB ($3.85)

Preflop: ($0.07, 8 players) Hero is UTG with As Ah
Hero raises to $0.20, 5 folds, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: 7s 4d 9s ($0.45, 2 players - SB: $5.08, Hero: $4.80)
SB bets $0.21, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.54

Turn: Jc ($1.95, 2 players - SB: $4.33, Hero: $4.05)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.22, SB calls $1.22

River: 7d ($4.39, 2 players - SB: $3.11, Hero: $2.83)
SB checks, Hero ?

Hand 1: villain looks fairly competent (14/9), so can we expect him to call a shove with a dominated ace? would he call a smaller value bet? or will i only get action from worse and should just check?

Hand 2: after he calls flats an EP open from SB i'm guessing he's mostly set-mining but with a few stronger hands he didn't want to 3 bet: TT-QQ, AQ plus a few weaker aces/broadways/suited connectors. by the river i felt i could narrow down his range to sets, QQ and perhaps a stubborn TT. should i bet and if so, how much? what hands would i be targeting?

OK, Hand 1 is interesting, what is the sample size of BB stats?

If villain is a competent opponent then we would not expect them to flat our pre flop iso raise with less than A10, and we would expect a raise from AK and JJ+, villains flat calling range is really set mining heavy here, was MP limping heaps of hands? And might villain have stats on us where we have iso raised previously? This might lead villain to flat a bit wider if they are sure that MP is never raising and this may allow us to add some small suited connectors into their range.

The flop bet is good, when BB flats I have alarm bells going off, if their range is pocket pairs and suited connectors they should be folding this flop heaps as the suited connectors don't flop any combo draws, villain raises pocket 10s preflop sometimes, making their range 44, some TT and maybe AJ/A10, the other problem is that if villain is observant of what is going on then they should know that you aren't trying to bluff 2 players off of an Ace high board especially when one of them is possibly bad. So your hand is effectively face up.

Saying that I probably bet the turn exactly as you have, hoping MP has Ax or a flush draw and calls. And again when BB flats I'm not happy.

On the river I really don't know what the correct play is, personally I'm checking here and hoping villain isn't bad enough to have chased a flush, because if they did then they missed and if they decide to bluff with their missed draw, I'm probably folding. Based on the stats and the fact that you think that they know what they are doing, they shouldn't have called either streets with a flush draw and so there should be no missed drawing hands in their range for them to bluff with.

I check and fold, but I feel gross about it.

As for your questions, there aren't enough weaker Aces in villains range to go for a value shove as I think AQ and AJ are the only two that are worse than your hand that might call and are in villains range. I don't think that betting small is an option here, if you bet it's a bet for value, and we really should be shoving if we want to bet for value. I mean if you think villain would play A5s like this and call the river bet then sure, shove, but I don't think villain would call you, or even be flatting pre flop with that hand if they are competent. I think villains range is all sets, specifically 44 and I just check fold, again, I don't know if this is bad but being out of position sucks and I want to limit how much I lose when OOP, I like big value bets when I'm in position and villain has a whole bunch of worse hands in their range to call me with.

Hand 2.

Do we have stats on villain?

Good raise pre flop, I think if SB is your average loose passive 5nl villain then there is a bunch more in their range than what you think, this is where stats are really important.

When villain donks the flop I think it is unlikely that they have a set, most villains will be check-raising/ check-calling 100% on a flop like this. I think that this is one pair a lot of the time, especially when you get flatted. If villain did have a set and was the type of villain to donk it, why would they change their aggressive style half way through a hand and flat it? When you have shown them that you like your hand and want to play a big pot? I think villain is more likely to have a flush draw than a set here.

I like the turn bet. Again I think that villains range still has 9x hands in it, and I think villain calls with a flush draw as well.

On the river we shove for value, we now beat some random J9 hands and TT/QQ, villain folds their missed draws anyway and like i said before, I don't think villain has sets in their range from the flop action. Villain does have some 7x hands in their range but we should have thinned most of them out on the turn, there is enough worse hands that call for us to shove and I don't think there are many hands that beat us in their range.

This is only if we have no stats or info on villain. If you are correct in what you think villain has in their range on the river and have reasons to back that up then we are 54% against that range and they probably fold TT so we should check back. I just don't think your average random 5nl player plays sets on the flop like this, and that most 5nl players are bad and we should never check back here against an unknown player.

decent 500 hand sample on first guy. his call PFR was surprisingly high 16% of 200 opportunities. this would indicate he's playing a bunch of speculative hands like suited aces, connectors, broadways etc so his range is wider than it looks. i did check the river for pretty much the same reason you gave and he checked back with A8ss so i guess he decided his equity with TP + flush draw was too good to fold. im wondering if i could have squeezed a bit extra value from the river tho.

second guy i already posted stats for: guy is playing 17/12/3 over 200 hands so i expect him to have quite a pocket pair heavy range when he flats SB (am i correct in assuming that?). anyway i checked river, against a typical fish im shoving every time, but vs this guy i got a little gun shy. he showed TT so i guess he probs would have folded river anyway.

In hand 1 if villains call PFR is that high we can definitely add a bunch of suited Aces and stuff into their range like you suggest. I'm not sure if that is enough to bet the river for value though, what it might do is allow us to check/call the river if we think that they might bluff with enough of the missed flush draws. If villain had say KQs and played the same way, they will be shoving the river a lot and we can call knowing they would check back their mediocre hands but shove their value and bluff hands.

In hand 2 you are correct that villains range is pocket pair heavy, but as I said, I really don't think many villains play a set by donking the flop. Especially when it is so dry. They won't be flatting your raise which screams of an over pair. The 7 on the river makes it even less likely that they have a set. I really think we need to be betting 3 streets for value here.