$5 NLHE Full Ring: Rockets on KQ9 board

$5 NL HE Full Ring: Rockets on KQ9 board

Context: Both players have been at the table for a while. The BB player has played a few hands, usually calling PF and then folding in later streets. The LP player is a rather fishy shortstacker, having lost his stack a couple of times already. I have AA UTG, and go in for a 2.5bb raise. I get two callers.

The flop comes KQ9 rainbow, not the best of flops, but not horrible, as it very well may have given either of these players top pair or some kind of draw. I come in for a cbet after the BB checks, expecting calls or perhaps even some 3bets, which I'm willing to either call or raise. To my surprise, the LP player raises, after which the BB player comes in for a big 4bet.

I am putting either of them on top pair of some kind, possibly a medium pocket pair. I'm thinking I should either flatcall to continue letting them hang themselves, or just raise/shove at them to push off any draws and possibly get a worse hand to call (something like a paired K). What are your thoughts?

Neither of these guys will fold if you raise.

So, are we ahead or behind? I doubt we'll see a pp lower than 99 and doubt BB has TT or JJ - the flop hit your utg range way too hard for BB to re-raise w those. I'd think BB is holding Kx, 2 pair, a set, or JT in order to re-raise, weighted toward at least 2 pair.

Assuming we're continuing, I'm pushing, but I think I'd actually fold here - the only hands we're ahead of that do this are AK, KJ, and KT, and I see those as the minority of his range.

Why 2.5x utg pf? Ferguson advocates raising smaller in EP cuz the other players will know that we're strong in EP, but I don't think that reasoning applies to 5nl?

slycbnew said:

Neither of these guys will fold if you raise.

So, are we ahead or behind? I doubt we'll see a pp lower than 99 and doubt BB has TT or JJ - the flop hit your utg range way too hard for BB to re-raise w those. I'd think BB is holding Kx, 2 pair, a set, or JT in order to re-raise, weighted toward at least 2 pair.

Assuming we're continuing, I'm pushing, but I think I'd actually fold here - the only hands we're ahead of that do this are AK, KJ, and KT, and I see those as the minority of his range.

Why 2.5x utg pf? Ferguson advocates raising smaller in EP cuz the other players will know that we're strong in EP, but I don't think that reasoning applies to 5nl?

Click to expand...

+1 though I don't think the bold part is in villain's thought process. However, BB is facing a cbet and a raise so reraising with less than top pair is pretty lol though I'm sure it is possible.

Summary: If you think BB will stack off with TPNK, then shove, otherwise fold. I'd be inclined to fold but any reads may change this.

Explanation: Comes down to whether or not you think BB will stack off with top pair no kicker as the other guy is short and very likely dead money though I'm sure they do take some equity away from us. If we are going to continue, we're playing for stacks so we need at least around ~40% equity against BB which amounts to approximately the following range:

Board: Qc Kd 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.694% 42.12% 00.58% 39611 542.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 57.306% 56.73% 00.58% 53354 542.50 { QQ+, 99, AKs, K8s+, Q9s, JTs, AKo, K8o+, Q9o, JTo }

If you don't think Q9 is in their range, you can take it out and the equity won't change much. Therefore they need to, at the very minimum, have K8 in their range for a shove to be profitable.

Oh, and why is your cbet so small?

Two days ago I will probably tell you to push.But today my answer is fold my friend.

Thanks very much for the responses. Indeed I ended up shoving (not thinking either player would have been smoothcalling with QQ or KK). I more or less suspected 99 and possibly JT, but actually figured that they'd have just smooth called if their hands were that strong. I figured them for Kx, or potentially a draw with something like AJ or AT and tried to shove them off it. They had Q9 and KQ respectively, and I lost my stack. I will be much more wary of boards with hi cards from now on.

Also a question that nobody has quite been able to answer for me. I keep getting criticized for making small raises when I'm in early position, but it was my understanding that when UTG or UTG+1, we are supposed to make small raises so as to keep the size of the pot small when we are playing the pot OOP. And because our range will mostly be very tight from UTG, there's no need to make it very big; Chris Ferguson recommends 2.5xbb from early, 3xbb from mid, and 3.5-4xbb from late position. Am I wrong to follow his advice on this? Thanks again very much for taking a look at the hand!

T.

There are (at least) two different lines of thought on varying raise sizes by position. Ferguson's is one, raise smaller in EP and bigger in LP, I believe the rationales are:

1. Everyone knows that I'm tighter in EP so should be more reluctant to call because I'm opening in EP;
2. In EP, it'll be cheaper for me to get away from a hand if I get too much action;
3. In LP, I'm playing more speculative hands and everyone knows that too, so I want to discourage the blinds from coming along.

The other line of thought is to open larger in EP and smaller in LP. The rationales are:

1. I'm opening tight in EP, so I want to build pots appropriate to the strength of those hands;
2. I want to discourage multiway action when I'm likely going to be oop postflop;
3. I'm opening wide in LP, so I want to be able to get away from weak hands when I get 3bet, and I can still 4bet or call w position if I'm strong and get 3bet.

Purely imo, Ferguson's advice is not good for microstakes cash games (I often wonder if this is more suited to MTT play than cash), I use the other approach. First, many players at micro do not think about position and do not give credit to utg opens as being strong simply because they're utg. Second, opening 2.5x virtually invites callers and 3bettors and squeezers (the latter two become pretty big concerns at 50nl and up).

You may want to try the latter strategy for a couple of sessions to see how it impacts postflop situations, pot size, pf 3betting, etc. At 5nl, I'd suggest 4x from all positions except CO, BTN, and SB, where you'd use 3x. If it doesn't work for you, you can always dump the thinking - but I think you'll find it'll simplify postflop play in particular quite a bit.

Quick point about this strategy though - I'm assuming you're significantly tighter pf in EP than LP - if not, this may not work for you.

shove b/c it's 5nl and you have AA

Thank you all for your advice! Specifically the careful and detailed explanation of the two schools of thought on sizing raises. It finally clears it up for me why people sometimes criticize my small EP raises. I've been running so horrendously at $5NL this week, that I am more than open to giving a new strategy a shot. I'm excited about trying out a new strategy; I'll let you know how it goes. And yes, I am significantly tighter EP than LP. Is there also another school of thought regarding this particular aspect of play? Thanks again!