$5 NLHE Full Ring: QQ's OOP

E

eggerdy

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PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $5.00 (VPIP: 15.86, PFR: 12.83, 3Bet Preflop: 3.66, hands: 1,137)
Hero (UTG+1): $5.44
MP: $3.67 (VPIP: 34.43, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
CO: $5.44 (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
BTN: $5.50 (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: $8.85 (VPIP: 27.87, PFR: 6.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 124)
BB: $5.12 (VPIP: 15.02, PFR: 12.88, 3Bet Preflop: 1.18, Hands: 235)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, CO calls $0.20, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.47, 2 players) 3 8 9
Hero bets $0.33, CO raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.57

Turn: ($2.27, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero?

Villain was at a few of my tables and I'd noticed he was check/raising, and raising my c-bets on almost every flop. The one time I called him down he had TPTK.

Are there enough draws in his range to call down here, or should I fold being OOP?

Thanks
 
M

MinhANguyen

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Call him down unless he bombs the river super big. He should not be raising the flop with a 9, although some fish do that to see where they are at. And because the 9 comes on the turn, it's less likely he has a 9, and the number of set combos are reduced significantly.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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What Minh said, enough draws here and it seems like villain overvalues TPTK and probably 1010 and JJ in this spot too.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I fold the flop here. Villain has the profile of a weak-passive, which generally don't get too out of line postflop. Even if he has a draw, he likely has a decent number of outs. So unless his stats are like 0/4 fold to c-bet so far, I just let him have this one.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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If villain is raising TPTK on flops then his range kind of looks like this.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9h8d3s
equity Win Tie
MP2 41.29% 41.29% 0.00% { JJ-88, 33, A9s, JTs, 98s, 76s, JTo, 98o }
MP3 58.71% 58.71% 0.00% { QsQc }


We only need ~25% equity to call flop and we have much more then that. It is super nitty to fold here.

If you take bluffs out of his range on turn we are a slight dog with only ~45% but he bet so small it is still hard to fold.
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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If villain is raising TPTK on flops then his range kind of looks like this.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9h8d3s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.29% 41.29% 0.00% { JJ-88, 33, A9s, JTs, 98s, 76s, JTo, 98o }
MP3 58.71% 58.71% 0.00% { QsQc }


We only need ~25% equity to call flop and we have much more then that. It is super nitty to fold here.

If you take bluffs out of his range on turn we are a slight dog with only ~45% but he bet so small it is still hard to fold.
1) What are we drawing to? Maybe pairing the board? A blank? All in equity doesn't matter on the flop bro. There are very few turn cards that will make me want to call another bet.

2) I'm not sure a 30/15 raises his straight draws or 9x here. I suppose we do have a blocker against JT. In spots where a passive villain raises the flop, I generally just invoke the fuzz rule and move on.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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1) What are we drawing to? Maybe pairing the board? A blank? All in equity doesn't matter on the flop bro. There are very few turn cards that will make me want to call another bet.

2) I'm not sure a 30/15 raises his straight draws or 9x here. I suppose we do have a blocker against JT. In spots where a passive villain raises the flop, I generally just invoke the fuzz rule and move on.

He said villain has raised flops often and has shown down TPTK after doing so. We are not drawing to anything, we are ahead of their range. If you fold an over pair on these flops against someone that raises TPTK here, your'e going to be losing money. Equity against his range does matter. Pot odds man.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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He said villain has raised flops often and has shown down TPTK after doing so. We are not drawing to anything, we are ahead of their range. If you fold an over pair on these flops against someone that raises TPTK here, your'e going to be losing money. Equity against his range does matter. Pot odds man.

Didn't see the initial read that he raised light. You should probably read the Fuzz Rule article though, without a read this seems like a spot that costs us money. Your "pot odds" don't factor in the true price of a showdown, which is still 2 bets away.

As played, I probably just let him bluff and call down.
 
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MinhANguyen

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Fuzz Rule shouldn't apply when you start playing more aggressive players (25NL Zone+ & maybe regular 100NL+?) and against better players. You need to call down and be able to bluff-catch in these spots, even readless. People will be playing back at you with bluff raises with gutshots, middle and bottom pair, OESD, and even air. And a lot of times, they like bluffing if the board pairs, but in reality, it makes their perceived range weaker. It cuts down on their set combos, and they really shouldn't be raising with TP in the first place. Most people would call down/pot control.

Some examples from 25NL Zone. I bluff-catched with QQ on a semi-wet board after I got raised on the flop and got bet into when the J paired the board on the turn once in Zone; he had K high/gutshot. Some other time I almost folded aces on the turn when I got raised huge on the flop and bombed super big on the turn. The turn paired the ten on board, and it seemed more likely he was on a draw, trying to get me off my hand with a huge bet than bet for value. Like why would you ever bomb 85% PSB with so little going into the river with a FH/the nuts? We probably had like less than a 1/2 PSB OTR if I just called. That's just ridiculous. Ended up x/jamming, and ofc he hit his straight OTR haha.

And a 29/14 is not that passive. I would be more worried if it were something like 80/2. Also OP mentioned that he's had a lot of history with him presumably bluff-raising, and raising with TP type of hands.

People will generally give their hand strength away on the turn once they raise you on the flop. If they do some dumb 1/2-3/5 PSB, they were probably just messing around with TP/weak overpair. If they start bombing it when a complete blank comes, they probably have it. And if the board pairs and they start bombing, I'm probably GII if the board texture could seem like they're FOS. It wouldn't make sense to bomb super big "for value" when the board pairs, as we have a capped range calling a flop raise.
 
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IPlay

IPlay

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Didn't see the initial read that he raised light. You should probably read the Fuzz Rule article though, without a read this seems like a spot that costs us money. Your "pot odds" don't factor in the true price of a showdown, which is still 2 bets away.

As played, I probably just let him bluff and call down.

Yeah, pretty interesting article and I agree it 100% applies to live games, always fold an overpair if raised on the flop. Online though, there are many exceptions to that rule(Still folding pretty often though). I'll have to dig in my database tomorrow and see if this is a leak for me. Thanks for the concept.
 
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