$5 NLHE Full Ring: QQ UTG against fish

Button ($4.95)
SB ($16.14)
Hero (BB) ($4.52)
UTG ($5.88)
MP1 ($4.86)
MP2 ($5.88)
CO ($5.51)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q , Q - Incorrect, I am UTG, relative positions are OK.

Hero bets $0.20, UTG calls $0.20, 5 folds

Flop: ($0.47) J , 7 , 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, UTG calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.17) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

River: ($2.37) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Total pot: $2.37 | Rake: $0.11

Villain is 29 / 14 / 3.7% 3bet over 800 hands where he is bleeding money at -50 bb/100 clip. AF = 1.9 (40%). I have him marked as a big fish.

Notes:
- Minibet = bluff
- Minraise preflop = QQ
- Raise 4x UTG and cbet 2/3 pot on the flop = AA

1. Guess his holding (don't peek!)?
2. Line check? I check river to induce a bet and avoid chkraise AI if he has it.
3. How big a bet can I call on the river?

Results below:

Bet bigger on the turn (at least .90).

Edit: Also I renamed your thread. Please make them more descriptive of the actual hand and not BB sounding if you want them to stay in the HA forum.

I wasn't sure what he could have, the board hits his range well (or so I thought )... he might in fact already have me beat.

So I decided to bet less to get him to call with anything while bigger bets could possibly fold out weaker stuff and I only get to the river against made hands (2 pairs are possible, straights too) and there are a LOT of draws out there (even turn 5 adds some more). Idea was to bet the river if draws whiff for some thin value, he will call with one pair hands.

Edit: What is "BB sounding"? Ahh you mean "bad beat" that wasn't the intent really, besides for me this is just another day in 5NL. Of course putting these people on reasonable ranges is an exercise in futility but I have postulated that long ago. I mean, 29% VPIP over 800 hands should be relatively clear, no?

The thing is that you should be betting the turn bigger because he still calls with all those draws and rarely folds all the one pair hands either. Basically you just make more money by betting bigger there while getting called by the almost the exact same range.

Problem is that many times I did that and ended up inflating the pot with my puny one pair hand and that ended up horribly. I just hate that board since it really smacks what he should have in the hand.

Anyway, lets say I bet larger and the river whiffs. What next? Check call or bet call or bet fold?

Against this guy probably I'd probably just go bet/fold all 3 streets because he's pretty likely to call all the way with Jx.

Fold even to a minraise? I don't see him bluffing much but I gotta ask. Not like he is reliable as far as hand strengths go.

Yeah, even to a minraise on any street.

Thought so.

In my line, after I check the river, do I call a small bet (possible Jx) or is the board simply too good for his presumed range (ignore the actual hand he has)? I planned to call something small, lets say up to 1/4 pot or so.

I guess I'd probably call up to ~$1 if I played the hand like you did, but honestly, I don't think I ever would.

1. Guess his holding (don't peek!)?

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Jx, any FD that hits a 30% range (and probably some weaker), some middling PPs, maybe QQ, maybe some 2nd pairs, and a faint/implausible possibility of KK -- the guy's obviously terrible. A small majority of his range is probably pairs that you beat or even dominate.

2. Line check? I check river to induce a bet and avoid chkraise AI if he has it.

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Not a horrible line if you think he bets worse, but there's not a ton of worse that a station would bet. I assume hands that you beat just check back and most hands that beat you bet (I would assume a station's standard betting/raising range there might be like J8/98/88 and flushes). Still that's kind of a marginal spot and if you're beat you lose less by checking than betting (lately I've developed a theory that rake concerns make taking the smallest-pot approach to any near-0 EV situation necessary) so WP I guess.

I would only say bet bigger on every street. He'll call bombs with way worse, I assure you.

3. How big a bet can I call on the river?

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uhh... I dunno, that depends on whether he EVER bets worse. If he bets with any top pair at all (even AJ) then anything short of pot is fine. If he never does you can exploitatively fold to any bet size that isn't a post oak (you say he's capable of those). It's really up to you.

...ok I was NOT expecting him to have 85. Make a note he peels every street with bottom pair and air and then checks back 2 pair, and next time just take him to value town with any top pair and decent second pairs. He's a bloody ATM.

I actually went to Poker Stove and tried plugging any reasonable 29% range to see if I can ever guess his hand. Of course not.

Obviously I didn't take into consideration that it was Friday and it rained yesterday and the wind was blowing from the North East. Silly me.

LD1977 said:

I actually went to Poker Stove and tried plugging any reasonable 29% range to see if I can ever guess his hand.

Click to expand...

I didn't need to. Lowest hand in a standard 29% range is 98o.