$5 NLHE Full Ring: QQ river vs tight opponent

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: $6.09 (VPIP: 13.73, PFR: 7.84, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, hands: 51)
Hero (UTG): $5.61


SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q♦ Q♥

Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls $0.20, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.47, 2 players) 4♦ 3♦ 2♣
Hero bets $0.33, MP+2 calls $0.33

Turn: ($1.13, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets $0.81, MP+2 calls $0.81

River: ($2.75, 2 players) 8♦
Hero ???

Villain has a WTSD% of 20% and an AF of 2.0

Should I bet/call or check/call this river versus this opponent type? How much should I bet, and how much should I be willing to call?

Cheers

Oops! I've mistakenly made a double post. Can mods delete? Sorry.

He may have hit this flop and is just waiting for all their chips. I know I'm going to talk all that you see, but see how hands may have hit this flop, then the river when you hit the flush card increases the chances of you are considerably behind. Honestly, how I wanted to put all my chips here. So I think just a check / call or check / fold depending on how he react to check.

eggerdy said:

Oops! I've mistakenly made a double post. Can mods delete? Sorry.

Click to expand...

it's just you report by clicking on the triangle side with exclamation mark and the red edges, writing because you want excluded.

es530 said:

it's just you report by clicking on the triangle side with exclamation mark and the red edges, writing because you want excluded.

Click to expand...

Done. Thanks.

If he is a tight player and is calling your bets, he has a strong hand, for sure. Looks like he has a over pair or hit a set. If he doesn’t has a set, he problaby has a 7 or 88+ in his hands. But if he hited the set, it’s expected a raise for him. So, you only lose for KK AA.

I would bet 1,60. If the villain shoves, fold.

Villain can easily have worse hands that will call a bet here, but will check behind if checked to(9s, 10s, Js). He shouldn't have a flush given your turn sizing and his tight image. Sets are a possibility, so we definitely should not be bet/calling a raise.

Piece it all together and I would bet/fold the river. Around half pot is probably good.

Looks like bet/fold around 1/2 pot is the consensus. I think it's the play I prefer as it gets value from some of the overpairs he could be calling with, and if he does raise I know I'm probably beat.

Thanks everyone for the feedback.

If ur scared check call river

Some will argue that you should just get it in and so be it