$5 NLHE Full Ring: QQ on paired board

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eggerdy

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PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): $5.00
MP+1: $4.82 (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 18.55, 3Bet Preflop: 2.04, hands: 127)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, MP+1 raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.07, 2 players) J 5 J
Hero checks, MP+1 bets $0.77, Hero???

The villain is quite loose preflop but his 3-betting percentage isn't too crazy, so I think his range is pretty tight here. He has an aggression factor of 5.

What's the best line to take in these spots?

Thanks
 
Delvuter

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I say standard 1/2 pot c-bet on flop. The hands that smash us that he isn't folding are 5's, Jx, J's+. There are no hands that beat us that he might fold. Hands we beat that he might call are AK, AQ, AT. Of course he is loose so maybe Ax. He also could be on a flush draw. It seems it is a complete gamble to shove, re-raise or call. His stats though like you mentioned show he doesn't 3-bet much so it leans toward him smashing us, but he is loose. A re-raise seems to be a really good option. A shove will only be called by the hands that smash us. A re-raise is the only way to win the pot outright and gain info. Calling you learn nothing. So I say re-raise, which looks like a c/r so we show lots of strength. If he re-raises over the top of you I have no idea what to do! I actually have no clue what to do on the turn if he calls either. I just wanted to get in this topic cause Q's empty my wallet.
 
Figaroo2

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5 is a very high aggression factor and would be a major factor in how I'd be thinking about this hand.
As you point out though his 3bet % is only just over 2 which is QQ KK AA and AK. QQ against this range is 40% preflop and we will be out of position, not an enticing spot. I don't think 4 betting against this range is a good option here so a call looks right.
It is realistic to think however that he might be a bit wider 3betting as he is so aggro. He has 127 hands which isn't anywhere near enough to cement him to QQ+, he might just have a poor run of cards or just not got his good hands in the correct positions to 3 bet.
I also though don't like this odd sized min 3bet which in my experience at these stakes is AA and KK just pot sweetening a bit and hoping not to chase off too many hands.
In the worst case realistically we are facing is 16 combos of AK and 12 combos of KK AA.
So 40% the time we have 12% equity and the other 60% when he has AK and only has 12 outs we have 75% equity.
It's really a simple maths problem.
My equity calc against his strongest range shows us with 47% equity after the flop. Clearly a bit more than that if we start widening his 3bet range to include TT+ and say AQs when we move up to about 55%
So now the flop is done and decent for QQ its still little more than a flip.
Against a normal player someone with AK might slow down on the turn but I don't think a guy with an AF of 5 will, I'd be expecting him to fire 3 barrels. It's a tough spot for sure so what can we do?
We have the option to raise now on the flop, to call or to fold.
Raising on the flop is likely to fold out everything we beat and we get called by what beats us. This gives us a chance to withdraw from the hand if we get called and not get stacked. The bad part of raising the flop is we stop him from barreling his AK, TT AQs which if they miss then we stack him.If we decide to call him down we just have to accept that just under half the time we are going to lose our stack to AA KK. There is the saviour of being able to fold if an A or K arrive on the flop or turn.
The 3rd option was to fold, this is clearly wrong after this flop. If we were going to fold it should have been preflop which is too nitty to even contemplate.
My play...call him down, give him the chance to 3 barrel the hands that are worse than ours and folding if an ace or king hit turn or river. He has was a tight or more passive player, we can more happily fold if he bets the turn or river for value.
Look at it his way if you have QQ and he has KK or AA you are supposed to lose money when the flop has undercards.
 
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vanya384

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Fold. On flop hero should some bet, if opponent raise - fold, if call, on turn continue betting.
 
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eggerdy

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A re-raise is the only way to win the pot outright and gain info. Calling you learn nothing. So I say re-raise, which looks like a c/r so we show lots of strength. If he re-raises over the top of you I have no idea what to do!

I can see how re-raising is a good option. He's unlikely to re-raise/shove without at least an overpair, so if he does I can lay my hand down.


I actually have no clue what to do on the turn if he calls either. I just wanted to get in this topic cause Q's empty my wallet.

I hear you. I don't seem to play QQ's too well either, especially OOP.

My play...call him down, give him the chance to 3 barrel the hands that are worse than ours and folding if an ace or king hit turn or river. He has was a tight or more passive player, we can more happily fold if he bets the turn or river for value

I think this is the line I prefer, given the reasons you state and his aggression factor. I think this player is definitely capable of bluffing with AK in a 3-bet pot.

Look at it his way if you have QQ and he has KK or AA you are supposed to lose money when the flop has undercards.

This is something I need to work on. I've recently moved up, and after 9000 or so hands, I've noticed that my WTSD% is a fair bit lower than it was at NL2. BTW thanks for such a detailed reply I found it really helpful.

Thanks again everyone for the replies.
 
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