$5 NLHE Full Ring: QQ OOP flop a 4-flush, Villian shoves!

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($5.36)
MP2 ($2.78)
CO ($2.46) this guy is a pretty regular 18/9
Button ($4.63)
Hero (SB) ($6.33)
BB ($5.22)
UTG ($3.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q , Q
3 folds, CO calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.25, 1 fold, CO calls $0.20

OOP I feel a slightly larger bet is in order.

Flop: ($0.55) 6 , 8 , 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, CO raises to $2.21 (All-In)

Hero to act...

Perhaps I should have raised 40c with the drawy board. I am getting 1.67:1 on the call. Surely he is only ahead of me with AA and KK and then I still have about 25% equity but if one of those has a heart I think I might be drawing dead!

What would you do?

Call. He doesn't have AA/KK because he would have limp/raised with those hands if he ever limps them from the CO at all.

Even against a range of 66-TT (sets, GS, weak FDs), A6-ATo with a heart, and 97 you're slightly better the 53%. Widen his range to include TP hands without a FD or with the King high FD and you're doing even better.

odds against flopping a flush holding 2 suited cards is like 99:1 so it's unlikely and I doubt he shoves it if he does flop it.

WVHillbilly said:

Odds against flopping a flush holding 2 suited cards is like 99:1 so it's unlikely and I doubt he shoves it if he does flop it.

Click to expand...

I thought it was more like 110:1 against but yeah... not very likely.
I too thought he would only shove a flopped flush if it was a weak one but in his calling range on the CO most flushes would be good.

Well anyway I called ...c'est la vie!

Turn: ($4.97) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($4.97) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $4.97 | Rake: $0.24

Results below:
Hero had Q

, Q

(flush, Ace high).
CO had J

, K

(flush, Ace high).
Outcome: CO won $4.73

Doesn't matter what he had, the call was correct. Unless you are a super user we play against ranges, not hands. Sometimes it can be tough to see when we get it in drawing dead and the pot's getting shipped the other way. Against his likely range of hands, your call was correct though and that's what is important.

Yes I completely agree though I must say that 95% of my tilt stems form forgetting this fundamental fact. I should pin to my monitor...

"Whether you win or lose any individual hand is 99.999% irrelivent as long as you made the right decision taking all the information that was available to you at the time"

I know that as long as your BRM is in order and you have an edge over the level you play there is no reason to check the "amount won" column on your poker tracker every dozen hands because whether its red or green, high or low it has no bearing on how you should play the remainder of your session.
I guess it can serve as an ego boost but we know that the correct play doesnt always lead to profit in the short term. I am SURE I play worse when my BB/100 for the session drops below my average or dares to go negative!

It just sucks that you cannot start your HUD without loading up PT3!

EDIT:

What's a super user?

A super-user is someone who can see everyone's hole cards, as in the Absolute/UB scandal. It was just my way of saying unless you can see his cards you're playing against a range.

WVHillbilly said:

Odds against flopping a flush holding 2 suited cards is like 99:1

Click to expand...

Err, off by almost 20% here. I usually round out the odds to 120:1, which is more accurate:

Flopping a flush
ODDS: 117.79 to 1. CHANCES: 1 in 118.79. PERCENT: 0.84%.
MATH: (50/11)*(49/10)*(48/9)
http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

These numbers are confirmed at other odds sites...

Makwa said:

Err, off by almost 20% here. I usually round out the odds to 120:1, which is more accurate:

Flopping a flush
ODDS: 117.79 to 1. CHANCES: 1 in 118.79. PERCENT: 0.84%.
MATH: (50/11)*(49/10)*(48/9)
http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

These numbers are confirmed at other odds sites...

Click to expand...

Ok. Doesn't matter much either way. The odds are slim and well since the flop has already come h h h it means that his chances of having the flopped flush are much greater anyway. If he plays any 2 suited cards he's probably got it here like 20% of the time (less than 25% because we hold a heart and he also plays pairs and unsuited connectors).