$5 NLHE Full Ring: QQ, easy fold pre?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/11/4

Only 90 hands on villain, 3bet 0% (0/28) fold to 3bet 66% (2/3).

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
BB: $3.95
UTG: $9.21
Hero (UTG+1): $5.00
MP: $3.40
CO: $2.80
BTN: $5.90
SB: $4.88
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has Q:heart: Q:spade:
UTG calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.23, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.21, fold, UTG raises to $0.70, Hero???

Bit rusty on FR strat so this may be very obvious to some.

Just noticed the 3bet stats on doing review so might have answered my own question but can we fold this pre at 5nl? What sort of line would you think is best here, flatting the 3bet and then seeing how the flop comes? That seems quite weak to me, by not 4betting/getting it in are we not already admitting that we think we're beat and really set-mining, but then we havent got the odds.

I tanked this because I didnt really like shoving (only called by better imo) but didnt like flatting either as it seems weak. Thoughts??

Even if you believe you're beat, you have implied odds to set mine (if only barely) so I'm at least calling here in position.

Are there any metagame details you can provide? Have you been raising this guy light to isolate, for example?

Nah no meta-game stuff, not got into any spots with him really and cant remember iso'ing him tons so he has no reason to think im out of line, dont know what my stats were like at the time as i am at work but will update later with my own stats.

Re: odds, we have to call a 47c bet, leaving us with $4.77 effective stack for us to win, this isn't enough for me to call set-mining, i like it better when villain has about 15x to make up for times I hit and don't stack him.

Well look if you think his 3-bet can only be KK+ and maybe AK, just flat and set mine. You do have the odds because you will stack him off when you hit a set, all the time. (I guess not when he has KK and the board is AQx)

But you have to have the discipline to fold on a 722 flop.

ComplexPlaya said:

But you have to have the discipline to fold on a 722 flop.

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I think this is my problem, i shoved here (terrible play i know) and got called by AA obv, not a bbv thread though as at the time i was actually thinking i was beat, the limp/3bet looked strong, but didnt want to fold. Like i said, i didnt like to flat it and set-mine but i didnt want to shove either.... and i didnt want to fold!

In review i thought that call>fold>shove is the best order of action but wasnt sure if flatting it was too weak.

Apparently it wasnt though, just need to work on my discipline and not spaz out and shove when i get a hard decision to make!

Thanks all

You DO have the odds to set mine, if he only has AA or KK. Because you will stack him every time and don't need 15x or something. Do you think he will sometimes fold AA/KK with a Q on board? AK looks unlikely for a limp/3bet hand.

Call pre in position and control pot see what happens prob best plan. Reraising pre is prob not a good plan.Hope undercards come and your able to get to showdown cheap.

ComplexPlaya said:

You DO have the odds to set mine, if he only has AA or KK. Because you will stack him every time and don't need 15x or something. Do you think he will sometimes fold AA/KK with a Q on board? AK looks unlikely for a limp/3bet hand.

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No you won't stack him every time even if he has only KK+. Sometimes you'll get set over set. Sometimes an Ace will fall and he'll fold KK. Calling to set mine here is very close but don't make the mistake of thinking you'll win a stack every time you hit your set. Calling here strictly to set mine is likely very close to 0 EV. Shoving on the other hand is almost certainly profitable if AK is in his range (and it is).

You think your ahead of him hes 22/11 and he reraised you so you would push allin pre WV ??? Thats a +Ev move ?

WVHillbilly said:

No you won't stack him every time even if he has only KK+. Sometimes you'll get set over set. Sometimes an Ace will fall and he'll fold KK. Calling to set mine here is very close but don't make the mistake of thinking you'll win a stack every time you hit your set. Calling here strictly to set mine is likely very close to 0 EV. Shoving on the other hand is almost certainly profitable if AK is in his range (and it is).

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Read the results already but...

Can't we assume that a limp/re-raise from UTG by a Villain we haven't seen 3bet yet to be AA/KK?

WVHillbilly said:

No you won't stack him every time even if he has only KK+. Sometimes you'll get set over set. Sometimes an Ace will fall and he'll fold KK. Calling to set mine here is very close but don't make the mistake of thinking you'll win a stack every time you hit your set. Calling here strictly to set mine is likely very close to 0 EV. Shoving on the other hand is almost certainly profitable if AK is in his range (and it is).

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I think you're right that set mining is more or less EV neutral, but he has AK pretty much never. If there were metagame factors involved, I can easily see 66-JJ in his range, but OP's take on the game has diminished that possibility substantially.

Double-A said:

Read the results already but...

Can't we assume that a limp/re-raise from UTG by a Villain we haven't seen 3bet yet to be AA/KK?

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Sorry misread the action. Limp/reraise UTG is basically never AK (usually not KK either). Since calling and folding are probably about the same it's just a matter of if you love swings or not.