re: Poker & $5 NLHE Full Ring: Puzzling HUGE overshove on the flop by villain.
Originally Posted by John A
You just don't know with zoom, but for $3 and some equity, I'd call.
John, can you clarify this last sentence? While $3 in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of money, we don't make our determination based on that ever. We have to look at the context of the pot size, right?
How often do I have to be right here to make this a winning play? (Other questions that come to mind: Why is this player shoving into such a dry board? Why did pre-flop raiser check the dry flop?)
Mainly, the guy is spazzing here. If he has the best hand, why make this move? If he has nothing, why shove so much? None of it makes sense. And while I think it's possible he's got nothing, I think it skews (even if just a bit) towards players with something big that are hoping you will spazz and call.
For such a large percentage of my stack, when I don't have the nuts, the second nuts, or even the third nuts (him having a set here is very likely given his call PF), I'm folding here all the time (with no knowledge of this player) and saving my money for a better spot.