$5 NLHE Full Ring: The Monster draw always fails me.

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/10/2

Board: 8d 9d As

equity Hand Range
51.2% [ 6d7d ] Me
37.1% [ 8c9h ]
11.6% [ AcQc ]

I bet 3/4 pot on the flop and both my relatively tight opponents shoved all in and I folded
I knew my equity is around 50% without having to check so why can't I get my money in?
Board ran out 9s 2s so I would have lost.
I know the answer its due to the fact I've had the monster draw about 4 times in the last few months and lost them all.
Interesting hand though in terms of equity though
 
RodneyC86

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/10/2

Board: 8d 9d As

Equity Hand Range
51.2% [ 6d7d ] Me
37.1% [ 8c9h ]
11.6% [ AcQc ]

I bet 3/4 pot on the flop and both my relatively tight opponents shoved all in and I folded
I knew my equity is around 50% without having to check so why can't I get my money in?
Board ran out 9s 2s so I would have lost.
I know the answer its due to the fact I've had the monster draw about 4 times in the last few months and lost them all.
Interesting hand though in terms of equity though

Super bad fold then.... You are winning half the time or at least very close to half against typical shoving ranges here. and you won't go all in for a chance to triple up?

Fail



S
 
Mr Sandbag

Mr Sandbag

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Horrible fold. Doesn't even matter if your opponent is the biggest nit in the world who only bets the nuts. You have great odds to draw out and it'd be extremely profitable to get your money in.
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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This would have been my 5th loss in a row with this draw. Now I know the coin is due to fall my way i promise to shove next time :)
 
RodneyC86

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This would have been my 5th loss in a row with this draw. Now I know the coin is due to fall my way i promise to shove next time :)

Nothing is 'due' ever. It's gambler's fallacy. You may well lose all of the next 5 times again.

You just got to know you're putting your money in the best you can.

This is a basic psychology of poker to master. Better get to it.
 
J

jimmylytle2

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I never chase a straight when someone could be chasing a flush. You were chasing both the straight and the flush. I probably would have called and lost this hand, also.
 
H

Henreiman

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Silly silly silly. Go post in BBV, not in hand analysis. You play the odds and sometimes the odds don't fall in your favor, such is life
 
blueskies

blueskies

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Yes in a 3 way pot get it all in with a str flush draw. If Lady Luck has it in for ya that day, you're gonna lose but you gotta keep making +EV decisions. That situation is a no-brainer all-in call.

Although in hindsight you "would" have lost, at decision time you cannot know that.
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Failed me again tonight.....i did promise to push 5c 10c nlh

Me 8c7c in sb, raise 3bb
villian Kh 2s in bb, call

flop 9c kc 10s

I raise fullpot, he three bets, i shove, he calls!!?
equity me 56% him 43%
turn Kd river 3s
villian wins
6th loss in a row now!!
 
blueskies

blueskies

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On a flop like that, there's a chance you are at the idiot end of a straight, meaning you've gotta hit your flush.

Since he called you pre, and threebet you, that's pretty strong, so you likely don't have 15 clean outs. Situation like this, I might be content to dial down the aggression.

Chances are, the flop hit the villain big and he won't fold even if a flush completes.

How I play this hand would be villain-dependent. Seeing how this guy played, I'd say you have little fold equity vs. this guy so I would dial it down a tick. In other words, I'd be content to chck/call assuming the flop hit the villain pretty solidly and he's not gonna fold even if a third club falls.

PS, I know he called you with garbage. My post assumes you dunno his holding or the end result.
 
dresturn2

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Equity is all that matters sir...load up your charts and if your running +EV and still losing then who cares cause you know you are just unlucky
 
dresturn2

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after actually reading this post i am very disapointed.....all the math said get em in but you were too scared of losing to make right play
 
Aces2w1n

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888 Poker - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: $6.87 (VPIP: 26.45, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 159)
UTG: $0.61 (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
MP: $3.96 (VPIP: 40.70, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 1.06, Hands: 595)
CO: $6.00 (VPIP: 44.34, PFR: 11.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 107)
Hero (BTN): $4.75
SB: $1.96 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has 4:diamond: 6:diamond:
UTG raises to $0.08, MP calls $0.08, fold, Hero calls $0.08, fold, fold
Flop: ($0.30, 3 players) Q:diamond: 3:diamond: 5:spade:
UTG bets $0.53, MP raises to $1.06, Hero raises to $4.67, MP calls $2.82
Turn: ($8.59, 3 players) 8:heart:
River: ($8.59, 3 players) T:diamond:
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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I think all I ended up against was KJc was UTG and QTc MP was what was raising and called my shove LOLs :) I guess KJ was only short stacked trying to steal the pot :)
 
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