$5 NLHE Full Ring: Monster draw on the flop vs a raise, stack off or fold?

LD1977

LD1977

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Total posts
3,091
Chips
0
SB ($4.99)
BB ($3.65)
UTG ($6.22)
UTG+1 ($5.53)
MP1 ($4.05)
MP2 ($11.03)
Hero (CO) ($6.15)
Button ($2.98)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K
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, Q
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UTG checks, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, 4 folds, MP2 calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.62) 6
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, J
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, 10
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(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.48, MP2 raises to $2.08, Hero raises to $5.90 (All-In), MP2 calls $3.82

Turn: ($12.42) K
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(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($12.42) 3
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(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $12.42 | Rake: $0.62

This the MP1 from: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/5-nlhe-full-ring-qq-3-a-226068/

Notes:
- Always tries reverse float.
- Never folds a PP.

So, the flop is very sexy but then I get raised and I decide to go for it.

Now that I played with the numbers I see that against a set I am behind in equity (40% for me) or of course he might have a nut FD so about half of my outs are possibly iffy.

So, if we assume he only does it with sets, what is correct? There is money in the pot so just go for it, right?

Results below:
MP2 had J
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, J
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(three of a kind, Jacks).
Hero had K
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, Q
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(one pair, Kings).
Outcome: MP2 won $11.82

This guy now has a positive win rate thanks to my efforts. I am not a happy bunny.
 
Last edited:
Aleksei

Aleksei

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Total posts
1,527
Chips
0
You have like 50/50 at worst here I think. MAAAAAYBE something like 45/55. Based on pot odds you can't really fold this ever, and calling is bad due to the risk of bricking a street.

So, GII.
 
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