$5 NLHE Full Ring: Middle set on river, two villains, poss straight/wet board ($5NL micros)

$5 NLHE Full Ring: Middle set on river, two villains, poss straight/wet board ($5NL micros)

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/13/2.3

I have pocket J's in EP, I 3bet preflop, check the flop (probably unwisely), bet the turn, and get put in an awkward situation when I hit a set on the river vs. 2 villains but possible straights appear. The only reads are on the UTG: 21/13/2.3 and I had not seen him play draws aggressively. Any thoughts?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.04)
BB ($3.52)
UTG ($8.61)
Hero ($5.30)
UTG+2 ($7.89)
MP1 ($5)
CO ($15.16)
BTN ($3.36)

Dealt to Hero J J

UTG raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.55, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.55, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.40

FLOP ($1.72) T Q 8

UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

TURN ($1.72) T Q 8 2

UTG checks, Hero bets $1.30, BTN calls $1.30, UTG calls $1.30

RIVER ($5.62) T Q 8 2 J

UTG bets $2.15
Hero...?

13% PRRange Hmmm Tuff, Pots now at $7.77 ????
Why did you bet the turn in a Mutiway pot???

ALL IN CLUBS said:

View attachment 35219

13% PRRange Hmmm Tuff, Pots now at $7.77 ????
Why did you bet the turn in a Mutiway pot???

Click to expand...

Just because his PFR is 13 doesn't mean that we always put him on a 13% range. In this situation villain raised UTG so if villain is at all positionally aware we need to tighten this up. When he calls a 3 bet we can make it a little tighter as well although a lot of 5NL players will think that since it is a multiway pot they now have to call for value. So I think in this situation we could easily bring UTG's range down to 5 or 6%, something like 99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+.

As for the hand there is so much on this flop that hits villains I don't think betting is a great idea. Most hands that call a bet here are either ahead or at least have very good equity against us and I think betting is just going to bloat the pot while we are oop with a marginal hand.

As played I think we can call the river bet as we are actually favourites against a range of TT+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+

Your totally right that he would not call the raise oop without a really strong hand. Thanks for pointing that out.

No Brainer said:

Just because his PFR is 13 doesn't mean that we always put him on a 13% range. In this situation villain raised UTG so if villain is at all positionally aware we need to tighten this up. When he calls a 3 bet we can make it a little tighter as well although a lot of 5NL players will think that since it is a multiway pot they now have to call for value. So I think in this situation we could easily bring UTG's range down to 5 or 6%, something like 99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+.

As for the hand there is so much on this flop that hits villains I don't think betting is a great idea. Most hands that call a bet here are either ahead or at least have very good equity against us and I think betting is just going to bloat the pot while we are oop with a marginal hand.

As played I think we can call the river bet as we are actually favourites against a range of TT+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+

Click to expand...

ALL IN CLUBS said:

Your totally right that he might not call the raise oop without a really strong hand. Thanks for pointing that out.

Click to expand...

fyp

I am just assuming that he is positionally aware...

Judging by the stats given he may actually be a bit of a looser calling station and may not know the first thing about position. Without more info we can't tell...

ALL IN CLUBS said:

13% PRRange Hmmm Tuff, Pots now at $7.77 ????
Why did you bet the turn in a Mutiway pot???

Click to expand...

I checked the flop bc there were overcards and it was multiway on a drawy board. I was mostly afraid of the UTG who easily could have had a Q. But when everyone checked on the F and then UTG checked the T, I had to put in a good sized bet for value and to thin the herd.

Am I ok in this line of thinking?

No Brainer said:

Just because his PFR is 13 doesn't mean that we always put him on a 13% range. In this situation villain raised UTG so if villain is at all positionally aware we need to tighten this up. When he calls a 3 bet we can make it a little tighter as well although a lot of 5NL players will think that since it is a multiway pot they now have to call for value. So I think in this situation we could easily bring UTG's range down to 5 or 6%, something like 99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I was thinking AQ or maybe even KK, but the two checks made me convinced we (or they both) were on draws. On the turn I didn't think AQ, and I didn't think he'd PFR & called a 3bet w/ like KJ or J9, so I figured I was still ahead even on the turn. But when they both called my 75% pot raise, I gulped.

No Brainer said:

As played I think we can call the river bet as we are actually favourites against a range of TT+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+

Click to expand...

How do you figure? Just looked at stove: with that range from the UTG, and w/ an 30% VPIP button villain (which is generous), looks like my equity is ~30, TUG ~50, BTN ~20. Am I doing this wrong?

rowhousepd said:

I checked the flop bc there were overcards and it was multiway on a drawy board. I was mostly afraid of the UTG who easily could have had a Q. But when everyone checked on the F and then UTG checked the T, I had to put in a good sized bet for value and to thin the herd.

Am I ok in this line of thinking?

Click to expand...

Checking the flop is fine as long as we can check/fold to any bet as we are beat here by most of villains betting range. Betting the turn to 'thin the herd' is not so great. Betting the turn for value is not the worst thing in the world as we will get some value from the flush draws and straight draws but I don't think there are all that many in the ranges of villains after they call a 3 bet (unless they are spazzmonkeys...). Just think, what calls the 3 bet that has a draw here? AK may call with a gutshot and 2 overs, ATd, maybe KTd and KJ for the open ended straight draw.

Against AQ, KQ we are just throwing money at them. I think I would prefer to check the turn, keep the pot small, re evaluate the river.

rowhousepd said:

How do you figure? Just looked at stove: with that range from the UTG, and w/ an 30% VPIP button villain (which is generous), looks like my equity is ~30, TUG ~50, BTN ~20. Am I doing this wrong?

Click to expand...

Sorry I wasn't accounting for the button, I was just looking at HU vs UTG.

Question, do you really think that BTN gets to the river with that whole 30% range? If his VPIP is 30% try going through the hand and eliminating parts of it that you think he will fold. eg will he call a 3 bet with that whole 30% or is that what he limps with? Will he call your turn bet with something like K5s?

Unfortunate that BTN is let to act but: call river.

If BTN raises then we can always punch our self in the face...

Double-A said:

If BTN raises then we can always punch our self in the face...

Click to expand...

I like this way of thinking, although I think the bet will put BTN all in anyway, he only has half stack

No Brainer said:

I like this way of thinking, although I think the bet will put BTN all in anyway, he only has half stack

Click to expand...

DOH!

Didn't see that... So, punch our self in the face FIRST and then call?

Yeh, that sounds like the best plan here.

Or if you don't want to do that, call, and then throw your keyboard through the screen...

No Brainer said:

Just because his PFR is 13 doesn't mean that we always put him on a 13% range. In this situation villain raised UTG so if villain is at all positionally aware we need to tighten this up. When he calls a 3 bet we can make it a little tighter as well although a lot of 5NL players will think that since it is a multiway pot they now have to call for value

Click to expand...

I've been looking at a bunch of players' 3bet stats in 5NL micros and it looks like while calling a 3bet cold isn't something people do very often (probably something like ~5%), calling a 3bet after they put in the preflop raise is a lot higher. I don't know if HEM has a specific stat for that, but as you mentioned above my hunch is that people will tend to call a 3bet because they think since the pot is bigger, their strong hand has more value. Does anyone have a take on this?

rowhousepd said:

I've been looking at a bunch of players' 3bet stats in 5NL micros and it looks like while calling a 3bet cold isn't something people do very often (probably something like ~5%), calling a 3bet after they put in the preflop raise is a lot higher. I don't know if HEM has a specific stat for that, but as you mentioned above my hunch is that people will tend to call a 3bet because they think since the pot is bigger, their strong hand has more value. Does anyone have a take on this?

Click to expand...

Follow up: Just did a little research (my database + pokertableratings.com.) At the micros, the average PRF is roughly ~10%. In HEM (& PT too, I believe) the vs. 3bet Call % refers to calling a 3bet after you already put in a PFR. The average for that is ~30% (which really is about the top 3% of a player's range).

So in the example above, that's about ~4-5%; he was probably hold TT+, AQs+, AKo ... and not surprisingly, that's spot on for this hand.

Three betting jacks is a risky play to UTG unless they are really loose, you are normally flipping at best in a big pot or taking down a small pot. I think you have to call the river and hope for the best. I would suspect you were more likely to be ahead until the jack hit...