$5 NLHE Full Ring: Line check for OOP play with TPGK and a gutshot

Hero (MP2) ($7.64)
MP3 ($5.64)
CO ($4.76)
Button ($2.58)
SB ($2.15)
BB ($4.95)
UTG ($2.97)
UTG+1 ($2.83)
MP1 ($3.34)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q , K
3 folds, Hero bets $0.20, MP3 calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.67) Q , 9 , 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.67, MP3 calls $0.67, 1 fold

Turn: ($2.01) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $2.01, Hero raises to $6.77 (All-In), MP3 calls $2.76 (All-In)

River: ($11.55) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $11.55 | Rake: $0.57

- Preflop both opponents snapcall my open.
- Flop MP3 snapcalls the cbet.

MP3 is unknown, this was maybe his 5th hand or so.

Now I have stats on him which are 19/5 (no 3bets) over 129 hands with 67% fold to cbet and 33% call cbet. Postflop AF 0.8 (19%) so definitely passive.

At this time considering he was unknown and his snap call preflop I am putting him in order of frequency on:
1) a pocket pair most of the time, even up to AA if he is one of those people who take weird lines with premiums
2) total air which wants to represent a made hand and float the turn if given the chance (purely because of the flop snap call, strong made hands like 2 pairs/sets would think about raising with this board)
3) some kind of straight draw, probably OESD
4) a flush draw, but I thought that this is not super likely here and besides I also have a decent flush draw (even open ended straight flush draw )
5) one pair hand which will also bet the turn pretty often to try and get a fold
6) a set (least likely since with this board I think sets raise the flop) or flopped straight (probably raises against possible flush draws)

On the turn I got 2nd nuts so I decided that he will most likely autobet a check here with pretty much anything since the board is perfect for bluffing while possibly folding to a 2nd barrel if he is drawing (OESD) or has a one pair/set made hand.

I need opinions on:
1. what could his hand be considering 2 snapcalls so far
2. optimal turn line against an unknown opponent:
a) bet/call or bet and shove river
b) bet/fold or check/fold just for completion purposes, I don't see this as a good choice really since I fear only AK and made flushes against which I likely have outs
c) check/raise or check/call + shove river
3. Against a passive guy like this one (now that I know his stats), I suppose just bet turn every time right? Best sizing of turn bet? Fold to raise?

Results below:

I don't think check-shoving was optimal. Like, he could be betting air sure, but what could he call a check/jam with that you beat?

Well, it is the turn and these guys call if they have outs since the pot is big at that point. If I just check call and another heart falls, then I hate everything since I am losing to A and K high one card flushes (while against those hands I chop or win if they miss).

But yes this is questionable so that is why I asked the question

LD1977 said:

Well, it is the turn and these guys call if they have outs since the pot is big at that point. If I just check call and another heart falls, then I hate everything since I am losing to A and K high one card flushes (while against those hands I chop or win if they miss).

But yes this is questionable so that is why I asked the question

Click to expand...

Well like... A high and K high flushes are gonna be like 8 combos or something at worst. If the Ah or Kh completes a straight then you're beating a random K or A and a baby flush at that point. If not you're still beating baby flushes. Do you think he can bet or bluffcatch river with a baby flush? Coz even if he can just bet 8h and 7h you're beating his range.

Thing is, I actually planned this line figuring he calls with worse a lot and unless I intend to fold turn I am kind of pot committed here too... Hard to fold a straight if I believe my estimate on his holdings (which I did and it turned out correct, he most likely planned to float with his overcards).

Anyway, lets go back to the original questions:

"I need opinions on:
1. what could his hand be considering 2 snapcalls so far

2. optimal turn line against an unknown opponent:
a) bet/call or bet and shove river
b) bet/fold or check/fold just for completion purposes, I don't see this as a good choice really since I fear only AK and made flushes against which I likely have outs
c) check/raise or check/call + shove river

3. Against a passive guy like this one (now that I know his stats), I suppose just bet turn every time right? Best sizing of turn bet? Fold to raise?"

I double barrel this for 3/4 pot. Your pot bet and checkshove is overvalueing your hand in both cases.

TPGK is not very strong at all on that flop, the hands we beat have a lot of equity whilst there are alot of straight, twopairs and sets that crush our soul.
The turn 8x is very unlikely to pot the turn, villain won't have much 8x and most villains stacking range will be flushes and splits.

What do I do if I double barrel it and he raises the turn?

LD1977 said:

What do I do if I double barrel it and he raises the turn?

Click to expand...

Assuming you used the smaller sizing, fold. Your either splitting or dead.

Thanks. I really butchered this one on the turn and got what I deserved.