$5 NLHE Full Ring: JJ vs Villain pre-flop raise

L

LeGenie

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 55/27/1.5

Hey guys just want some feedback on a hand that I recently played. Thanks in advance!

P1(MP) $5.18 - VP:23 PFR:8 AF:0.9 W:38|25 STL:13|100 3B:0|0 CB:50|40 N:0.37 hands:77
P3(CO) $3.96 - VP:55 PFR:27 AF:1.5 W:17|0 STL:50|0 3B:0|0 CB:67| N:-0.45 Hands:11
Me(UTG) $13.34 - VP:23 PFR:18 AF:8.4 W:19|59 STL:52|92 3B:2|80 CB:100|75 N:14.08 Hands:712
P5(BTN) $6.25 - VP:32 PFR:12 AF:2.3 W:25|50 STL:33|67 3B:0| CB:0|50 N:0.33 Hands:25
P7(SB) $3.12 - VP:35 PFR:6 AF:1.7 W:38|67 STL:0|67 3B:0| CB:100| N:-0.95 Hands:17
P9(BB) $5 - VP:0 PFR:0 AF: W: STL: 3B:0| CB: N:-0.05 Hands:1


Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [Jd,Jh]
P1(MP) folds, P3(CO) raises 0.17, Me(UTG) raises 0.58, P5(BTN) folds, P7(SB) folds, P9(BB) folds, P3(CO) calls 0.41


Flop: (2s,Tc,7c) (2 players)
P3(EP) bets 3.38, Me(LP) folds


Turn: (,)



Final:
Returns 3.38 to P3(CO)
P3(CO) wins 1.17
 
vinnie

vinnie

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I think you have the descriptions wrong next to the hands. You appear to be CO in this hand, P3 appears to be MP. The action pre-flop goes UTG -> MP -> CO -> BTN -> SB -> BB.

You have an SPR of 2.9 here and an over-pair against what appears to be a very aggressive opponent (over a tiny sample) on a decent board for him to semi-bluff.

That said, you need almost 43% equity to call his shove. I don't know if I can find a range he's shoving here that we are good against.

{TT+,77,22,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc,AcTc,KcTc,QcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Qc9c,Jc9c} gives us 21.5% equity. Of course, he needs to be calling a 3-bet with over 14% of his hands, probably even more of his hands to really have some of these (Q9s for example) in his range.

Even if he is shoving a lot of overs, as well as his draws, we barely get over 45% equity. I hate it, but I would probably fold here as well. I would need to be sure he's shoving this with a lot of random holdings to call.

Would be interested in a more in-depth look as what his range here probably is. I'm assuming he's shoving sets, Overs+Flush-draw, and Over-pairs as the majority of his range. Might be that I have him on too tight a range.
 
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LeGenie

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I think you have the descriptions wrong next to the hands. You appear to be CO in this hand, P3 appears to be MP. The action pre-flop goes UTG -> MP -> CO -> BTN -> SB -> BB.

You have an SPR of 2.9 here and an over-pair against what appears to be a very aggressive opponent (over a tiny sample) on a decent board for him to semi-bluff.

That said, you need almost 43% equity to call his shove. I don't know if I can find a range he's shoving here that we are good against.

{TT+,77,22,AcKc,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc,AcTc,KcTc,QcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Qc9c,Jc9c} gives us 21.5% equity. Of course, he needs to be calling a 3-bet with over 14% of his hands, probably even more of his hands to really have some of these (Q9s for example) in his range.

Even if he is shoving a lot of overs, as well as his draws, we barely get over 45% equity. I hate it, but I would probably fold here as well. I would need to be sure he's shoving this with a lot of random holdings to call.

Would be interested in a more in-depth look as what his range here probably is. I'm assuming he's shoving sets, Overs+Flush-draw, and Over-pairs as the majority of his range. Might be that I have him on too tight a range.

Hey Vinnie thanks for the analysis. I was just wondering how you got 2.9 regarding SPR and 43% equity needed to call his All-In shove
 
vinnie

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The SPR is the Stack to Pot Ratio (typically referring to that ratio at the time of the flop). When you saw the flop, the effective remaining stacks were $3.38 (doesn't matter that you had more than that, smallest stack counts) and the pot was $1.17. 3.38 / 1.17 = 2.9, typically, we want to get all-in (or at least don't mind getting all-in) when heads-up with top-pair or an over-pair with SPRs of 3 or less. Obviously that depends on how the money goes in and the board.

Now, to get the equity needed, I take the amount you need to call $3.38 and divide it by the amount you will win ($3.38 [your bet] + $3.38 [his bet] + $1.17 [the pot before his bet]) = $7.93. $3.38 / $7.93 = 0.426 = 42.6%.

That is the amount of times you need to win to break even.
 
Aces2w1n

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The whole SPR is something I never use in my game or if I do i'm very unaware of it... Is there a link somewhere someone knows of I could read up?
 
vinnie

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The whole SPR is something I never use in my game or if I do i'm very unaware of it... Is there a link somewhere someone knows of I could read up?

SPR is a concept that changed my game. As far as I know, the best place to learn about it is "Professional No Limit Hold'em: Vol 1" by Matt Flynn, Sunny Mehta, and Ed Miller. There's probably other places online that mention it. It's become a common concept. But, I would highly recommend buying the book and reading it through. Amazon has it used for less than $11 plus shipping.
 
Aces2w1n

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Thanks.. I'll have a search for it.
 
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baudib1

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This is a super snap call. It is not close. Assigning villain a range in which most of his value range is TT+ is simply ridiculous. I'd include almost none of TT+ -- he is shoving QQ+ pre, JJ we obviously discount and it's extremely unlikely he open shoves a set.

Since this guy probably never folds to 3-bets and we don't have a club, he has a massive amount of draws and all sorts of Tx. I expect to be behind on this flop almost never.

I included a few combos of QQ and some sets and have our equity at 71%

Board: Tc 7c 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.949% 28.39% 00.56% 28104 556.00 { QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, JJ, 99-77, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KJs-KTs, QcJc, QTs-Q7s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 71.051% 70.49% 00.56% 69784 556.00 { JdJh }
 
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LeGenie

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The SPR is the Stack to Pot Ratio (typically referring to that ratio at the time of the flop). When you saw the flop, the effective remaining stacks were $3.38 (doesn't matter that you had more than that, smallest stack counts) and the pot was $1.17. 3.38 / 1.17 = 2.9, typically, we want to get all-in (or at least don't mind getting all-in) when heads-up with top-pair or an over-pair with SPRs of 3 or less. Obviously that depends on how the money goes in and the board.

Now, to get the equity needed, I take the amount you need to call $3.38 and divide it by the amount you will win ($3.38 [your bet] + $3.38 [his bet] + $1.17 [the pot before his bet]) = $7.93. $3.38 / $7.93 = 0.426 = 42.6%.

That is the amount of times you need to win to break even.

Thanks Vinnie I really appreciate it. I will def add that to my arsenal :)
 
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LeGenie

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This is a super snap call. It is not close. Assigning villain a range in which most of his value range is TT+ is simply ridiculous. I'd include almost none of TT+ -- he is shoving QQ+ pre, JJ we obviously discount and it's extremely unlikely he open shoves a set.

Since this guy probably never folds to 3-bets and we don't have a club, he has a massive amount of draws and all sorts of Tx. I expect to be behind on this flop almost never.

I included a few combos of QQ and some sets and have our equity at 71%

Board: Tc 7c 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.949% 28.39% 00.56% 28104 556.00 { QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, JJ, 99-77, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KJs-KTs, QcJc, QTs-Q7s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 71.051% 70.49% 00.56% 69784 556.00 { JdJh }

Thanks Baudib1 :) By the way are you using Poker Stove to calculate equity?
 
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