$5 NLHE Full Ring: JJ terrible turn card facing shove on river

J

Jreece18

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$5 NLHE Full Ring: JJ terrible turn card facing shove on river

888 Poker - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 97.4 BB (VPIP: 28.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 26)
BB: 40.8 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 16)
UTG: 40 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
Hero (UTG+1): 101.8 BB
MP: 53.2 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 8.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.00, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 3.49, Hands: 502)
BTN: 87.2 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J<font color='red'>♥</font> J<font color='red'>♦</font>

fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, CO raises to 12 BB, fold, SB calls 11.6 BB, fold, Hero calls 8 BB

Flop: (37 BB, 3 players) K<font color='red'>♥</font> J<font color='black'>♣</font> K<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB checks, Hero bets 20 BB, CO calls 20 BB, fold

Turn: (77 BB, 2 players) K<font color='red'>♦</font>
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (77 BB, 2 players) 5<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero checks, CO bets 68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 68 BB


My comments may make the outcome obvious. Was this a bad call on the river? I'm kind of thinking I should have let go, as hard as that would've been. From the shove I am basically only beating a bluff... AQ? I don't even feel like this was the kind of player to call AQ OTF. May seem like I'm posting this because of a bad beat, but I seriously think I should've let go on the river.
 
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B

braveslice

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If you are 15/10 player, most likely range for CO pre to 3bet is something like {AA,KK,AKs}, it’s tighter than normal because your position is early and because you open 4bb. I don’t see him to call OTF multiway anything but made hands, so I don’t see any bluffs OTR. But he always has 10% buffs right? So we should add one combination of bluffs, let say AhQh and we have still 12% equity and we should still fold.

If he is a plyer who 3bets TT we have the odds to call the river too, but given the tight 3bet image he has this is unlikely, also if you table image is loose fish then again there might be a reason to call river.
 
TimovieMan

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Assign ranges and this becomes very easy.

He 3-bets less than 4%, so his range is basically QQ+/AK.

I'm assuming that range c-bets, so I check-raise the flop.

Once that turn comes, you're dead in the water vs his range. The check-through and river shove indicates he has AK here. Fold.
 
fletchdad

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That is the nastiest turn card one could want.

Sadly I read the other comments before I posted. (I try not to do that so I can comment only on my personal assumptions and opinions).

But all has been said that is pertinent to this hand IMO. I agree, c/r the flop, as he is almost always going to bet this flop with his range. Turn sucks, but given the amount of times he will have a Kin his range, well, in your shoes I say "FML" and am done putting money in.

He is not betting OTR if you are not in bad shape. He is also going to check AA and QQ behind, so the amount of bluffs/worse hands that bet here are close enough to nonexistent that a fold is *sigh* pretty much your best bet.

In the future, please keep your comments such that the outcome of the hand is not so transparent. He obviously had AK here. He could have had AA-QQ, but those are not what he had reading your comments. It is just as good to post the results, which it is better if you dont do.

You could just post the hand till his river bet and then simply ask "And hero does what now?" with no extra comments except your view on how you see him and how you think he sees you, if you know what I mean.
 
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Jreece18

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Hadn't spotted that I donked the flop. Probably could've check raised. Should've folded the river as I thought, but was mildly tilting being down 5BI in one session. Aces preflop all in vs AKs, flops nut flush as an example. Been on a 5k breakeven stretch...


In the future, please keep your comments such that the outcome of the hand is not so transparent. He obviously had AK here. He could have had AA-QQ, but those are not what he had reading your comments. It is just as good to post the results, which it is better if you dont do.

You could just post the hand till his river bet and then simply ask "And hero does what now?" with no extra comments except your view on how you see him and how you think he sees you, if you know what I mean.

I usually do, but I feel like my comments still always make the results so transparent haha. Maybe I should put them under a spoiler.
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

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:top:


Edit: fletch, do you realize that AA and QQ beat us as well? As it almost sounds like you don't...


Yea, I guess it was moot. I was just commenting on the fact that we know EXACTLY what he had from the comments, but you are right, as far as ranges go, it doesent make any difference.
 
Omahahahaha

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c/c is the best approach on the flop but leading is fine too (with the intent of calling a raise) since it looks pretty bluffy. Problem is even if your line looks fos villain is still just going to fold if he has a hi.
 
John A

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Assign ranges and this becomes very easy.

He 3-bets less than 4%, so his range is basically QQ+/AK.

I'm assuming that range c-bets, so I check-raise the flop.

Once that turn comes, you're dead in the water vs his range. The check-through and river shove indicates he has AK here. Fold.

Good job Tim. I wouldn't CR the flop here MW though. No point in doing so really. But yeah, the river is a fold. Pretty easy to access like you said when you look at how tight he is, his low 3-bet%, and how the hand played out.
 
Trabendo_daze

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No other hands make it to the river and play this way except Kx. We have to sigh-fold :(
 
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