$5 NLHE Full Ring: How often am i facing AK here??

$5 NL HE Full Ring: How often am i facing AK here??

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/12/7

Stats are over the 68 hands i have on him in my DB.

Full Tilt, $0.02/$0.05 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP1: $4.88 (97.6 bb)
MP2: $10.02 (200.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $5.46 (109.2 bb)
CO: $9.91 (198.2 bb)
BTN: $7.22 (144.4 bb)
SB: $6.34 (126.8 bb)
BB: $13.56 (271.2 bb)
UTG+1: $9.93 (198.6 bb)
UTG+2: $5.07 (101.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with A:spade: Q:club:
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.15, CO folds, BTN calls $0.15, SB folds, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.62) 6:heart: A:club: 5:spade: (4 players)
BB bets $0.10, UTG+2 raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, BTN folds, BB folds

Turn: ($1.72) 6:spade: (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $1.20, Hero??

I thought i'd float the flop, i'd raise the BB's donkbet with anything so i thought i'd see what he did on the turn, didnt want to start building a huge pot with a 3bet anyways and when he fires again on the turn i just get the feeling that he's raised with AK, it was an EP raise.

Checked my pop-up after this hand and his EP raising range is 5%, that includes AJs but i'm either beat by AK or splitting with AQ here right??

I call the turn with the intention of folding to a sizable river barrel (anything over ~half pot).

While I am not a proponent of "small sample sizes are meaningless" because I believe they do define player types and hold weight over no read, they can not be used to define ranges with this sample size. 68 hands means you probably have villain raising 1/20 hands from EP meaning they are likely tight from EP (if stats by position show extreme positional awareness, I might give villain a little more credit) but putting them strictly on a 5% range is a mistake.

to answer your first question .. i dont think you are facing AK here very often at all.. i also think you are ahead here.. i would call this and call any river bet. the hand that would scare me the most would be the villian having 5-5 and set mining and hitting.

WurlyQ said:

I call the turn with the intention of folding to a sizable river barrel (anything over ~half pot).

While I am not a proponent of "small sample sizes are meaningless" because I believe they do define player types and hold weight over no read, they can not be used to define ranges with this sample size. 68 hands means you probably have villain raising 1/20 hands from EP meaning they are likely tight from EP (if stats by position show extreme positional awareness, I might give villain a little more credit) but putting them strictly on a 5% range is a mistake.

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How many hands do you really need on someone then before you can start making good reads with your HUD??

It's just that with the amount of traffic online you don't get a heap of hands on the majority of villains. You get plenty on the nitty reg's but they're easy to exploit, whereas fishy villains can put you in some awkward spots and they're the ones that you'd really like a large sample size from.

I know it's different for each stat but how many hands do you like having on villains before relying too much on the HUD??

orangepeeleo said:

How many hands do you really need on someone then before you can start making good reads with your HUD??

It's just that with the amount of traffic online you don't get a heap of hands on the majority of villains. You get plenty on the nitty reg's but they're easy to exploit, whereas fishy villains can put you in some awkward spots and they're the ones that you'd really like a large sample size from.

I know it's different for each stat but how many hands do you like having on villains before relying too much on the HUD??

Click to expand...

The short answer is: Several hundred (or until you get ~100 hands from EP)*. I know this sucks and won't happen too often at the micro limits but narrowing a range based on a small sample size will get you in a lot of trouble. While this won't help in this hand because I think that someone who raises ATs, AJo, AJs from EP always barrels two streets, narrowing ranges should be more a process of giving them a fairly safe opening range and then narrowing it based on later street play.

At the micro limits, HUD stats should be used primarily to identify player types as well as exploitable tendencies such as "Fold big blind to steal of 100% over 8 attempts" or "WTSD of 10%, W$SD of 100%, and W$WSF of 10% over 20 flops seen" once you start looking at combinations of stats.

I don't know how many tables you play, but picking actual reads is crucial for later street play (which is when most of the money goes in at the micros). Knowing that villain floated your flop and turn barrel with a gutshot is much more important information than "Fold to flop cbet of 50% (20)" and "Fold to turn cbet of 40% (5)" over a 50 hand sample size.

*Disclaimer: I realize this several hundred number is somewhat arbitrary but solving the problem: "Knowing that villain has raised 1/20 hands from EP, what is the the probability that their true EP raising raise is less than x%" is a complicated problem even if you make some simple assumptions that may not hold true. The several hundred number is based on some math and logic but I must admit there was some feel involved.