$5 NLHE Full Ring: Fold with top 2?

Y

YungJellie

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 11, 2017
Total posts
11
Chips
0
Hi guys, id like your opinion on this hand i played today




PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


MP: 75.2 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, hands: 16)
MP+1: 40.2 BB (VPIP: 40.30, PFR: 25.76, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 68)
CO: 181.4 BB (VPIP: 8.77, PFR: 6.14, 3Bet Preflop: 1.89, Hands: 115)
BTN: 115 BB (VPIP: 21.57, PFR: 9.80, 3Bet Preflop: 2.50, Hands: 209)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: 114.2 BB (VPIP: 23.36, PFR: 11.68, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 137)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
Hero (UTG+1): 100 BB


SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A


fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, MP+1 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB


Flop: (12.4 BB, 4 players) 2 A K
BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 6 BB, fold


Turn: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 12 BB, MP+1 raises to 31.2 BB and is all-in, fold


MP+1 wins 46.4 BB





To me this screams flush, what do you think?
Thanks in advance,
YungJellie
 
Alucard

Alucard

Santoryu
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2017
Total posts
3,235
Chips
0
easy call for me anyday vs a shortstack. I'm quite surprised with the fold.
Also I'd bet bigger both flop & turn
 
P

PezPlaysPoker

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 19, 2017
Total posts
40
Chips
0
If his stack was larger I would say fold. Because his stack is short I would call.

We need around 22% I think to breakeven (please correct me if I'm wrong, maths ain't my strong point)

It is likely he could have a flush, but because he's not fullstacked or topping up his chips, I can label him as a weak player. Do we have enough hands that he could do this with which we beat?

I would say he does this with A2 / A5 for sure. There's 6 combos each for 12 total.

Seeing as the A and K are on the board, we can ignore AX and KX suited hands and that leaves suited connectors that have made flushes (87s 98s etc) maybe some suited gappers so there's a lot less flush hands he could have.

If he has 12 combo at least that we beat, he would need to be holding 36 types of hands where he hits a flush. If he has those types of hands, then we can also add hands like K5s and K2s which hit two pair but not a flush.

I would not be surprised if he has the flush. But I think he has enough hands that we beat in his range to make the call and be +EV long term.
 
P

PezPlaysPoker

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 19, 2017
Total posts
40
Chips
0
Actually he would need more combos than 36 to beat us. It's 47 combos right?
 
Folding in Poker
Top