$5 NLHE Full Ring: Flush vs NIT

$5 NL HE Full Ring: Flush vs NIT

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 7/1/4

Would like some thoughts on how this hand played out.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($9.50)
BB ($3.46)
UTG ($6.16)
UTG+1 ($5.02)
UTG+2 ($11.46)
MP1 ($4.81)
Hero ($10.29)
BTN ($1.93)

Dealt to Hero A♥ J♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, BB calls $0.15

FLOP ($0.42) 5♥ 7♥ Q♥

BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB raises to $0.76, Hero calls $0.46

TURN ($1.94) 5♥ 7♥ Q♥ 5♠

BB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($1.94) 5♥ 7♥ Q♥ 5♠ T♥

BB bets $0.74, Hero raises to $2.70, BB calls $1.76 (AI)

Not getting any love, so here more info and some questions...

Villain - 65bbs Playing 7/1/4.0 and calling my pre flop raise oop
From HEM of 150 hands I get that he has called raisers from the blinds 5% of the time and most of his vpip is made up from limping.

Ill give him a range of 5%, I would take out AA, KK but he has raised only once in 150 hands so I think he would more likely try to slowplay them.

88+ AKo AJs KQs

Preflop I raise with AJo from cutoff into 3 tight players, expecting to take the blinds. Villain calls from the BB

The flop comes Q75, all hearts.

The most likely way for villain to hit this board is pairing his Q, maybe AQ or KQ. Or having a pocket pair with a heart in it.
I have a nut flush draw with an overcard that may be good for nothing if villain is holding AQ.

villain checks to me and I bet 3/4 pot.

Villain then raises my bet in an act of aggression that is very suprising.

Now the only real hands I can see are QQ or maybe KJ hearts?

I call the raise as I am getting decent odds.

Turn comes blank, Villain checks and I check behind in case he is trying to check raise on the turn as well.

River comes T hearts and villain decides to bet at me again. Since I have the nut flush I go and put him all in and he calls.



Questions.

Am I reading to much into his stats after 150 hands?

Are there any other hands that you could put him on when he raised my flop bet?

When he bets into me on the river, should I be pushing him all in or just calling the bet?

Reading too much? I don't think so, 150 hands is enough for a basic picture - he's tight passive pf, a little agg postflop - but someone who's that tight pf is playing some pretty strong hands, so agg postflop isn't surprising.

I don't see a lot of sc's in his range other than AK and KQ, so imo his range after the flop raise is a KhQ/KhJh flush, a set, or a pair w a flush draw.

Call the river. Shoving folds out virtually everything we're ahead of (with reads that villain's a loose passive fish I might think differently, maybe bare trips calls, maybe KJs calls, but I think it's slim - KQs will be worried about the nut flush and a fh, and I don't think that's the majority of villain's range here) and nothing that we're behind.

i think shoving is fine, hard to see how he has a FH here.

"Ill give him a range of 5%, I would take out AA, KK but he has raised only once in 150 hands so I think he would more likely try to slowplay them.

88+ AKo AJs KQs"

Depending on what you've seen him show down with, I'd consider the possibility the ~5% range is just all pairs. 7/1 looks like complete setminer who raises super premiums only.

d'wilius said:

Depending on what you've seen him show down with, I'd consider the possibility the ~5% range is just all pairs. 7/1 looks like complete setminer who raises super premiums only.

Click to expand...

Never really thought about putting someone on just pairs but it does make sense when you put it like that.